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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

This may have been mentioned today, if it was, I missed it. On the 12z Euro, a low pressure system comes up along the south along the frontal boundary from the cutter system at the end of the run as the deeper cold air is progressing south and east.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, that storm showing up on the Euro was a bonus. The main thing is the stage is being set for some possible fun in December and things still look good.
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This exactly. I’m not worried right now about weather or not a snow storm shows up From run to run. Right now I’m just happy to see cold showing up in December for a change. To me any snow before January is a bonus! Unless you live somewhere around Indianapolis and points north of that December snow is usually a rarity.
 
pcbjr said:
Rooting for y'all ... don't wanna have to join you in a Gainesville cliff dive ... LOL ... ;)
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This pattern definitely has that mid 1990s, 2013/14-2014-15 vibe to it. I think if we get a winter storm it'll probably be a CAD/Miller B event in the Carolinas w/ this classic precursor pattern featuring Pacific split flow & a deep SE Canada vortex. It's a signature pattern I've hammered over & over again on this forum that's immediately preceded most of the modern CAD/Miller B (ice) events here...
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Virtually all of the winter storms in 1993-94, 2013-14, & 2014-15 were CAD or Miller B dominant here in the Carolinas and this pattern looks all too familiar...
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Frontal boundary hanging through the GOM at hr. 192. We'll see what happens rather or not a low will come up along the frontal boundary.
 
I'll take suppression at any point, rather than hoping for the elusive SE trend!! Give me cold air and a warm gulf, and old front stalled, pants off
 
Siberian express will be operating at full capacity after next week as this monster and all too familiar North Pacific ridge begins to dominate the global pattern... If the SE Canada vortex is seeded with w/ Siberian air, next week's cold shots will be an appetizer of what's to come.
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Next Saturday is so cold on the 18z, highs are in the upper 30s/low 40s imby
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What I want to see, is a system come along the frontal boundary from the cutter system that tracks just below the strong northern stream (like what the 12z Euro from today is suggesting. The levels will have deeper air in place, and the surface temperatures will be colder. Thus, the snow ratios will be higher. If that occurs, the precipitation will probably start off as virga, but that will make the temps. fall even further, which would be good for the higher snowfall ratios. On the 18z GFS at hr. 168, you can see moisture spreading eastward from NM. That moisture is from the frontal boundary from the cutter. I think a whole new system will develop at the tail end of the boundary, and hopefully track right below the northern stream.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Siberian express will be operating at full capacity after next week as this monster and all too familiar North Pacific ridge begins to dominate the global pattern... If the SE Canada vortex is seeded with w/ Siberian air, next week's cold shots will be an appetizer of what's to come.
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you can see end of run trying to hammerer down on us with the much colder air.
 
If that run is actually truthful, we're going to need coats when we head for LaFayette. Maybe a little luck and the energy holds back and we get snow? Haha doubtful.
 
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Even tho the run was cold, this maybe what Webb was talking about with colder down the road. Below zero in places north of us, prob due to the fact of snow cover to but very cold. As others say, mid December looks POTENTIAL!!
 
I️ just wanted to pop in and say I️ love reading this stuff. Btw, here’s a legend: I️ = eye. Gotta update software. Thanks for everyone who posts. I’ll try to contribute more soon.
 
Eric Webber, you just sorta saved my butt on wxchallenge with that tweet. Can’t believe I️ even got in the forecast at 7:00:12 just 3 seconds before it closed. However, I️. Totally put in a bad high of 45 because I️ couldn’t remember what USL said lol. Still will probably get enough error points closely to if I️ just “Guidance” penality. This is ok though because I️ can’t miss a forecast or it screws up my grade lol.
 
JHS said:
This looks a LOT like December 1989 to me. IF these maps verify.
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That run looks like Dookies to me! Nice SE ridge! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
That run looks like Dookies to me! Nice SE ridge! :(
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Meh that monster vortex to its north would really mute a significant SE ridge. Thinking back to the winter's this decade that featured a similar look the models often tried to pump a SE ridge before trending SE and cooler in time. Maybe it won't work out that way but I'm not getting upset about a transient ridge at hour 312 on the 18z gfs when the hemispheric look says no. Even if you got a SE ridge response from a SW digging shortwave the wave would get sheared and as webb has said you get a Miller b look with wedging at the surface or an initial snow/mix to rain scenario

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18z GEFS keeps the western ridge just off the west coast late in the run . Let's hope that's not a trend....
 
Don’t like seeing the ridging over Greenland slowly fading away as we get closer to verification. At least that’s what I️ saw on the gfs past few runs....
 
Storm5 said:
18z GEFS keeps the western ridge just off the west coast late in the run . Let's hope that's not a trend....
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EastAtlwx said:
Don’t like seeing the ridging over Greenland slowly fading away as we get closer to verification. At least that’s what I️ saw on the gfs past few runs....
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Folks,
There's been a whole lot of hype based on models lately; now maybe things are swinging back in another direction, trying to find a medium; or maybe the last run or few was/were simply an anomaly and we'll see 10 more cold runs in a row.
Bottom line IMHO is keep a positive outlook but don't hang your heart on a few model runs, either way.
Good night ... o_O
Phil
 
EastAtlwx said:
Don’t like seeing the ridging over Greenland slowly fading away as we get closer to verification. At least that’s what I️ saw on the gfs past few runs....
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I'll take a true western ridge over the nao all day everyday. I honestly wouldn't care if the NAO goes positive . If we get a sustained -epo I'm good
 
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