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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Rain Cold said:
We really gotta get rid of some of these big red Ls up near the Lakes. I know they're not the be all end all, but they are generally not very helpful. I like the potential in the pattern though. Not boring. I also like your other post about the warm-up not being as vigorous as advertised earlier. A lot of good winters behave that way. Usually, we get the opposite. I like how we're starting off.
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SnowNiner said:
Would this weekends potential be any colder than this last weekend? East of the mountains still seems to not have a good cold air source.
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The cold air source would be in-situ in this case. It would be driven by a combination of dynamic cooling, evaporative cooling and sublimation aloft from falling raindrops and snowflakes respectively, melting hydrometeors, and with a fresh snow cover in relatively close proximity to the Carolinas, any cold air advection over this fresh snowpack on the backend of a coastal low could provide a really legitimate source of low level cold air even if we don't have a nice cold high over New England to support it just given how close the southern edge of the snowpack is on the eastern seaboard... It obviously by no means guarantees that we would be cold enough to get a substantial snowfall out of this but it certainly helps a lot, and is a far more promising setup for east-central NC than the last event which had no source of cold air other than in-situ dynamic cooling w/ the southern edge of the snowpack held in check north of the Canadian border
 
Do you guys know how incredible it would be if the 12Z GFS' western ridge's +50 dm 500 mb anomaly in NW Canada were to verify on 12/23? You read that right, +50 dm! You don't need to be pinched.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is trying really hard to bring the southern stream upper level trough out of the southwestern US this run...
View attachment 2000
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THIS! Most modeling, even the JMA has that energy hanging back there in the SW. If that were to kick out, there will be a much larger system for everyone.

I wrote it off because basically, every model is cutting it off and hanging it back.
 
Shawn said:
THIS! Most modeling, even the JMA has that energy hanging back there in the SW. If that were to kick out, there will be a much larger system for everyone.

I wrote it off because basically, every model is cutting it off and hanging it back.
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Yeah we would have a much more formidable system in that case... The entire upper level trough doesn't have to kick out for us to score but if a decent piece of it emerges and the entire trough base slows up a touch and amplifies like we saw inside day 5 for our last system, we'll be in a good spot.
 
This is a cool map that Ryan has working on the new (free) Euro site. You can see here how the majority gets left behind and the shear mess over the carolina from the lead wave. Like Eric says, if we can at least get some of that energy involved back there, there's a chance someone int he upper South could score something interesting.

ecmwf_sim_ir_conus_96.png
 
Here was the next frame of the above map:
ecmwf_sim_ir_conus_102.png
 
Should be interesting to see what this EPS suite looks like, the last run had a decent number of members giving NC and VA some light snow from this clipper Wednesday night into Thursday
eps_tsnow_24m_se_15.png
 
12z EPS looks even better w/ our clipper system Wednesday night into early Thursday for VA and NC...
Even though this is a clipper and the overall setup is very fickle, might be about time to make a thread given it's only about 72 hours out
eps_tsnow_24m_nc_13.png
 
It appears 2010 was the last time we had multiple winter storms here in December. Had snow on Dec 4 and 15, and then of course the epic Christmas storm. Maybe this December is setting up to be similar.
 
JB thinks it will be another gulf to Atlantic I-95 type storm this weekend. He says the GFS will correct west and the Euro East, considering their biases, and also that not all of the energy will hold back like the ECMWF shows but transit eastward (at least a piece of it)
 
Brick Tamland said:
It appears 2010 was the last time we had multiple winter storms here in December. Had snow on Dec 4 and 15, and then of course the epic Christmas storm. Maybe this December is setting up to be similar.
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Falls Lake had a great post about that just a bit ago on the other board.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It appears 2010 was the last time we had multiple winter storms here in December. Had snow on Dec 4 and 15, and then of course the epic Christmas storm. Maybe this December is setting up to be similar.
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RDU has received a trace (or more) of snow by mid December (~ 16th) 42 times since record keeping began in 1887 (or about ~30-35% of the time), certainly a higher figure than what I even realized. Interestingly, Raleigh has observed 3 snowfalls (including trace events) before mid December 16 times (10-15% of the time, most recently in 2013), 4 snowfalls 3 times (<5% of the time), and in the NINA winter of 1903-04, it snowed in Raleigh five separate times by mid-December, here's what happened statewide in 4 of those events. They were all nickels and dimes at best but to snow on several separate occasions so early in the winter is a feat few, if any winters can boast in the last few centuries here...

October 24-25 1903 NC Snowmap.png
November 25-28 1903 NC Snowmap.png
December 1-3 1903 NC Snowmap.png
December 9-10 1903 NC Snowmap.png
 
Catfish said:
Thomas County-way down by FL border. I’ve driven through there.
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Spent every summer, spring break, fall break, Christmas and any other time I was not in school from age 4 to 27 working on our farm just west of there, or quail hunting or bass fishin' ... still do, but a bit less yet now that I have an office to run ...
 
Storm5 said:
Where in Boston?
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Something about not surprised to see Winter weather all the way to the Gulf coast again.

In fact, he spoke more of the South than anything in the North. Said the GEFS is wrong with it's -PNA vs -EPO signatures. PNA should respond and go at least Neutral to Positive.

Edit: One more thing, said the EPS handles things much better in this regard, and of course, he showed how it had a very positive +PNA towards Christmas with cold air pouring into the East.
 
Shawn said:
Something about not surprised to see Winter weather all the way to the Gulf coast again.

In fact, he spoke more of the South than anything in the North. Said the GEFS is wrong with it's -PNA vs -EPO signatures. PNA should respond and go at least Neutral to Positive.

Edit: One more thing, said the EPS handles things much better in this regard, and of course, he showed how it had a very positive +PNA towards Christmas with cold air pouring into the East.
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Screen_Shot_2017-12-11_at_6.28.25_PM.png
 
Shawn said:
JB basically, says there will be ice & snow around Christmas. I'll hold him to that, this time. Let's see!

Dec 20-Jan 5th.
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18 GFS says, he may be wrong!
 
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