I would also like to note that the euro isn't wet enough either. :| ugh; I was afraid of this. this is a situation where I am hoping for a change, but the GEFS members, Euro, and now the Canadian, within day 6 & 7.
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
- Thread starter GaWx
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- inspired by mack
Not even if the wedge it's stronger.
Eh +1 - +4 c or so for the event. (for us)
I was just thinking this same thing. Most of time these op runs under estimate qpf this far out. Normally I'm okay with that in regards to tracking SN, but since this looks to be mainly ZR in my area it's concerning..
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LovingGulfLows
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I'd imagine the high pressure would have to be much much more powerful to bring enough cold air to the 850mb levels to get it below freezing. It's just unlikely....my only hope is that maybe perhaps the 850s crash on the backside and get some token flakes after the powers out, but with another system right on the heels of this one, that doesn't look like it wants to happen.
JtSmarts
Member
I remember being on Shawn's SC weather forum during the 2014 storm and the continuous model runs showing icemageddon for us. Hopefully if this is going to come, things can trend better for us where we end up more sleet than freezing rain.
It looks like the circulation (of what's forming) is too far North based on 850 maps for most outside far Northern GA, Upstate SC, Far Northern Midlands, and NC. If some areas are lucky, you'd see the system further South, but then of course, it puts areas like Macon, Inner-Coastal areas of SC, maybe even Savannah in a trouble zone with much higher precip totals.
Wow. Have some td maps?
DLI4SCwx
Member
Thanks for the info. What can help us with the mid levels more? Stronger HP obviously. We need those numbers to go negative.
DLI4SCwx
Member
I was on there too. I recall all of that as well as you. I'm hoping as you do, we can get more sleet. This is really making me feel uneasy with more than one model honking now, within 7 days.
The Jan 1-2 storm is further North than GFS but good hit for N NC into Mid Atlantic. It's still 9-10 days out so sure it'll change, but general idea of tracking possible 2 threats at least over next week and half is there.
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Sure, here are some maps for the duration:
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olhausen
Member
Don’t forget us Tennessee folks. That run gives me hours and hours of ice followed by a number of hours of snow.
The Jan 1-2 storm is further North than GFS but good hit for N NC into Mid Atlantic. It's still 9-10 days out so sure it'll change, but general idea of tracking possible 2 threats at least over next week and half is there.
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Not happy with this stormThe Jan 1-2 storm is further North than GFS but good hit for N NC into Mid Atlantic. It's still 9-10 days out so sure it'll change, but general idea of tracking possible 2 threats at least over next week and half is there.
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Dang. That's really close here
NWMSGuy
Member
Man we’ve had a ton of Rain over here around Memphis. Still going at this hour.
Trust me, this is bold for MRX:
"Chances for precip for Wednesday and Wednesday night look
to be mainly across our southern counties, but for Thursday and
Friday better chances of precip spread across the area. There
should be some chances of wintry precip during this time, but it`s
low confidence on how significant this weather system will be in
the latter part of the week."
"Chances for precip for Wednesday and Wednesday night look
to be mainly across our southern counties, but for Thursday and
Friday better chances of precip spread across the area. There
should be some chances of wintry precip during this time, but it`s
low confidence on how significant this weather system will be in
the latter part of the week."
DT up late, putting out free stuff... he teaches us to count in the first part, lol:
Uncle Nasty
Member
We are supposed to be leaving next Friday to go to the beach, mainly for golf and looking at a condo to possibly purchase. I would really really REALLY be pissed off if I missed a good winter storm at home. If it looks like it could be a good pending storm I might just have a sit down with my wife and explain why we need to postpone.
6z Goof is further south with the 29th-30th storm.. robs southern New England and Mid Atlantic. heh... good for most of Tn and North Carolina.