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Pattern December Dud đź‘€

It has been the early story of this December in that the ensembles generally have forecast above normal in the later part of their runs only to be humbled as time to verification shortens. For example, today's GEFS for the 22nd versus hour 384 from the sixth.
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And then there is the CFS weekly from12/3. Yeah, that's not happening.
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1300m said:
200 hour teases. We all knew this is what the next run would show.
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At least it did keep the general H5 look similar earlier in the run. At 180, the western ridge looks taller, so it's actually not that bad, I expected worse TBH.
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Euro AI had the general look as well....just not enough amplitude / dive with the ridge-trough. All we can say is that this is a pattern look that can work. It's possible and worth watching.

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griteater said:
Euro AI had the general look as well....just not enough amplitude / dive with the ridge-trough. All we can say is that this is a pattern look that can work. It's possible and worth watching.

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It very well could work, but IMO we’ve had better looks than this at this range that didn’t work out already this year (well at least they didn’t work for some/most including myself haha).
 
1300m said:
It very well could work, but IMO we’ve had better looks than this at this range that didn’t work out already this year (well at least they didn’t work for some/most including myself haha).
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Yeah, I'm not really sure where I am with all that. The prior look(s) did have the added benefit of the Greenland-esque / bootleg(?) -NAO and some split stream action at times, but there always seemed to be a good amount of question as to whether it was going to all come together. Same with this setup too - a lot has to hit right. Guess I just like the big amplification that has been shown at times on the runs. We have some analogs to this that have worked and been good storms - just not the classic gulf low with high to north deal of course. Low chance but worth watching - possible, not probable.
 
griteater said:
Yeah, I'm not really sure where I am with all that. The prior look(s) did have the added benefit of the Greenland-esque / bootleg(?) -NAO and some split stream action at times, but there always seemed to be a good amount of question as to whether it was going to all come together. Same with this setup too - a lot has to hit right. Guess I just like the big amplification that has been shown at times on the runs. We have some analogs to this that have worked and been good storms - just not the classic gulf low with high to north deal of course. Low chance but worth watching - possible, not probable.
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Looking at 204 hours out on the 18z GFS today vs. for the early December threat I'll concede it's about a wash. A little better western U.S. now, a little better Atlantic w/ a pseudo 50/50 low and transitory -NAO then. Just trying to caution folks not to get hyped at this range. It's a trough over the eastern U.S. in winter, of course we're going to watch it and eventually one of these will produce wintry precipitation for someone. I still think Mid-Atlantic and New England are favored in this regime, but it's going to be absolutely critical to keep the western ridge as strong and well-positioned as it is now for those further in the south to be in the game.
 
One of the few big storms I’ve analyzed that worked out in a pattern where a ridge was trying to nose up into Newfoundland was this one from December 1973.

Need the wavelengths to shorten more and for the trough base to dig down towards the Gulf Coast & hope the storm doesn’t cut up the apps (which it likes to do 95+ times out of 100 in this kind of pattern) in order to score.

Yeah it can technically work out great and we should watch it (because why not we are all weenies), but I don’t love the pattern for next weekend yet in all honesty, except in the foothills and mountains perhaps.

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Staring Episode 2 GIF by The Office

Trying to get a trough to dig that far south with the main TPV over Greenland is mission impossible. We either get more northern TPV injection (not withstanding some major reshuffling of players) or New England will be the only ones with a chance.
 
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