• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaWx said:
The 0Z/12Z GEFS means are predicting ~-400 EPO peak centered near 12/24. Just how rare are days with a sub -400 EPO? During DJF, there have been only 9 strongly -EPO periods that included at least one day of sub -400 since 1948, or only one period every 8 winters on average. So, this is a pretty special event being forecasted. The last one was in Dec of 2009. One has to go all the way back to Feb of 1993 for the last one prior to 2009! The only time it happened in late Dec, was in 1983, when it plunged to a record 0 at KATL on 12/25, just one day after a record negative EPO of -504! On 12/24/1983, KATL also was very cold.
Click to expand...

I remember Christmas 1983 well...even though I was 11. Absolutely bitterly and brutally cold. KCHS dropped to 11° and that was not radiational cooling enhanced. Winds chills (old scale) were in the -20° range. Coldest Christmas in Charleston modern history.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z/12Z GEFS means are predicting ~-400 EPO peak centered near 12/24. Just how rare are days with a sub -400 EPO? During DJF, there have been only 9 strongly -EPO periods that included at least one day of sub -400 since 1948, or only one period every 8 winters on average. So, this is a pretty special event being forecasted. The last one was in Dec of 2009. One has to go all the way back to Feb of 1993 for the last one prior to 2009! The only time it happened in late Dec, was in 1983, when it plunged to a record 0 at KATL on 12/25, just one day after a record negative EPO of -504! On 12/24/1983, KATL also was very cold.
Click to expand...

that's insane.... 1983 is when Dallas had its record 11 days below freezing and snow stayed on the ground for weeks... several days with HIGHS in the teens. The winter of 15-16 we didn't even have a LOW in the teens lol
I've wanted to repeat it ever since I moved here :weenie:
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
If only that were 24 hours out instead of 300.... Guaranteed that will have a different look in a little while when the 0z run comes out. However, I did save that total snowfall image for good measure. Let's just see how the cold progresses first. Looks like there's going to be a lot of sleepy posters next week if the models keep spitting out runs like that.
Click to expand...
Realistically it's organizing at day 10-11 impacts in on your area might be around hour 300 but the system as a whole is getting organized long before that. Of course it's still post day ten and one OP run.

The best trend over the last 24 hours is away from the strong SE ridge
 
Heads up metwannabe, this band of precipitation has had a few mping reports of snow with it... As long as it doesn't fall apart completely you might get a token flake or two. I guess our clipper for the 13th-14th wasn't a complete bust
Screen Shot 2017-12-13 at 9.30.44 PM.png
 
I will say this, the GFS, just like Friday’s system in the SE, sniffed it out well before any other model. While the track and totals were off, more than models suggested, it was the first to sniff it out. This pattern we’re currently in favors many winter Wx chances in the SE, and once again, the GFS has been showing a “possible” winter event around the Christmas time frame for a few runs the last few days, so it’s something to take with a grain of sand, but know it’s a “slight” possible solution. One of many! But the GFS was spot on last time showing the system over a week in advance
 
Aleksey Sceviour said:
I will say this, the GFS, just like Friday’s system in the SE, sniffed it out well before any other model. While the track and totals were off, more than models suggested, it was the first to sniff it out. This pattern we’re currently in favors many winter Wx chances in the SE, and once again, the GFS has been showing a “possible” winter event around the Christmas time frame for a few runs the last few days, so it’s something to take with a grain of sand, but know it’s a “slight” possible solution. One of many! But the GFS was spot on last time showing the system over a week in advance
Click to expand...
The GFS may be extreme but like you said it picked up the last storm in the long range while the Euro played catch up. Maybe the GFS handles the cold better in a colder pattern while the Euro does in a warm pattern. Whatever the case I wouldn't bet against the cold solution since there is nothing backing up the torch fest the Euro showed.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
If only that were 24 hours out instead of 300.... Guaranteed that will have a different look in a little while when the 0z run comes out. However, I did save that total snowfall image for good

measure. Let's just see how the cold progresses first. Looks like there's going to be a lot of sleepy posters next week if the models keep spitting out runs like that.
Click to expand...
Alot of that would be sleet around my neck of the woods. Would have loved to see a sounding and know for sure just for kicks. Gurantee someone had to have had 9 to 12 inches of sleet off that run. Want ever see that again, let alone 30+ inches of snow. Even though it's fantasy clown map, that's probably the biggest computer snow I've ever received.
 
00z gfs
18z gfs

This run is most likely headed for a SE ridge
7c88c15a1047eb895149997a88dd8406.jpg
dd670f8af5221dbc10efe341799d8862.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Outside a few stronger members for the 18z GEFS, the huge ice storm/snow/whatever wasn't really a thing for the deeper south. GEFS mean was skewed.
 
Shawn said:
Outside a few stronger members for the 18z GEFS, the huge ice storm/snow/whatever wasn't really a thing for the deeper south. GEFS mean was skewed.
Click to expand...
There were plenty of GEFS members that bring wintry precip to the south.. obviously the two big ones skewed the mean but they were not the only two members bringing wintry precip
 
Seems like the energy with the first storm before whatever happens Christmas is there but it kicks late.

Edit: actually seems as if the GFS wants it to make one storm, which is waaaaayyyyy different from 18z. Honestly, I'm fine with it.
 
Think this one may go GLC, which doesn't really make me mad because if it were overrunning it'd be some kind of an ice storm.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top