griteater
Member
It's a Manitoba Mauler pattern. It just is
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Broken024
Member
Absolute monster. Still snowing in East NC here.
been there consistently 36 hours-ish
My god it’s been so long since we even had a big dog on models.
I cannot unsee that GFS run. Unlikely to happen, but if you want a good snow in mid and eastern Carolinas that is a great way to do it. Manitoba mauler swoops south and then sparks cyclogenesis off the coast of South Carolina
Last edited:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
CMC goes for a cutoff but there's still something there
Brick Tamland
Member
SimeonNC
Member
How long exactly has the EC AIFS been honking the horn for the 20th-23rd? It feels like it's been highlighting that period for over a week.
Also can any archivists or anyone with a better memory than tell me when's the last time a model has been this adamant for a storm potential and what was the result?
Also can any archivists or anyone with a better memory than tell me when's the last time a model has been this adamant for a storm potential and what was the result?
I remember Christmas 2010 we had models showing potential pretty early. Was one of the most fun storms I have ever tracked because I believe we lost it a few days before then it came back.
GoDuke
Member
Yep
Temperatures during and after the storm are cold. Anyone in the Carolinas or even the rest of the SE wishing for a White Christmas, the 12Z GFS is the stuff of legend.
Brick Tamland
Member
204 12/21 00Z 36 22 328 3 0.00 0.00 533 553 -7.9 -21.8 1024.9 100 042SCT106 113BKN229 232OVC310 40 36 20.0
210 12/21 06Z 32 31 16 4 0.02 0.00 528 548 -8.4 -23.1 1025.3 100 -SN 006OVC110 110OVC224 241BKN295 37 31 0.0
216 12/21 12Z 30 28 44 6 0.06 0.00 525 545 -9.0 -26.3 1025.4 100 -SN 000OVC109 109OVC209 234SCT306 32 30 0.5
222 12/21 18Z 31 29 35 10 0.11 0.00 523 542 -9.2 -27.8 1024.3 100 -SN 000OVC109 109OVC179 CLR 31 29 1.6
228 12/22 00Z 26 23 20 12 0.14 0.01 522 543 -9.0 -28.8 1025.7 100 -SN 000OVC110 111OVC136 CLR 31 26 1.5
234 12/22 06Z 23 19 18 14 0.14 0.00 526 544 -9.4 -26.7 1023.3 100 -SN 000OVC108 136BKN172 231BKN287 26 23 5.3
240 12/22 12Z 21 16 9 15 0.15 0.00 527 544 -8.1 -25.3 1021.9 100 -SN 000OVC107 119BKN145 225SCT260 23 20 9.2
246 12/22 18Z 27 19 4 14 0.03 0.00 529 543 -5.7 -24.7 1018.8 98 -SN 000BKN103 119BKN140 CLR 27 21 20.0
252 12/23 00Z 29 19 359 12 0.10 0.00 530 544 -7.2 -25.3 1017.5 100 -SN 015OVC108 115OVC212 226BKN252 30 26 20.0
258 12/23 06Z 24 15 329 10 0.04 0.00 533 545 -5.9 -23.3 1016.1 100 -SN 023OVC102 113OVC209 234SCT252 29 23 20.0
264 12/23 12Z 23 15 311 9 0.01 0.00 533 547 -5.8 -21.6 1017.3 100 -SN 043BKN109 121OVC197 228BKN278 24 23 20.0
210 12/21 06Z 32 31 16 4 0.02 0.00 528 548 -8.4 -23.1 1025.3 100 -SN 006OVC110 110OVC224 241BKN295 37 31 0.0
216 12/21 12Z 30 28 44 6 0.06 0.00 525 545 -9.0 -26.3 1025.4 100 -SN 000OVC109 109OVC209 234SCT306 32 30 0.5
222 12/21 18Z 31 29 35 10 0.11 0.00 523 542 -9.2 -27.8 1024.3 100 -SN 000OVC109 109OVC179 CLR 31 29 1.6
228 12/22 00Z 26 23 20 12 0.14 0.01 522 543 -9.0 -28.8 1025.7 100 -SN 000OVC110 111OVC136 CLR 31 26 1.5
234 12/22 06Z 23 19 18 14 0.14 0.00 526 544 -9.4 -26.7 1023.3 100 -SN 000OVC108 136BKN172 231BKN287 26 23 5.3
240 12/22 12Z 21 16 9 15 0.15 0.00 527 544 -8.1 -25.3 1021.9 100 -SN 000OVC107 119BKN145 225SCT260 23 20 9.2
246 12/22 18Z 27 19 4 14 0.03 0.00 529 543 -5.7 -24.7 1018.8 98 -SN 000BKN103 119BKN140 CLR 27 21 20.0
252 12/23 00Z 29 19 359 12 0.10 0.00 530 544 -7.2 -25.3 1017.5 100 -SN 015OVC108 115OVC212 226BKN252 30 26 20.0
258 12/23 06Z 24 15 329 10 0.04 0.00 533 545 -5.9 -23.3 1016.1 100 -SN 023OVC102 113OVC209 234SCT252 29 23 20.0
264 12/23 12Z 23 15 311 9 0.01 0.00 533 547 -5.8 -21.6 1017.3 100 -SN 043BKN109 121OVC197 228BKN278 24 23 20.0
griteater
Member
Post it while you got 'em 
JHS
Member
This has bust written all over it. Both ways. This could go like Jan 2000 and 2003 or like Dec 2000. Right now, this looks a lot like Feb 1989, but will change of course.
NAM has a stout dry CAD this Sunday
pumping the brakes- this (wound up coastal bomb) is probably my least favorite genre of fantasy storm, i think too many things have to go right for it to happen. not a ton of support from other models for this. this isn't happening. cute board fodder though
what gives me optimism is that the models are showing a tendency for sharper, deeper (or cutoff) troughs during this period, the flow is slower and a little more amplified, the trough axis keeps on showing up in a nice area, this period is giving me a nice buzz. two miller lites. our problem has been trough tilt and fast flows the last few years
no need to reinvent the wheel here- i am paying attention to the euro ensembles. i think that a broad window exists that will obviously narrow once shortwave placement is pinned down
what gives me optimism is that the models are showing a tendency for sharper, deeper (or cutoff) troughs during this period, the flow is slower and a little more amplified, the trough axis keeps on showing up in a nice area, this period is giving me a nice buzz. two miller lites. our problem has been trough tilt and fast flows the last few years
no need to reinvent the wheel here- i am paying attention to the euro ensembles. i think that a broad window exists that will obviously narrow once shortwave placement is pinned down
Coastals always feel like the 80 yard bomb down the field when you can usually just throw the ten yard pass over and over with an overrunning. You know option #1 has the highest max yield possible but #2 is way way more consistent.