We tossIcon certainly checks a few boxesView attachment 154626
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
i don't really see what others are seeing in the icon
not enough lift to really get anything past nashville
not enough lift to really get anything past nashville
Pretty
That damn death ridge over AK, should be making everybody tingly! I’m gonna go cold and dry up here, maybe a clipper or two, but that means yall will be scoring some winter precip the first week or so of December!
GEFS for roughly same frame
Brent
Member
I still would like to see more snowy ensembles here before I get too hyped up but we'll see. Only 5 GEFS members had any snow at 18z meh way less than half the EPS at 12z
Seems the more open we are out west, the more of a shot we have at something, trade off is you run a risk at amplifying something out west
Insane 06z GFS. Suppression city.
Gulf Coast gets in the action before we do lol. Euro was mighty close too. I just can't get too excited yet, been burned so many times last few yrs
Regarding the suppression we're seeing in the modeling in the 8-10 day range, it's worth remembering that the models almost always overestimate the strength and southern push of these arctic outbreaks at this range. And, the ULL near California in this time range isn't the only trigger to keep an eye on and look for a short-wave not yet well modeled that may round the top of the PNA ridge and either interact with the ULL as mentioned earlier or perhaps be sharp enough to trigger a weak southern slider on its own.
It is an interesting period to kick off the winter.
It is an interesting period to kick off the winter.
gawxnative
Member
Yes it is to say the least!! Also a "howdy neighbor" as we are close by... as I am "between" Between and Monroe.. At least the winds seem to be relaxing some here for the rest of weekend!!!
Hey bud. Yep, I'm right up the street from you between Between and Loganville lol. Right here where the NW snow showers go to die and we struggle at the tail end of 33 and rain CAD events.
This is our year. I can feel it! Heck, we have something to track and it's not even turkey day.
I agree. Overall, it's going to come down to the little details, as it always does. The pattern looks quite favorable for BN temps, with decent to good ridging out west and a tendency for a well-positioned ridge/block over or near S Greenland and eastern Canada.
I like the suppression look this far out. Temps are always the big question mark and what looks really cold out in time often ends up being marginal at game time.
Anyway, it's nice to have something to talk about. And it's especially fun in December.
I think the 00z Euro shows the potential even with a worse H5 setup (tpv not as consolidated, less cold press, western ridge not as tall/sharp, less southern energy ejection). At 180, even though it had less stream interaction potential and a weaker consolidation of southern wave energy moving eastward, it still generated a light frozen qpf field all the way to the coast later on.
Moving after 180 (stupid, yes):
It's possible the 00z ICON could have been suppressed if the northern stream interaction wasn't strong enough, but I'll take my chances with that at this range.
Brick Tamland
Member
that’d be some wall to wall cold for early December 
North America cold weenies winning on that run 
One thing on our side is as with anything EVENTUALLY things have to go our way again. And with all the crappy winters we have had I would think that the longer we go without something the better chance we have as each year passes.
is it suppression city?