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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Tarheel1 said:
Guess I was just looking at temps. They were hardly ever below normal the entire run. Don't want another " block of the century" like we just had and temps not respond accordingly.
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Your new Avatar is so fitting. LMBO!


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Jon said:
EPS and GEFS in amazing agreement for Day 10. Trough could correct east instead of undercutting the ridge out west, would mean colder for SE.

I see this pattern as about a week long event but if can definitely last longer. This doesn’t really scream wintry action for the SE outside of the mountains but it will be a very noticeable change from the first week of December. It’s great to see patterns like these showing up early.

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Personally I like this look much more than a full scale trough in the east. That would atleast give time for a s/w to round the base vs a probable late bloomer. Another thing I like is that important benchmark 558dm line is sitting across the SE.

That said I agree with Webb about snow pack. Don't be surprised to waste a few storms before we get a good shot.

I'd still much rather see this pattern in Jan or Feb though, but can't be picky if we can score a pattern like that.
 
While the overall pattern looks fantastic in NWP atm, can't help but notice the high latitude blocking over Greenland took a hit in the most recent suites... Regardless, even if this blocking trends weaker as we near verification, the huge ridge over the Canadian rockies and Alaska would at least provide a 2013-14/2014-15 esque pattern in the longer term w/ a deep vortex over southeastern Canada accompanied by cross polar flow that seeds North America w/ Siberian air and opens the door for Miller B/CAD events... Of course, as ARCC mentioned, the dismal snowpack over the contiguous US at the front end of this pattern change will probably help modify these air masses more so than usual until we have a few-several storms under our belt to replenish and lay down a deep, extensive, fresh snow cover over the northern tier. Once this occurs, then I think we'll be in business but it won't be until after mid month in all likelihood...
 
Usually, preceding a classic southern slider, you want to see the snow cover extent in the US at least get down to about the I-70 corridor or along a line from about Pittsburgh to Columbus, Indianapolis, St. Louis, & Kansas City. This snow cover depth & extent depicted on the GFS is nowhere close to getting the job done.

GFS_3_2017112806_F240_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png


The snow cover extent on the Euro however is really good, but the depth is nothing to write home about, thus a lot of this could melt quickly before the next reinforcing arctic air mass plunges into the US...
ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Usually, preceding a classic southern slider, you want to see the snow cover extent in the US at least get down to about the I-70 corridor or along a line from about Pittsburgh to Columbus, Indianapolis, St. Louis, & Kansas City. This snow cover depth & extent depicted on the GFS is nowhere close to getting the job done.

View attachment 1625


The snow cover extent on the Euro however is really good, but the depth is nothing to write home about, thus a lot of this could melt quickly before the next reinforcing arctic air mass plunges into the US...
View attachment 1626
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Take home message: Yes while the pattern looks great in the long range, don't become impatient and/or too excited, we're likely not going to score a big storm right away
 
Webberweather53 said:
While the overall pattern looks fantastic in NWP atm, can't help but notice the high latitude blocking over Greenland took a hit in the most recent suites... Regardless, even if this blocking trends weaker as we near verification, the huge ridge over the Canadian rockies and Alaska would at least provide a 2013-14/2014-15 esque pattern in the longer term w/ a deep vortex over southeastern Canada accompanied by cross polar flow that seeds North America w/ Siberian air and opens the door for Miller B/CAD events... Of course, as ARCC mentioned, the dismal snowpack over the contiguous US at the front end of this pattern change will probably help modify these air masses more so than usual until we have a few-several storms under our belt to replenish and lay down a deep, extensive, fresh snow cover over the northern tier. Once this occurs, then I think we'll be in business but it won't be until after mid month in all likelihood...
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Agree. If anyone gets any “S” it will be to the NE or NW. lol


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Webberweather53 said:
Take home message: Yes while the pattern looks great in the long range, don't become impatient and/or too excited, we're likely not going to score a big storm right away
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i mean, its possible to get something in December right? Few years ago, i remember a December where a winterstorm struck the southeast but it was little before Christmas. So im guessing chances increases by mid to end of month? Honestly, anything we get in December is a bonus right?
 
WeatherWatch said:
I understand of where you guys are coming from about not having any snowpack to the north and west. However, the SE US can still get wintry weather w/o the snowpack. Let's go back to Feb. 26th, 2015. Remember? As you can see, there was very little snow to the west and NW of the SE US. There was some snow to the north. No argument, just pointing out that you can still get wintry weather w/o snowpack.
c09db7b946dfe0af907a469842db75a9.jpg


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I'm sure you can't find too many examples of any significant storm without some decent snow cover to the north since it requires the air to be very chilly and then get modified by the time it gets here. Shouldn't take much time if the pattern holds up to keep building the snow pack though.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Take home message: Yes while the pattern looks great in the long range, don't become impatient and/or too excited, we're likely not going to score a big storm this winter
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FYP! My thoughts exactly! :)
 
I think DT stole one of Bricks gifs on his FB post! LMFAO!
 
GaStorm said:
I'm sure you can't find too many examples of any significant storm without some decent snow cover to the north since it requires the air to be very chilly and then get modified by the time it gets here. Shouldn't take much time if the pattern holds up to keep building the snow pack though.
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Actually, my fault, that map was the observed snowfall on that day. There was a snowpack off the north and west ( except for parts of the Plains) and to the north prior to that event. Snowpack is good to have as well in the NE US.

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GaStorm said:
I'm sure you can't find too many examples of any significant storm without some decent snow cover to the north since it requires the air to be very chilly and then get modified by the time it gets here. Shouldn't take much time if the pattern holds up to keep building the snow pack though.
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This was the snow cover extent immediately preceding the February 2015 event which only furthers my earlier point, notice it actually extends all the way down the I-40 corridor...
nsm_depth_2015022305_National.jpg
 
Northern and Northeastern snowpack, is also extremely crucial in most CAD events!
 
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