Pattern December Dud 👀

[jackendrickwx]

12/1-12/3 window is looking ripe. Arctic front draped along the Gulf with strong digging energy around TPV that may interact with southern stream energy.
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Man. That’s the recipe for sure. What a pretty map

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I think maybe I misunderstood you. You most likely did see snow up there like you said. I was thinking about upstate SC.

Yeah, for me, If I have to chase it's a miss. Leaving my snowless backyard to go see what someone else got, only to return to my snowless backyard is even worse.

 

[jackendrickwx]

highs in the 40s for days. It’s looking cold regardless

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Man this place is dead for the potential guidance is showing. Last few years have sucked I know, but this is what we live for (opportunities)!

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View attachment 154653

I've reached the cynical phase. Its just another head fake or North of the state line storm. I have no hope left.

 

[jrips27]

Euro is not warm post thanksgiving

 

[Brent]

And has the ICON ever been right about anything?

It was in January here the one week we had winter last year...

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

12/1-12/3 window is looking ripe. Arctic front draped along the Gulf with strong digging energy around TPV that may interact with southern stream energy.
View attachment 154661

View attachment 154662

We need to back that trough diving down through the Great Lakes to the Dakota's/Minnesota and we're in business. Certainly doable at this range.

 

[jrips27]

12z EPS also chilly

 

[SD]

That euro run was one of those give me that and it'll snow type looks. Way too much energy embedded within the flow to not produce imo

 

[jrips27]

Obviously grain of salt here. But a couple EPS members with strips of snow DEEP into the south. Goes to show where it can snow and what can happen if you have abundant cold air around

 

[weather bubba]

The cold air for this coming period is legitimate! The last GFS run I looked at agreed with the ECMWF with highs in the fourties for several days. If we can get some energy or a disturbance in the right place at the right time, things could get very interesting for many of us long suffering winter weather lovers.

 

[weather bubba]

Obviously grain of salt here. But a couple EPS members with strips of snow DEEP into the south. Goes to show where it can snow and what can happen if you have abundant cold air around
View attachment 154667

I'll take frame 42 and call it a win!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This EPS run really brought back the +PNA/-EPO couplet in the longer term

 

[Myfrotho704_]

inspirational

 

[Snowfan]

inspirational View attachment 154670

Like seeing the -NAO trend

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Very encouraging to read this

 

[Detective WX]

I'll be darned... Maybe a White Christmas after all? In all seriousness, a cold Dec would be a welcome sight in a furnace of the year that is 2024, and would buck my thinking of a 1931, 2001, '11, '15, 21, 23 type I was speculating given the furnace of a Nov we've been through.

 

[griteater]

Regarding the suppression we're seeing in the modeling in the 8-10 day range, it's worth remembering that the models almost always overestimate the strength and southern push of these arctic outbreaks at this range. And, the ULL near California in this time range isn't the only trigger to keep an eye on and look for a short-wave not yet well modeled that may round the top of the PNA ridge and either interact with the ULL as mentioned earlier or perhaps be sharp enough to trigger a weak southern slider on its own.

It is an interesting period to kick off the winter.

This EPS run really brought back the +PNA/-EPO couplet in the longer term View attachment 154668

We are obviously honing in on the timeframe after the Turkey Day storm passes as cold air filters in. For a storm, we are watching to see if a piece of the Baja wave can eject east <OR> a wave can dive down from the northern stream into the Southern Plains or dive down sharply right on top of us in the SE <OR> both of those occur with some phasing

We may not come close to getting a storm here, but one of the analog comparisons that has been peppered on the CPC forecasts is from December 1958. Back-to-back winter storms occurred on December 11-14, 1958 (thanks to EWebb for the accumulation maps)

Here is a surface / 500mb animation from December 10-15, 1958:

Here is what the pattern looked like for December 10-15, 1958

Here is today's EPS, pattern average for Nov 29-Dec 4

Here is today's JMA run which looks nice for Nov 29-Dec 1

Here is western amplification shown at the end of the EPS run for Dec 3-8

That is all. Hope yall are having a dam good day

 

[Webberweather53]

We are obviously honing in on the timeframe after the Turkey Day storm passes as cold air filters in. For a storm, we are watching to see if a piece of the Baja wave can eject east <OR> a wave can dive down from the northern stream into the Southern Plains or dive down sharply right on top of us in the SE <OR> both of those occur with some phasing

We may not come close to getting a storm here, but one of the analog comparisons that has been peppered on the CPC forecasts is from December 1958. Back-to-back winter storms occurred on December 11-14, 1958 (thanks to EWebb for the accumulation maps)

Here is a surface / 500mb animation from December 10-15, 1958:

Here is what the pattern looked like for December 10-15, 1958

Here is today's EPS, pattern average for Nov 29-Dec 4

Here is today's JMA run which looks nice for Nov 29-Dec 1

Here is western amplification shown at the end of the EPS run for Dec 3-8

That is all. Hope yall are having a dam good day

That’s the last time Fayetteville saw a foot of snow. Crazy it’s been that long…

 

[griteater]

That’s the last time Fayetteville saw a foot of snow. Crazy it’s been that long…

Back to 1969 east/northeast Greensboro is crazy too