Pattern December Dud 👀

[SD]

Nice way to do it for the central and eastern part of the carolinas. Temporary ridge flex up the rockies drives the shortwave well south, energy encroaching on the WC biases the pattern east so amplification is along or offshore vs inland. My concern is the ridge likely verifies flatter which pushes this all north/east or there's too much energy along the WC and it's a beaches storm at best

 

[NCSNOW]

NAM has a stout dry CAD this Sunday

1045-1050 HP parked over NY for a couple days coming up. And the light moisture takes forever to crawl in here, finally by Tues I beleive. Been noticing this big HP forecasted in prime spot for days, thinking what if.

 

[NCSNOW]

We had 2 hits off the 6z GEFS. Anyone get chance to post/count up the 12Z Gefs, Please share. Thanks

 

[SD]

Just some recent coastals with a similar flavor of how you have to set the pattern up for a big coastal. Gfs is probably most similar to Christmas 2010 with a jan 2000 flavor of the sfc low bombing and slowly inching away as the upper trough pinches off and the system occludes rapidly
Christmas 2010

Jan 2000


Jan 2009

 

[NCSNOW]

50+ in Philly/NJ LOL. Maybe the Drones up there flying around are laying the ground work.

 

[SimeonNC]

What does the GEFS look like? I know there's apparently no solutions that look like the OP but I'm curious to see if the 12z GEFS to similar to the 6z

 

[NCSNOW]

Has to still be a panel or two: I cant access. But heres 12z




compared to 6Z

 

[SnowNiner]

50+ in Philly/NJ LOL. Maybe the Drones up there flying around are laying the ground work.

View attachment 155828

Nice to have a clown map to talk about! No fan of late blooming coastals IMBY as they favor the eastern carolinas. It is interesting that the AI Euro and the GFS are honing in on a strong trough around the time frame. I'm I'm in the mid atlantic and NE I'd be feeling pretty good.

Perhaps this is the winter of crazy clippers.

 

[NCSNOW]

12Z regular/not AI Euro vort verse 12z GFS Op vort:








Heres latest 6z AI Euro as well

 

[BullCityWx]

Euro just wasnt as strong with the shortwave.

 

[ILMRoss]

Coastals always feel like the 80 yard bomb down the field when you can usually just throw the ten yard pass over and over with an overrunning. You know option #1 has the highest max yield possible but #2 is way way more consistent

basically how i see it

feel like we get one run a year with a stalled out 986 off hatteras at hour 220ish and then it vanishes

 

[Webberweather53]

A few GEFS members biting next weekend but more so in the mid Atlantic and Apps

 

[Webberweather53]

12z euro tried to pull off the gfs storm but like the GEFS, kept most of the snow into the mtns and mid Atlantic.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Let me know if y'all need to borrow this around Christmas:

 

[Webberweather53]

12z EPS.

 

[BullCityWx]

EPS might be slightly better than 0z.

 

[SD]

If someone set the O/U at 70.5 next Tuesday and Wednesday I'd be tempted to take the over on both. Classic SW flow bake sale both days

 

[1300m]

I am not the least bit excited about this. The amount of things that would have to go right are just too many and at this range, there's literally a half dozen things that can and probably will change, any one of them killing the chance. No blocking -NAO to slow things down, the southern stream upper low / shortwave has to get left by the initial trough, then picked up by the next trough while also hoping the trailing energy crashing onshore is delayed and doesn't kill the western ridge. Or, we hope the northern stream is strong enough and can dig far enough southwest. How many times have we tracked that into oblivion lately. Maybe this will be our time, but we won't know for another 5-7 days.

 

[BullCityWx]

36 for a D10 high on the EPS is pretty cold at a ten day lead.

 

[1300m]

To be completely fair, the consistency of the EC AI for the overall H5 look at D10+ is impressive (we'll see how this goes between now and 120 hours, when it has proven to be quite strong), I'll give it that. The GFS on the other hand, it's a dart without feathers.