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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

I think the man is right to an extent. There's going to be something around Christmas for the upper South at least. Maybe the TN area or something.
 
Shawn said:
I think the man is right to an extent. There's going to be something around Christmas for the upper South at least. Maybe the TN area or something.
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When he starts talking snow in Cuba, I might get a light freeze ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
When he starts talking snow in Cuba, I might get a light freeze ... o_O
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I saw on TWC this morning y'all hit 28, and were under hard freeze warning
 
Tarheel1 said:
I saw on TWC this morning y'all hit 28, and were under hard freeze warning
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26º IMBY; heavy frost ...
But that was/is not the point ... ;)
(I very seldom am direct, as folks don't think/reflect on direct comments ... :eek:)
 
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Stormlover said:
So? One off run of the GFS means nothing. It's fake news, like your logo.
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If it had showed everybody on the board getting 12" of snow, then there would be 5 pages of high fives and ramblings , so I guess it's whatever your into and how good or bad each op run is or is not
 
I never see any real reasons (other than rumors and the cliche points) about the NAM or 18z runs of the American models being bad.

With that said, it's obvious, they are going to change their minds and show different solutions more than other guidance because they run 4 times a day versus models like the Euro running twice.
 
From Robert at WxSouth We are almost to the point of "The 12 Days of Christmas", and in tonight's long range Synoptic Outlook at my blog, I take a long look ahead to Christmas and beyond.
This pattern reminds me of the Winter of 2013/14 and 14/15, where Tall Western Ridges showed up time and again. The models are doing it again, and it fits the pattern of a Warm Arctic in progress. The next few days and up until Christmas will feature back and forth cool-warmer-then cool- A Zonal, West to East type of flow. But by near Christmas, they all build a very tall western Ridge again, which would shove a cold, if not Bitter, airmass into the nation at some point near then. Before then though, the few days leading up to Christmas will bring above normal temps to the Southeast, on southwest winds. We also have a very decent rain event next weekend. Who says La Nina Winters are warm, dry and Snowless? My theory for the Winter is repeating blocking, repeating west Coast Ridges, and variability, but with above normal snowfall chances in the Southeast. With so many waves topping that western ridge in the west, it's only a matter of time before once again, we see another Winter Storm affect the South--just like the Winters of 13/14 and 14/15.
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the +PNA party slowly disintegrates after Christmas... we'll see if the other models/ensembles follow suit in coming days... Re-up this pattern for early/mid Jan for Winter last hurrah? Who knows, maybe a shadow, or Anthony Masiello knows....
 
Meteorologist1999 said:

Did that storm every played out
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Jan 17, 2017, the day you referred to in your video, was ironically the exact opposite: it was a blowtorch with 75 at ATL and 77 at CHS! It was also surrounded by other warm days.

Edit: I was assuming he was talking about 1/17/17. But it was actually 1/17/16. So, he actually did quite well! I was corrected down below this about the year and then I corrected this post.
 
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Stormlover said:
next sunday is 10 to 15 days out? he doesn't know how many days it is? bwahahahhaha
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Yes, something's off about his counting and also he was very wrong about 1/17/17 as I pointed out, but do you need to be ugly to him and make fun of him? What does that accomplish?

Edit: He was referring to 1/17/16 rather than 1/17/17. So, it turns out he did very well!
 
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Stormlover said:
next sunday is 10 to 15 days out? he doesn't know how many days it is? bwahahahhaha
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January 17, 2016, was what I was talking about at the recording of the video the models were hinting at 10 to 15-day time frame when recording. You should take time to understand sometimes before responding.
 
GaWx said:
Yes, something's off about his counting and also he was very wrong about 1/17/17 as I pointed out, but do you need to be ugly to him and make fun of him? What does that accomplish?
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Thanks so much. The video was posted on January 8th 2016, and I was explaining to my viewers that several models were calling for some wintry precipitation for the upper south and how it was going to likely change because it was still 10-15 days out.
 
Stormlover said:
you are worrying about the ridge? Did you move back to Bama? lol I guess you are saying you think it shuns all the cold air to the midwest and northeast...eh
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nah I was making a post to convey for yall what it showed(since most of yall live over there)

I dont believe anything at this range, just looking for signals of cold/stormy which its been consistent there
 
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Meteorologist1999 said:
Thanks so much. The video was posted on January 8th 2016, and I was explaining to my viewers that several models were calling for some wintry precipitation for the upper south and how it was going to likely change because it was still 10-15 days out.
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I apologize for assuming it was last January. My error. It turns out you did well after all as most of NC as well as parts of TN and N GA had a light wintry event after all on 1/17/16! Nice job!
 
Hey, I love people south of me got snow, but Dalton, 30 miles south of CHA got 3 inches, and my house in North Chatt got a dusting that melted away in hours.. it hurts a lil bit.
 
whamby said:
Hey, I love people south of me got snow, but Dalton, 30 miles south of CHA got 3 inches, and my house in North Chatt got a dusting that melted away in hours.. it hurts a lil bit.
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lol hey I was happy for them too, I know they were due for it and it had to happen some day, but still

if I hadn't doubted the models so much I could have snow chased at the beach :rolleyes:
 
whamby said:
Hey, I love people south of me got snow, but Dalton, 30 miles south of CHA got 3 inches, and my house in North Chatt got a dusting that melted away in hours.. it hurts a lil bit.
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try getting one inch ( 0 at my house went to aunts) and knowing that just to your northwest 30 miles 10 inches covers the ground... if i had a reliable means of transportation i would of chased this.. hell, i should of just risked it.. worse thing that would of happened would be me stranded on the side of the road..
 
EastAtlwx said:
try getting one inch ( 0 at my house went to aunts) and knowing that just to your northwest 30 miles 10 inches covers the ground... if i had a reliable means of transportation i would of chased this.. hell, i should of just risked it.. worse thing that would of happened would be me stranded on the side of the road..
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it was like the perfect snow to chase too since most of the roads were wet :p

I won't lie when I saw 5 inches reported in College Station I briefly checked google maps to see how far it was even though I was working the next day lmao

I'm gonna be a bit bitter until it snows here lmao
 
SE ridging continues to rear its ugly head in
the 11-15 day ensemble runs, even now on the 0Z EPS. Hopefully, this will reverse soon and is due to a bias. We'll see.
 
Brent said:
it was like the perfect snow to chase too since most of the roads were wet :p

I won't lie when I saw 5 inches reported in College Station I briefly checked google maps to see how far it was even though I was working the next day lmao

I'm gonna be a bit bitter until it snows here lmao
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atlanta traffic was horrible that day but it would of been worth it.... i also was going to drive up to a friends house in dahlonega. and my car is sketchy too lol
 
I went to Texas A&M for a one year, lived in Central and SE Tx for most my childhood.. that's a lifetime storm for that area. I remember I was in high school living in Austin in the 1980s and we got 4 inches one January, and feeling depressed because San Antonio hit the jackpot with 16 inches. I moved to Chattanooga as an adult and was lucky to be in/endure 2 ft of blizzard for March '93. That's the storm of my lifetime I guess. Watching my dog disappear while jumping into 6 ft drifts. Blizzard conditions with temps in the teens, nothing like it.
 
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