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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
Can’t really get a bigger signal for the New Years storm . Gefs is honking , eps is starting to like it as well


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Sucks they are at days 6 and 9. 1 and 4 would be much better

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Storm5 said:
Can’t really get a bigger signal for the New Years storm . Gefs is honking , eps is starting to like it as well


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There's really not much of a signal there on the EPS, it's actually picking up on another threat sometime around January 2-6.
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Webberweather53 said:
There's really not much of a signal there on the EPS in the deep south outside of the Carolinas, it's actually picking up on another threat sometime around January 2-6.
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That was my point I wasnt talking about New Year’s Day alone my bad . The general timeframe around New Years . Can’t get a bigger signal in the 1st -4th on the gefs
 
Ok, so I’m a little confused after catching up on the past few pages. Are we talking about 3 possible threats over next 10 days? CAD event late next week and then 2 possible events around and after New Years?
 
The maps posted in the past two pages are pretty much TN/NC/SC/VA only and not really board wide. Great for folks up there. We were on the edge of rain/SN line last storm and most of it fell as rain.
 
06z gefs 1st through the 4th
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Storm5 said:
That was my point I wasnt talking about New Year’s Day alone my bad . The general timeframe around New Years . Can’t get a bigger signal in the 1st -4th on the gefs
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The Euro op and a couple EPS members show something but there's very little support, I mean I will certainly take it, even if it goes to our north as the pattern still looks good into early January, the deeper and more extensive the snow cover gets to our north, the better. The early January threat could be the bigger deal for nearly everyone on the board if we play our hand right w/ these other storms...
 
Catfish said:
Ok, so I’m a little confused after catching up on the past few pages. Are we talking about 3 possible threats over next 10 days? CAD event late next week and then 2 possible events around and after New Years?
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It’s more like two , the gefs is fast vs eps with the system New Years week . The point is there could be multiple systems.
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro op and a couple EPS members show something but there's very little support, I mean I will certainly take it, even if it goes to our north as the pattern still looks good into early January, the deeper and more extensive the snow cover gets to our north, the better. The early January threat could be the bigger deal for nearly everyone on the board if we play our hand right w/ these other storms...
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No doubt for areas outside the Carolinas the bigger threat would be New Years week and not next week , I agree with you there
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's really not much of a signal there on the EPS, it's actually picking up on another threat sometime around January 2-6.
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It still seems the better chance is in your neck of the woods for now. But it's still too early to put too much stock yet. Like @deltadog03 said, all biases aside, the Euro and EPS have been kinda all over the place too. Would definitely like to see those members increase for the ATL , Birmingham, and Columbia as we get closer in time.
 
Catfish said:
Ok, so I’m a little confused after catching up on the past few pages. Are we talking about 3 possible threats over next 10 days? CAD event late next week and then 2 possible events around and after New Years?
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Generally speaking IMO yes. "Borderline ZR" for us next week, then "Impact" driven due to frozen ground (3rd) then the larger snow event..
 
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