accu35
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I can see gfs trending east in time .
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
- Thread starter GaWx
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- inspired by mack
tennessee storm
Member
dont forget about your friend.... the SER.....
It's better than 12Z as far as the SER goes, but still not enough.
As long as you have a deep trough drop in the west, you will see a strong SE ridge pumped ahead of it. For instance the trough on the 18z is weaker and thus the SE Ridge is weaker.
I’m okay with the what the models are forecasting. Almost all Alabama snows come in January or February. This winter has already exceeded my expectations and the whole winter can’t stay below normal. The pendeulum will likely swing back in our favor sometime in January and many of us will be happy.
It's a frigid 18 degrees right now. May not get above freezing until Saturday !
I think things would favor the upper South and those to the West from us currently before the New Year. We've got 12 days or so, to figure it out.
pcbjr
Member
Totally FWIW (but superficially makes sense, unfortunately) ...
NoSnowATL
Member
Andrew Berrington disagrees with this map, he is a good follow. ( most of the time I have no idea what he is saying but I act like I do)Totally FWIW (but superficially makes sense, unfortunately) ...
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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How about 8 days before Christmas too!?Totally FWIW (but superficially makes sense, unfortunately) ...
This winter has not been very ninaish so far, so someone just saying it's looking Nina like after Christmas, is not a bold statement, and will likely be wrong. IMO
pcbjr
Member
How about 8 days before Christmas too!?
This winter has not been very ninaish so far, so someone just saying it's looking Nina like after Christmas, is not a bold statement, and will likely be wrong. IMO
I said "FWIW" - was not saying more.
Goodnight ...
GEFS mean snow depth looking good from Dallas to Lexington and points north for late December.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It'd be some kind of bull if the GFS picking up on the SE ridge's return early on in the game before Christmas actually turns out correct. Outside of a couple runs, it's been steady on Christmas being well above for at least the 4th straight winter.
However I wouldn't care if this pattern was able to reload later. I don't expect to see a February, but maybe we see another shot in January.
However I wouldn't care if this pattern was able to reload later. I don't expect to see a February, but maybe we see another shot in January.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Just started
tennessee storm
Member
Running now..
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looking better so far at 186. SER is getting beat down
CentralGAColdFront
Member
You clearly aren't in Carrollton tonight because they are only reporting 37 at the current moment.
Storm5
Member
Hahah huge changes on the 00z gfs
I'm in Eastern Indiana visiting mom. It's 16 here right now.
WeatherWatch
Member
0z GFS is looking way better towards Christmas.
Storm5
Member
In the morning JB will say " see I told you " after this run . The bathtub is sloshing tonight!!!!
WeatherWatch
Member
Uhhh Ohhh...0z GFS, we are in the frozen zone, ZR/IP.
I'll pass.
Nasty ice storm look!!
Storm5
Member
Maybe jb ends up being right with the mjo and epo saying guidance should correct
JLL1973
Member
Well this just got interesting
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I guess with a northwest trend this thing may end up an Ohio Valley special ?
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Brent
Member
what an ice storm on Christmas wow
We may not see 30 here for days Christmas week lol
even Houston stays below freezing for days!
We may not see 30 here for days Christmas week lol
even Houston stays below freezing for days!
Stormlover
Member
Very interesting.....
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
I️ hate the southeast ridge but when you have 1050 arctic highs coming out of Canada, it creates one hell of a “battle zone” fun as hell to watch..
Storm5
Member
00z CMC with a massive change as well towards next weekend . Blasts the front through . 2/2 so far
Storm5
Member
Yeah the 00z cmc blasts the front and there is no SE ridge to speak of. Those wanting ice need a little se ridge like the gfs has . If the CMC verified it would be cold and dry
Cary_Snow95
Member
Ensembles will be interesting to say the least.
As I was thinking earlier, the modeling is going to be throwing out some crazy ideas when it comes to systems. Mostly the ice/mix variety for our areas in the SE until we can get a lock down on the true pattern/strength of the high pressures.
I expect these runs to go back and forth, and still feel comfortable with the idea of what the GFS showed. Not quite sure about the Gulf coast, but you never know without the details of the high pressure in place.
I expect these runs to go back and forth, and still feel comfortable with the idea of what the GFS showed. Not quite sure about the Gulf coast, but you never know without the details of the high pressure in place.
Also, I would like to add, that Verbatim (this is pointless this far out), the GFS would switch parts of NC over to a major ice storm if it wasn't for it's loss of resolution. The high pressure basically disappears. 1034, rolling across. Even into Northern SC.
Previous experience shows that high pressure and CAD is always underdone and that NC would be staring a very scary monster of a ZR event in the face. Maybe they'd luck out and get sleet, but I wouldn't hope on it.
Previous experience shows that high pressure and CAD is always underdone and that NC would be staring a very scary monster of a ZR event in the face. Maybe they'd luck out and get sleet, but I wouldn't hope on it.
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OK folks, not only is the 0Z GFS better. So is the 0Z GEFS, especially in the 11-15. Perhaps we reached bottom on the Tuesday's runs and the new trend will be a good one on Wed. This -QBO/MJO/-EPO not to be denied glory? I still intend to do my extreme -EPO research.