Yep, 6z GFS day 10 Kuchera totals:
I'm not greedy, I would take my 2" of snow and salute all the folks on the coast.
I'm not greedy, I would take my 2" of snow and salute all the folks on the coast.
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I think everybody in North and South Carolina would be happy with that map. Nice little appetizer before Christmas then the real fun comes in about mid January. Probably not going to happen but fun to track.
This is what you would want to see from the 00z EPS, but it's going to need more and it's such a tight rope. Even with the improvement, EPS barely flinched in regards to snow down the road. Have to keep the western ridge axis far enough west to allow the trough to dig and amplify, but not so much that it turns into an inland runner ala the 00z operational Euro. Less than 5% probability this works out as of now IMO.
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Brick Tamland
Member
Looks like it backed off that run from yesterday a little bit.
Good thing is the storm is still there.
Well the odds are stacked against us for a storm for sure. Just very brief window where we drop a trough but looks too far east. And I won't even post the EPS beyond Christmas because it's about as ugly as it comes. I guess as usual near New Years we spend each day hoping and analyzing 2 week out ensembles to see any sign of a pattern change by mid Jan. So if we're lucky we'll get 2 weeks because Feb is dead to me until it proves otherwise
weatherfide
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If the Euro is right, I might score a record high on Wednesday. Definitely going to get above 68 degrees, though, and not drop below 60 at night. That should bump up my December average. Probably not go above normal for the month, though, depending on what happens after Christmas.
What happened to the pattern change around New Years/beginning of Jan? Oh wait it changes everyday so no need to believe it will be hot or cold lol
If the EPS is right with the zonal flow it's going to take awhile to get out of that. No way it happens by New Years.
weatherfide
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Here is the EPS for after Christmas. It shows a huge amount of variability to me, but generally has a ridge out west and a trough in the east, there's just not a lot of really below normal cold air available? It could be averaging timing of deep troughs/ridges that are skewing things, though. You could have "cold enough" troughs that stay around for 3 days and then a quick 1.5 day warmup that go's into the 60's and then is replaced by another 3 day trough...just can't tell from the averages.
Edit: also, it's likely wrong. Could be worse or better, who really knows?
Edit: also, it's likely wrong. Could be worse or better, who really knows?
This reeks of can kicking
packfan98
Moderator
Let me point you to the complaining thread...
I'm sure it will NOT happen, but at least they give me a chance of a bit of ZR/IP Sunday morning.
SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds around 5 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
SUNDAY
Cloudy. A chance of rain showers, freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Little or no sleet accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds around 5 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
SUNDAY
Cloudy. A chance of rain showers, freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Little or no sleet accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
3K NAM has been showing it so I wouldnt be shocked.
Better score while we can. Euro AI moving toward an ugly pattern out in time. Fits the MJO progression of stalling out in unfavorable phases, as usual in winter. CFS moving steadily in a less favorable direction also for January. At this rate, we're going down the same path as every other winter in the last few years: A few cold shots, followed by crap for days/weeks.
Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.
Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.
Bro relax and enjoy the weather week by week. I really don't understand the looking so far in advance. The default negative setting many have is understandable, but try to take it out of what we are trying to break down. The extended on models are going to change over and over and over again. I'd argue so far this Winter, they have actually changed for the BETTER as we approached a timeframe that originally looked shot. This entire month has been a prime example of that. I don't see an issue with looking way ahead and trying to gradually learn & see if we can get better at forecasting the longer range, but sometimes i feel like people look at it so much that they are just constantly living in the future. Just my opinion, but sticking to what is right in front of us (Between now & the next 10 days) is the way.
That hook back on the MJO is exactly why forecasting the MJO is an absolute crap shoot lmao.
Yeah I don't disagree. But like how many winters in a row now have we seen the bulk of the season spent on the right side of the diagram? The higher bust risk, IMO, is believing forecasts that show a robust wave entering phases 7-2.
It seems like every time we see that happening 2 weeks out, as we get closer, the wave dies or loops back and remains in P6 and 5. I don’t know what it is, but something is driving that. Until that quits happening, I'm going to be skeptical of colder long range forecasts. Hopefully, this year will be different.
We’re basically banking on a 2-3 week window hoping the MJO cooperates. This is what winter has become in the eastern US now.
this is bringing back some old memories. It’s way too soon to know what the pattern will be at new years but I think it’s what we’re all keeping an eye on. I like to see either the EPO or AO go negative around January 1. Preferably both. Give me my cold first then we can worry about the snow around the second week of January.
I know yall got mixed opinions on this guy. But still worth a watch that's worth going back to if it does or doesn't happen.