griteater
Member
Bam.wx comment on WPO Index. Negative trend shown with -WPO / ridging in far North Pacific
Reverse the colors on these maps for -WPO
Reverse the colors on these maps for -WPO
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Oh, my. The look of that JMA run is amazing!We are obviously honing in on the timeframe after the Turkey Day storm passes as cold air filters in. For a storm, we are watching to see if a piece of the Baja wave can eject east <OR> a wave can dive down from the northern stream into the Southern Plains or dive down sharply right on top of us in the SE <OR> both of those occur with some phasing
We may not come close to getting a storm here, but one of the analog comparisons that has been peppered on the CPC forecasts is from December 1958. Back-to-back winter storms occurred on December 11-14, 1958 (thanks to EWebb for the accumulation maps)
Here is a surface / 500mb animation from December 10-15, 1958:
Here is what the pattern looked like for December 10-15, 1958
Here is today's EPS, pattern average for Nov 29-Dec 4
Here is today's JMA run which looks nice for Nov 29-Dec 1
Here is western amplification shown at the end of the EPS run for Dec 3-8
That is all. Hope yall are having a dam good day
A closer look-see indicates a board-wide storm in the next 24-48 hours past the end of its run as the cold press would continue southward.
The good old days featured arctic fronts sagging southward as waves developed and moved along the boundary.
The new world features more north-south frontal zones and cutting and/or filling-reforming systems (i.e. Miller Bs).
The JMA takes us on a trip back in time to when the world was right.
Lord, I know better but I just can't unsee this JMA.
Note the PNW shortwave diving down and phasing with the ULL over the SW just as the TPV over the NE is lifting away. Textbook look for a big old-fashioned deep south winter storm.
Note the PNW shortwave diving down and phasing with the ULL over the SW just as the TPV over the NE is lifting away. Textbook look for a big old-fashioned deep south winter storm.
This is looking like the coldest GEFS run. You can still see some members try to spit something out early dec as well
Nice run to run change, colder run (coldest yet) and Barney colors at 850, and first run with many mean high temps across the upper SE in the 30s on the 2nd-3rd. 
Also gotta like how much this ens run opened up the Central/southwestern US but kept the same amount of EC troughing and a stronger -NAO block to boot. Potentially signaling more energy diving out of Canada
Also gotta like how much this ens run opened up the Central/southwestern US but kept the same amount of EC troughing and a stronger -NAO block to boot. Potentially signaling more energy diving out of Canada
To see those kind of temp anomalies in the ensemble mean at this range is impressive because it is basically signaling virtually full member support at 200 hours out.
Didn’t even check out the 12z CMC ENS but it’s definitely more bullish on a trailing wave 
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
I think energy diving down four corners would be most ideal or slightly east of there imo for winter events across the south and east
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This brutally cold arctic air mass that is on the GEFS/GFS and other guidance around day 9 originates over Siberia yesterday & today, where it's starting out around -30F to -40F.
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
One thing you don't see often is when the euro is colder than other models, especially the cmc
griteater
Member
Nice to see it’s not a lone ensemble member throwing us a bone
Pretty darn impressive agreement on the main players at D7 in the ops. IMO and recent past experience, strong op agreement at range is better than same-suite ensemble agreement.
These are usually 360 maps from one ensemble suite. And it usually things just get pinned at 300+.
It's encouraging to see this kind of a setup work in closer. The shape and orientation of the PNA ridge on the 12z ICON is really ideal for cold air transport into the SE. Lately, any ridging up near AK or NW Canada has been defeated by troughing in the SW, but that's not happening here. Throw in a little well-placed -NAO, and woof bark growl....
It's hard not to feel excited, while at the same time feel PTSD about an upcoming rug pull.
Agreed there are a number of ways we can score. The dates in and around the 12/22 - 12/24 1989 storm continues to show up in analogs, and that is one of the ways we can score as you mentioned, which is with enough of a consolidated northern stream wave diving in far enough west to amplify and initiate surface cyclogenesis along the Arctic front likely to be along/near the Gulf Coast with or without interaction from additional southern stream energy ejecting eastward.We are obviously honing in on the timeframe after the Turkey Day storm passes as cold air filters in. For a storm, we are watching to see if a piece of the Baja wave can eject east <OR> a wave can dive down from the northern stream into the Southern Plains or dive down sharply right on top of us in the SE <OR> both of those occur with some phasing
We may not come close to getting a storm here, but one of the analog comparisons that has been peppered on the CPC forecasts is from December 1958. Back-to-back winter storms occurred on December 11-14, 1958 (thanks to EWebb for the accumulation maps)
Here is a surface / 500mb animation from December 10-15, 1958:
Here is what the pattern looked like for December 10-15, 1958
Here is today's EPS, pattern average for Nov 29-Dec 4
Here is today's JMA run which looks nice for Nov 29-Dec 1
Here is western amplification shown at the end of the EPS run for Dec 3-8
That is all. Hope yall are having a dam good day
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NCSNOW
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Very rare when we have a window of opportunity to track/seek a winter wx event and its the qpf we are looking for and not the cold. Usually opposite.
I always say get the cold 1st, and if you can get it to hang out 5-7 days, that usually works in our favor 8-9 times out of 10.
I always say get the cold 1st, and if you can get it to hang out 5-7 days, that usually works in our favor 8-9 times out of 10.
griteater
Member
Yeah that 12/11/58 storm looked like a slightly more inland version of Dec ‘89. That’s a good point about the baroclinic zone being draped along the gulf coast post Turkey Day. Any waviness that can approach from the W or NW will easily ignite a gulf / SE coast low
Brent
Member
Dang we had 10 inches of snow in December 1958. 2nd snowiest December on record
Sign me up
Sign me up
Gary M
Member
Looking like I can bring the golf clubs inside for a while after my round Tuesday.
Oconeexman
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Shiii..cart heater and cover for the cart...only way to go!
@Rain Cold said it best, I'm cautiously optimistic with all the signals in the long/med range. Fully expect a complete floor drop, rug pull or something to happen and ruin it. But it's super encouraging to see Webb and grits positivity!