A couple of days ago, the models were showing wall to wall cold. Everybody was happy. Now, they're showing a breakdown (which, if even true in the first place, is unclear in duration). Anxiety is creeping in. The magnitude of emotional swings with weather is greater than Bastardi's bathtub sloshing! This winter is probably going to be quite variable.
Pluses are a -EPO, a favorable MJO phase, coldest anoms on our side of the globe, a cold Canada, a building snowpack north/northwest of us and the fact that we have seen blocking and snowflakes already this winter. Minuses are obviously the depiction of a SE ridge in the LR, a -PNA depiction, lack of blocking in the medium range, and the typical fear of typical "Nina climo" cancelling the rest of winter.
I don't see any solid reason to expect another anomalously warm winter with few winter storm chances. The models are going to oscillate quiet a lot this season. It's time to pull up the bootstraps and settle in for the fun times ahead. Because when it's all said and done, I believe there are going to be a lot of happy people in weather forum land.
