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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That setup toward the end of the euro made me look up our record lows
jeremyt
Member
Is that as accurate as hurricane season being over in July? Asking for a friend!
griteater
Member
I like how the trough tries to escape east here on the EPS, and the Aleutian Low / western ridge steps in and says not so fast my friend. The Pac Jet extension in early Dec looks to be in a good location, not too weak / not too far extended....and also, pretty far south / equatorward, especially for early winter / December, and not sending a bunch of low pressure into Alaska....looks Moderate El Nino like (2nd image). That could change, but it makes some sense with us going into a modest +AAM regime which is ideal (3rd image).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don’t want to jinx it, but man… this is easily the best overall pattern look I’ve seen in December since at least 2010.
Wulfer
Member
Amazing how close this weather change is to the date of the Jupiter planetary alignment. Changes in weather usually happen around events like Jupiter. Jupiter reaches its direct alignment with the Earth and the Sun on Dec. 5th...
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Flurries as far south as Cocoa Beach.
Really hope the pacific energy doesn’t disrupt the Siberian express.I like how the trough tries to escape east here on the EPS, and the Aleutian Low / western ridge steps in and says not so fast my friend. The Pac Jet extension in early Dec looks to be in a good location, not too weak / not too far extended....and also, pretty far south / equatorward, especially for early winter / December, and not sending a bunch of low pressure into Alaska....looks Moderate El Nino like (2nd image). That could change, but it makes some sense with us going into a modest +AAM regime which is ideal (3rd image).
griteater
Member
Day 8-14 Temperature Probabilities from analogs of CPC pattern forecast
If there’s a trend I’m noticing, it’s a more eastward shifted western ridge, eastward shifted eastern trough, more energy trying to get trapped in around Alaska which sort of flattens the western ridging a bit. It’s not a bad thing given we already struggle with pacific ridge position. Truly hope we can work on that cutoff near Baja California been so long since that has worked out, managed to move a cutoff around Baja eastward into a departing TPV lobe around SE Canada. 
Spire is probably the best evolution with the Baja cutoff I’ve seen since that EC AI run a while back 
Woah baby that would do it right there
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
That scenario makes sense with energy ejected east with hp to the north east
18z GFS I know it's long range but the main ingredients are on the table. So it's nice to see a signal. Shows the possibilities.
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Maybe it’s like baseball. We need to get on base with a bunt single to unleash a hot streak
If there’s a time period I’m starting to focus on within this pattern for us to score, it’s here. That southern stream wave around Baja cali and TPV in The NE US. certainly can trend the right way real quick. Need that TPV to slide NE cleanly and something to kick that Baja wave or at least get some energy that sheds off of it, perhaps for some overrunning, and in the same process keep the area around the lakes clean for some trailing high pressure. This look imo starting to get my attention for scoring prospects 
BHS1975
Member
We've had a lot of trouble getting those Baja waves to kick out and they just get stuck or shoved to the southwest.