Pattern December Dud 👀

[Webberweather53]

So I know there's a lag time with response to things like the NAO turning negative, etc. I'm assuming there is a lag time for the MJO as well?

Yes there definitely is. This lag is dependent on a lot of things (like the current state of the circulation pattern, the speed and amplitude of the mjo, time of year, enso state, etc.,) but it’s usually in the ballpark of a week or two.

 

[Mitch West]

At least we aren't torching this Christmas. Most model guidance has trended towards a pretty aggressive shot of cold air just before Christmas.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

At least we aren't torching this Christmas. Most model guidance has trended towards a pretty aggressive shot of cold air just before Christmas.

If memory serves, verifying colder in the long term has been the norm for this December going back to mid-November.

 

[NCSNOW]

6Z Gefs has two NC whopper members for the Euro AI Storm

 

[Brick Tamland]

This pattern is so mid.

Yay for lots of cold rain in the 40s-50s

View attachment 155783

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 155807View attachment 155808
View attachment 155809

 

[Mitch West]

View attachment 155810

Man we gotta miss close before we hit big.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 155810

It’s the hotter version. It’s why we need that PV sagging into SE Canada. But it still gives be some December 8 2017 flashbacks

 

[JHS]

It’s the hotter version. It’s why we need that PV sagging into SE Canada. But it still gives be some December 8 2017 flashbacks

That was a miss here.

 

[ForsythSnow]

View attachment 155807View attachment 155808
View attachment 155809

I say bring it! That was a great storm for ATL if we can get that or even any good Miller A setup again. All we can do is hope the model trends line up to an actual storm vs shaft us again with too warm or dry.

 

[Mitch West]

The EC AI with another banger.

 

[JHS]

I say bring it! That was a great storm for ATL if we can get that or even any good Miller A setup again. All we can do is hope the model trends line up to an actual storm vs shaft us again with too warm or dry.

If it can only come 25 more miles southeast this time. 12-8-2017 was 100% rain here.

 

[Mitch West]

 

[griteater]

GFS says yes

 

[Broken024]

Hello there

 

[Mitch West]

GFS says yes

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Can some post the EURO AI model?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Hello there

View attachment 155814

There has been a signal for this time on the models for a while now.

 

[ILMRoss]

first window that has my full and undivided attention this season so far