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Pattern December Dud đź‘€

Webberweather53 said:
Today's Euro weeklies imho have the right overall path going forward here from now through about early-mid February or so, though the exact timing (day to day scales) shouldn't be taken too seriously.

The Nino-esque pattern late month gives way to a -EPO/+TNH after New Years and then we slowly fade into a more stereotypical Nina look as we get closer to February. I think our best chance for scoring a big winter storm this year happens during the -EPO/+TNH phase and/or as it starts to progressively fade into a -PNA & we get moist southwesterly flow aloft to overrun the preceding arctic air mass.

This ought to be a very fun ride.

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What's puzzling to me is that we're not really experiencing La Nina conditions while we have a Nina...but we're going into more typical Nina conditions when Nina has faded or is fading.
 
Rain Cold said:
What's puzzling to me is that we're not really experiencing La Nina conditions while we have a Nina...but we're going into more typical Nina conditions when Nina has faded or is fading.
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There's too much westerly momentum in this background state (fueled by a warm tropical indo-pacific warm pool) to keep the typical Nina look around. It's advecting the mean standing wave pattern to the east of its normal position, with for example the Aleutian Ridge closer to the GOA/US West Coast. I think the classic Nina pattern will try to show up in February though as the wavelengths start to shorten (moving everything westward in the means) and there's some help from the MJO.
 
Rain Cold said:
What's puzzling to me is that we're not really experiencing La Nina conditions while we have a Nina...but we're going into more typical Nina conditions when Nina has faded or is fading.
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Eh I’d say this cold start is pretty on cue for Nina’s since there better up front and suck on the back end
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's too much westerly momentum in this background state (fueled by a warm tropical indo-pacific warm pool) to keep the typical Nina look around. It's advecting the mean standing wave pattern to the east of its normal position, with for example the Aleutian Ridge closer to the GOA/US West Coast. I think the classic Nina pattern will try to show up in February though as the wavelengths start to shorten (moving everything westward in the means) and there's some help from the MJO.
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The climatological shortening of the wavelengths is one reason among many that Nino winters tend to be backloaded more than Ninas.

This pattern we're seeing late month is a good example of that. If we had a legitimate Nino to couple with that, we'd almost certainly be torching (as is common in late Dec of El Niño winters). Oth, as time goes on & we approach February, the wavelengths start to shorten, and the ridge that was over south-central Canada in a big Nino winter begins to move westward towards the Canadian Rockies, triggering more of a +PNA by Feb
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's too much westerly momentum in this background state (fueled by a warm tropical indo-pacific warm pool) to keep the typical Nina look around. It's advecting the mean standing wave pattern to the east of its normal position, with for example the Aleutian Ridge closer to the GOA/US West Coast. I think the classic Nina pattern will try to show up in February though as the wavelengths start to shorten (moving everything westward in the means) and there's some help from the MJO.
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Do you think the mjo keeps moving into phase 7-8-1 with a healthy amplitude or stall out like the euro has been predicting? Seems like in years past, models dampens out the wave too much and it corrects stronger.
 
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packfan98 said:
Do you think the mjo keeps moving into phase 7-8-1 with a healthy amplitude or stall out like the euro has been predicting? Seems like in years past, models dampens out the wave too much and it corrects stronger.
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I don’t see any real reason why it won’t stay strong overall at least into 7-8 or so.

This is one of the few times where I think we will see the MJO verify closer to the CFS/GEFS than the EPS.

The EPS is generally better at forecasting the MJO than the CFS just about everywhere in tropics, except when an MJO wave is being initialized over the maritime continent (phase 4-5), which is where it is now.

I see a lot of similarities to the current forecast bifurcation between the extreme EPS & CFS suites & this paper from Kim et al (2014) that I read several years ago. Even despite a decade plus of model upgrades to the EPS, many of the same biases still linger

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https://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim2014.pdf
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don’t see any real reason why it won’t stay strong overall at least into 7-8 or so.

This is one of the few times where I think we will see the MJO verify closer to the CFS/GEFS than the EPS.

The EPS is generally better at forecasting the MJO than the CFS just about everywhere in tropics, except when an MJO wave is being initialized over the maritime continent (phase 4-5), which is where it is now.

I see a lot of similarities to the current forecast bifurcation between the extreme EPS & CFS suites & this paper from Kim et al (2014) that I read several years ago. Even despite a decade plus of model upgrades to the EPS, many of the same biases still linger

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https://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim2014.pdf
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Music to my ears! Thank you. I had heard some other Mets say that there wasn’t anything that should halt the progression. I didn’t want to seem like a simp for wanting the CFS depiction to be right.
 
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18z gfs mean much improved more big storm members


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
It may have brought a couple of inches to the Midlands. I remember that little storm well. We got 2-3” of snow on the evening of December 23rd in my hometown of Eastman, GA (south central GA). It went back and forth with rain and snow for most of the day before turning to all snow just as it was getting dark (shocking everyone). Nothing like building a snowman on Christmas Eve.
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That’s correct, I was all of six years old and this event and the February 12, 2010 storm are the two biggest snowfalls that have ever occurred in Eastman during my life. The annual from South Dodge Elementary that year actually had a picture of the school covered in snow as the center picture. I have always been told that the forecast was just for rain only, watching the snow fall that night was one of my best memories as a child! I had no clue that there was a fellow Dodge County Indian on here!
 
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