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Pattern December Dud 👀

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
this is bringing back some old memories. It’s way too soon to know what the pattern will be at new years but I think it’s what we’re all keeping an eye on. I like to see either the EPO or AO go negative around January 1. Preferably both. Give me my cold first then we can worry about the snow around the second week of January.
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Yeah, agree. I'm not trying to be negative. I'm just tired of seeing the same thing every year. And as we get closer in, starting to see depictions of the MJO hitting the wall...again...is frustrating.

I know it's not the be all end all, but the pattern starting to show up in the long range (which I know it's a low skill time frame in terms of predictability), correlates with P6 climatology. It's just frustrating that this seems to happen every year no matter what ENSO state or other background state we're in. It's the same result in the east and southeast.
 
Rain Cold said:
Better score while we can. Euro AI moving toward an ugly pattern out in time. Fits the MJO progression of stalling out in unfavorable phases, as usual in winter. CFS moving steadily in a less favorable direction also for January. At this rate, we're going down the same path as every other winter in the last few years: A few cold shots, followed by crap for days/weeks.

Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.

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After this blockbuster cold pattern yall have just had, the cold has to re load! Patience
 
Posting this here, because ice storms are fairly rare here. This is a wedge style Southern ice storm look/accums! Temp is currently 8 degrees and the precip is supposed to start between midnight and 6am. High today of 21IMG_8273.jpegIMG_8274.jpeg
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, agree. I'm not trying to be negative. I'm just tired of seeing the same thing every year. And as we get closer in, starting to see depictions of the MJO hitting the wall...again...is frustrating.

I know it's not the be all end all, but the pattern starting to show up in the long range (which I know it's a low skill time frame in terms of predictability), correlates with P6 climatology. It's just frustrating that this seems to happen every year no matter what ENSO state or other background state we're in. It's the same result in the east and southeast.
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I’ve always said this, but @Rain Cold is just a better weather forum version of myself 😂. More diplomatic and well-versed yet still straight to the point. When a real threat exists, you’ll know it because this guy will be ringing the bell (and usually first). We so often share the same sentiment, and this post is exactly how I’m feeling also.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's how the ERA-5 Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) MJO Index (OMI) shakes out for NC winter storms since 1940. Looked at (& had to dig up) any winter storm that produced measurable snow east of the mountains or a glaze of ice.

First table here are the daily probabilities of a winter storm, sorted according to ENSO phase. It's actually crazy to see a 20% daily chance of a winter storm during cool neutral ENSO & phase 1 OMI (Western Hemisphere convection).

Phases 4-5-6 of the OMI MJO index tend to be unfavorable overall, while 8-1-2 are generally conducive for wintry weather.

There's also some ENSO sensitivity to these favorable OMI MJO phases. Phase 1 (western hemisphere convection) is better in cold ENSO (like this year), while Phase 2 (Indian Ocean convection) is more favorable in El Niño.

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This is what the differences look like compared to climatology.

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Here are the total day counts by ENSO phase:

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https://psl.noaa.gov/mjo/
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Comparing this to the traditional, more popular RMM index & doing something different than I did a few years ago in that I recovered more winter storm cases and looked at the 1 sigma level in the DJFM in RMM like I did w/ OMI (not the 1.0 value in the RMM index), it is pretty apparent that the filtered OMI MJO index is better at discriminating between good and bad patterns for winter storms in NC.

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1300m said:
Despite the low probability, with a western ridge that tall this is always a possibility, even if it’s still low at this range.
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i think it's low probability for us, but the gfs has been pretty insistent that an unorthodox meteorological event is going to happen and however that manifests is going to be high impact for soemone. could be us.
 
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