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Pattern December Dud đź‘€

Stevo24 said:
One thing on our side is as with anything EVENTUALLY things have to go our way again. And with all the crappy winters we have had I would think that the longer we go without something the better chance we have as each year passes.

is it suppression city?
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Yes it’s that suppressed look we’ve come to know and love (hate). Also let the record show I despise cold looks this early in the season as I think it spoils the pattern for when climo shows up later. But that’s just me. We’ll take what we can get in 2024. Also if I’m not mistaken we had some big 1st and 2nd week December winter storms 3-4 years in a row around our region with last year being the first year in a while where we didn’t get one. Wouldn’t surprise me to see that trend pick back up where we left off. Just something to think about.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yes it’s that suppressed look we’ve come to know and love (hate). Also let the record show I despise cold looks this early in the season as I think it spoils the pattern for when climo shows up later. But that’s just me. We’ll take what we can get in 2024. Also if I’m not mistaken we had some big 1st and 2nd week December winter storms 3-4 years in a row around our region with last year being the first year in a while where we didn’t get one. Wouldn’t surprise me to see that trend pick back up where we left off. Just something to think about.
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Not correct. The last good December storm was 2018.
 
JHS said:
Not correct. The last good December storm was 2018.
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Going back through my pictures it looks like there was also good snow on the ground in 19’ and 20’ as we went up 441 over the mountain and into Gatlinburg. Less snow on the ground in 21’ 22’ and 23’ but still some. Funny the way remember things.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Going back through my pictures it looks like there was also good snow on the ground in 19’ and 20’ as we went up 441 over the mountain and into Gatlinburg. Less snow on the ground in 21’ 22’ and 23’ but still some. Funny the way remember things.
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I think maybe I misunderstood you. You most likely did see snow up there like you said. I was thinking about upstate SC.
 
1300m said:
12/1-12/3 window is looking ripe. Arctic front draped along the Gulf with strong digging energy around TPV that may interact with southern stream energy.
View attachment 154661

View attachment 154662
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We need to back that trough diving down through the Great Lakes to the Dakota's/Minnesota and we're in business. Certainly doable at this range.
 
Obviously grain of salt here. But a couple EPS members with strips of snow DEEP into the south. Goes to show where it can snow and what can happen if you have abundant cold air around
IMG_1387.png
 
The cold air for this coming period is legitimate! The last GFS run I looked at agreed with the ECMWF with highs in the fourties for several days. If we can get some energy or a disturbance in the right place at the right time, things could get very interesting for many of us long suffering winter weather lovers.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Regarding the suppression we're seeing in the modeling in the 8-10 day range, it's worth remembering that the models almost always overestimate the strength and southern push of these arctic outbreaks at this range. And, the ULL near California in this time range isn't the only trigger to keep an eye on and look for a short-wave not yet well modeled that may round the top of the PNA ridge and either interact with the ULL as mentioned earlier or perhaps be sharp enough to trigger a weak southern slider on its own.

It is an interesting period to kick off the winter.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
This EPS run really brought back the +PNA/-EPO couplet in the longer term View attachment 154668
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We are obviously honing in on the timeframe after the Turkey Day storm passes as cold air filters in. For a storm, we are watching to see if a piece of the Baja wave can eject east <OR> a wave can dive down from the northern stream into the Southern Plains or dive down sharply right on top of us in the SE <OR> both of those occur with some phasing

We may not come close to getting a storm here, but one of the analog comparisons that has been peppered on the CPC forecasts is from December 1958. Back-to-back winter storms occurred on December 11-14, 1958 (thanks to EWebb for the accumulation maps)
Hapf7Kb.jpeg

1xJ819r.jpeg

Olthx2m.jpeg

Tp2LgRs.jpeg



Here is a surface / 500mb animation from December 10-15, 1958:
PWsk290.gif



Here is what the pattern looked like for December 10-15, 1958
NottoNE.png



Here is today's EPS, pattern average for Nov 29-Dec 4
oRYpTvH.png



Here is today's JMA run which looks nice for Nov 29-Dec 1
flsbPr3.gif



Here is western amplification shown at the end of the EPS run for Dec 3-8
kg8mb6I.gif



That is all. Hope yall are having a dam good day
 
griteater said:
We are obviously honing in on the timeframe after the Turkey Day storm passes as cold air filters in. For a storm, we are watching to see if a piece of the Baja wave can eject east <OR> a wave can dive down from the northern stream into the Southern Plains or dive down sharply right on top of us in the SE <OR> both of those occur with some phasing

We may not come close to getting a storm here, but one of the analog comparisons that has been peppered on the CPC forecasts is from December 1958. Back-to-back winter storms occurred on December 11-14, 1958 (thanks to EWebb for the accumulation maps)
Hapf7Kb.jpeg

1xJ819r.jpeg

Olthx2m.jpeg

Tp2LgRs.jpeg



Here is a surface / 500mb animation from December 10-15, 1958:
PWsk290.gif



Here is what the pattern looked like for December 10-15, 1958
NottoNE.png



Here is today's EPS, pattern average for Nov 29-Dec 4
oRYpTvH.png



Here is today's JMA run which looks nice for Nov 29-Dec 1
flsbPr3.gif



Here is western amplification shown at the end of the EPS run for Dec 3-8
kg8mb6I.gif



That is all. Hope yall are having a dam good day
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That’s the last time Fayetteville saw a foot of snow. Crazy it’s been that long…
 
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