Didn’t realize how close this was until I looked at the mslp maps 
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
How many years has it been since we've had a bona fide Gulf low Miller A winter storm? Seems like 20 years.
It really might be 84 years
It varies in terms of who got hit, but all of these were big Miller A’s…
Dec 2018
Feb 2014
Jan 2011
Dec 2010
Feb 2010
Dec 2009
Feb 2004
Jan 2002
Funny. Second to the last one occurred in a +TNH heavy pattern you listed (2014)
...
Before that:
Mar 1993
Jan 1992
Jan 1988
Feb 1987
Mar 1983
Jan 1982
Feb 1979
Feb 1973
Mar 1971
Feb 1969
Jan 1966
Are we backing into something?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Time to book another stay at banner elk at this rate 
I’m stacking up this winter 
I’m stacking up this winter 
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Something interesting happened at 18z. There’s the same amount of ensemble members showing something but there’s several legit big dogs.
Dang this EC AI run looks like it’s gonna be more juicy then last run 
Oh my 
Beautiful 
Where dem dews?
Where dem dews?
Woof. Single digit dews into southern VA would do the trick
It gets even better. Major winter storm this run 
Hot damn
Wow at the duration. That's 30 hours between maps!
ECMWF-AIFS 24-hour QPF totals at hour 246:
Way to bring it home Fro with the model analysis.
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
About what I expected. This simply shows what most of us have been saying for days - there is potential in the pattern if we can get a digging wave especially if there is any degree of phasing. The analogs and now model output support this. Just have to get this into believable range.Way to bring it home Fro with the model analysis.
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
View attachment 154879
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Would be a decent ratio snow I bet but we can’t think about that
CNCsnwfan1210
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12/11/58 is still showing up as the top analog date in the CPC 6-10 day
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That and December 89 have been consistently showing up as well.
12/11/58 is still showing up as the top analog date in the CPC 6-10 day
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Brent
Member
12/11/58 is still showing up as the top analog date in the CPC 6-10 day
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Interestingly 1958 had snow on Thanksgiving here before a bigger storm on the 11th
I suggest y’all going to sleep Because nothing is topping that hotness we saw from the AI model
Stronger and further south energy on 00z ICON. Trough axis should try to go neutral tilt sooner, should favor better moisture transport.
No dice. Two shortwaves didn't quite interact and keep digging.
No dice. Two shortwaves didn't quite interact and keep digging.
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Feels like it’s been years since I went to bed and woke up to 3+ new pages. That feeling hits like a drug lol
If the AI model is somehow right, it will become the new GFS-FV3 from 2018. That one nailed it first 
I said it earlier today on the complaining thread that 12/5 is when we're going to have our first real threat. The models have been sending signals for that period for a while now.
all i am saying is that this run has the exact same look and vibe as that one 00 NAM run (everyone knows exactly what i'm talking about) before the january 2022 storm that dropped a foot of snow through most of the board. there was no precip during the next model cycleWay to bring it home Fro with the model analysis.
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
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I lied. Stayed up for the models. Looks like the GFS is making some positive strides here. Slowing things down 
On the AI Euro, one thing to watch is - the model runs that are delivering us a storm are taking this ridge that begins in NE Siberia and having it break anti-cyclonically (topple over to the right) as it tracks across Northern Alaska then down into SW Canada. This action drags a chunk of the northern stream down into the Central U.S. via a positive tilt trough that eventually becomes neutral tilt down into the SE, delivering a coastal storm.
I pity the fool that has to wake up at 3-4 AM tonight to do the play by play on the AI Euro...but somebody's got to do it. These model runs aren't going to play-by-play themselves
I pity the fool that has to wake up at 3-4 AM tonight to do the play by play on the AI Euro...but somebody's got to do it. These model runs aren't going to play-by-play themselves
GFS trying to dump the whole tropospheric polar vortex on us towards the end of the run 
That lil 18z Euro AI thingy from earlier was pure magic. You can’t draw it up any better 