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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
Can’t really get a bigger signal for the New Years storm . Gefs is honking , eps is starting to like it as well


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Sucks they are at days 6 and 9. 1 and 4 would be much better

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Storm5 said:
Can’t really get a bigger signal for the New Years storm . Gefs is honking , eps is starting to like it as well


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There's really not much of a signal there on the EPS, it's actually picking up on another threat sometime around January 2-6.
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Webberweather53 said:
There's really not much of a signal there on the EPS in the deep south outside of the Carolinas, it's actually picking up on another threat sometime around January 2-6.
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That was my point I wasnt talking about New Year’s Day alone my bad . The general timeframe around New Years . Can’t get a bigger signal in the 1st -4th on the gefs
 
Ok, so I’m a little confused after catching up on the past few pages. Are we talking about 3 possible threats over next 10 days? CAD event late next week and then 2 possible events around and after New Years?
 
The maps posted in the past two pages are pretty much TN/NC/SC/VA only and not really board wide. Great for folks up there. We were on the edge of rain/SN line last storm and most of it fell as rain.
 
06z gefs 1st through the 4th
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Storm5 said:
That was my point I wasnt talking about New Year’s Day alone my bad . The general timeframe around New Years . Can’t get a bigger signal in the 1st -4th on the gefs
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The Euro op and a couple EPS members show something but there's very little support, I mean I will certainly take it, even if it goes to our north as the pattern still looks good into early January, the deeper and more extensive the snow cover gets to our north, the better. The early January threat could be the bigger deal for nearly everyone on the board if we play our hand right w/ these other storms...
 
Catfish said:
Ok, so I’m a little confused after catching up on the past few pages. Are we talking about 3 possible threats over next 10 days? CAD event late next week and then 2 possible events around and after New Years?
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It’s more like two , the gefs is fast vs eps with the system New Years week . The point is there could be multiple systems.
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro op and a couple EPS members show something but there's very little support, I mean I will certainly take it, even if it goes to our north as the pattern still looks good into early January, the deeper and more extensive the snow cover gets to our north, the better. The early January threat could be the bigger deal for nearly everyone on the board if we play our hand right w/ these other storms...
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No doubt for areas outside the Carolinas the bigger threat would be New Years week and not next week , I agree with you there
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's really not much of a signal there on the EPS, it's actually picking up on another threat sometime around January 2-6.
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It still seems the better chance is in your neck of the woods for now. But it's still too early to put too much stock yet. Like @deltadog03 said, all biases aside, the Euro and EPS have been kinda all over the place too. Would definitely like to see those members increase for the ATL , Birmingham, and Columbia as we get closer in time.
 
Catfish said:
Ok, so I’m a little confused after catching up on the past few pages. Are we talking about 3 possible threats over next 10 days? CAD event late next week and then 2 possible events around and after New Years?
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Generally speaking IMO yes. "Borderline ZR" for us next week, then "Impact" driven due to frozen ground (3rd) then the larger snow event..
 
Torchtember said:
We have a wide open forum and admins want to keep everything jumbled up in one spot. I don't even know what we're talking about anymore.
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How is it jumbled up ? We are talking in general about the rest of December . There could be multiple opportunities for winter weather. It’s really not that hard to follow
 
Torchtember said:
We have a wide open forum and admins want to keep everything jumbled up in one spot. I don't even know what we're talking about anymore.
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If we didn’t keep the discussion here we would have at least three different storm threads going at one time. That would be more chaotic then having it in one general thread until we get closer to each of these events happening. Chances are by tomorrow or Monday we will have a storm thread for the 28th-29th storm.


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It would probably make the most sense to start a January thread given the 2nd threat is in January

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The dew point maps for KINT/KGSO are sick. During the storm the dew point goes no higher than 17 and starts as low as 3, ouch!
 
Weatherlover92 said:
It really depends on the strength of the CAD. I brought up about January 2005 last night. We started off in the mid 30s with sleet and spent most of that event in the mid to upper 20s. However, even a weak CAD definitely affects the immediate Atlanta metro area. It doesn't always guarantee wintry precipitation here, but the likelihood is very high. It doesn't even have to be the Winter season, I can't count the number of times CAD has saved Atlanta's butt a lot in severe weather outbreaks also.

EDIT: I think the HP in the January 2005 ice storm was only in the 1020s or 1030. If we have a 1030 or higher HP anchored to our NE, it'll most likely get the job done down here. Anyone know a good website to find archived surface analysis maps from that month/year. It was an end of the month storm, I think around 28th-29th. I know it started on a Friday afternoon and went through all of Saturday.
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You are correct bc I went to work that Sunday and ice was every where.
 
Starting to see a trend in models that might give me a dusting for Christmas. That would be a good way to get things started.
 
I was a junior in high school during the 2005 ice storm and vividly remember it being extremely cloudy with temps in the upper 30's most of the day preceding the event before the main precipitation moved through during the night.
 
As long as the hp is 1030+ the cad regions will do well and most models are pushing a 1040ish. With dew points forecast in the teens for most there will be places where sleet and snow will pile up. Then farther south down the cad regions freezing rain and sleet will be treacherous. As long as the wave doesnt come in too strong with a ton of warm air we will be good.
 
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