From what I can see on my phone, looks like the trough stays positive tilt too long.View attachment 155883
Dang, you would think this much energy would give quite some remarkable surface features on the GFS
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
From my eyes.. the flow is too fast for magic to really happen. It’s so much harder for timing to be right when energy is moving at break neck speed.
GFS was nice but the ensembles are meh. I don’t see this pattern delivering unless we can find a way to slow things up a bit.
Best case in a pattern like this is you can get an upper level low quick diving down and you can get some broken mountain containment stuff (which can certainly be fun) but it would be an isolated few that get in on the action.
Regardless it looks to at least be cold leading up to Christmas and that’s always a good thing to feel like Christmas when it is Christmas. I think if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas .. you may have to keep dreaming lol
GFS was nice but the ensembles are meh. I don’t see this pattern delivering unless we can find a way to slow things up a bit.
Best case in a pattern like this is you can get an upper level low quick diving down and you can get some broken mountain containment stuff (which can certainly be fun) but it would be an isolated few that get in on the action.
Regardless it looks to at least be cold leading up to Christmas and that’s always a good thing to feel like Christmas when it is Christmas. I think if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas .. you may have to keep dreaming lol
This. We always seem to lose our digging mechanism when it counts. Usually via a wave crashing into the pacific NW. This is just something I’ve observed over the years. It’s hard to get that PNA in your favor and it’s even harder to hold it there long enough for a wave to dig to the correct latitude. It seems to get harder every year.
Fixed that for ya Jimmy! I think anyone that has lived long enough in the South remember these snow droughts. It only takes one good one to catch up on the law of averages (We are due a good one!) Pulling for a good old fashioned Miller A to deliver the goods in January!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
December 1993 was an interesting month in NC
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Anyone know where a write up is on that December 22-24 1993 storm would be? Can't google it without March 1993 spamming the search.
The little I remember of that is I believe it was a trailing wave on the cold front from the previous system. The snow was gone by Christmas but we did have some snow showers on Christmas night. This is, of course, local to Gaston County.
Got ya. I feel like that one brought a couple inches of snow to the Midlands. No one ever talks about that storm much.
JHS
Member
That little system dropped about 2 inches here. The we had 2 ice events here in early 1994.
whatalife
Moderator
It may have brought a couple of inches to the Midlands. I remember that little storm well. We got 2-3” of snow on the evening of December 23rd in my hometown of Eastman, GA (south central GA). It went back and forth with rain and snow for most of the day before turning to all snow just as it was getting dark (shocking everyone). Nothing like building a snowman on Christmas Eve.
That's awesome man! Thanks for sharing this. I wish I could find something on this somewhere.
wow
Member
I'm 100% sure it's not going to happen like this. I do think there is a good chance of a significant something happening.
Need to see this trend west to pop a gulf low but this fast flow is making it difficult
Need to see this trend west to pop a gulf low but this fast flow is making it difficult
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although the models are milder after Christmas today you can see the pull back beginning upstream over the NW Pacific as we approach New Years. Likely setting up a -EPO/+TNH in the following week.
Planetary vorticity advection is going to be our best friend
Planetary vorticity advection is going to be our best friend
Follow up. About an hour away from me
severestorm
Member
Enjoy your power while you have it
Pack it up boys. At least we’ll build the pack above us 
SnowNiner
Member
I like so far, that we're getting a western ridge, variably this year. But it and the resultant trough always looks to be too far east. Even though like @RainCold said, we're still struggling as usual with the MJO and pacific forcing, for some reason (perhaps the TNH/EPO webb mentions) we want to have a trough and bring in cooler air. A little different than previous years but same result...no snow. Let's see what January brings.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Today's Euro weeklies imho have the right overall path going forward here from now through about early-mid February or so, though the exact timing (day to day scales) shouldn't be taken too seriously.
The Nino-esque pattern late month gives way to a -EPO/+TNH after New Years and then we slowly fade into a more stereotypical Nina look as we get closer to February. I think our best chance for scoring a big winter storm this year happens during the -EPO/+TNH phase and/or as it starts to progressively fade into a -PNA & we get moist southwesterly flow aloft to overrun the preceding arctic air mass.
This ought to be a very fun ride.
The Nino-esque pattern late month gives way to a -EPO/+TNH after New Years and then we slowly fade into a more stereotypical Nina look as we get closer to February. I think our best chance for scoring a big winter storm this year happens during the -EPO/+TNH phase and/or as it starts to progressively fade into a -PNA & we get moist southwesterly flow aloft to overrun the preceding arctic air mass.
This ought to be a very fun ride.
