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Pattern December Dud 👀

I mean at least we won't have a snow hole because there's zero cold air anywhere on our side of the planet like the last two winters in a row

So there's that

Yeah I'm very bitter still that it happened not once but twice. Once was whatever but twice??? Yeah last winter nearly broke me too

You would think this pattern would have better luck in theory
 
1300m said:
How many times have rogue pieces of energy appeared in NWP around D4-5 and given us winter storms in the past. You guys are right - if we can get that sort of amplified pattern for a decent stretch the odds go up. But we have been incredibly unlucky the past few years which is frustrating.
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I'd be interested to see how many times we had 2 weeks of BN temps with no snow in our area in DJF. I'm sure it's happened but even for us a pattern like the AI where you pound the trough with energy you'd have to think it would pan out at some point
 
It’s interesting because typically how a winter storm occurs in a +PNA pattern is a piece of energy breaks off from the Aleutian trough, the Aleutian trough retrogrades, the energy gets masked into but sneaks through the western ridge, and as the western ridge responds to the small retrogression of the Aleutian trough by strengthening and sharpening. No notable energy even sneaks out from the Aleutian trough until day 5-6. This area of the pacific is very poorly sampled. In 2022 we hit just right each time with energy diving down and those periods of the Aleutian trough relaxing and allowing the western ridge to sharpen. It wasn’t perfect, but they worked. It’s not far from that pattern either. And that was a -ENSO
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s interesting because typically how a winter storm occurs in a +PNA pattern is a piece of energy breaks off from the Aleutian trough, the Aleutian trough retrogrades, the energy gets masked into but sneaks through the western ridge, and as the western ridge responds to the small retrogression of the Aleutian trough by strengthening and sharpening. No notable energy even sneaks out from the Aleutian trough until day 5-6. This area of the pacific is very poorly sampled. In 2022 we hit just right each time with energy diving down and those periods of the Aleutian trough relaxing and allowing the western ridge to sharpen. It wasn’t perfect, but they worked. It’s not far from that pattern either. And that was a -ENSO
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If Grit's AI model images are right, there will be some energy somewhere at some point. If the ridge just sits over the Rockies for two weeks, then I'm not optimistic. But that seems quite unlikely.

The ridge will amplify, deamplify, and migrate around. And there will be energy that seems to show up out of nowhere at some point. As long as we get that kind of cold hanging around for that length of time, we'll see some fantasy storms at some point.

I'm at a 7/10 right now. I mean, how fun is it to even be talking about it at this time of year? Usually, we're punting early December so we can capture late December, only to punt late December and then January then February and finally we cool down BN late March, April, and May to kill severe season.

Given that, I think we're doing well. Quite well. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃
 
Rain Cold said:
If Grit's AI model images are right, there will be some energy somewhere at some point. If the ridge just sits over the Rockies for two weeks, then I'm not optimistic. But that seems quite unlikely.

The ridge will amplify, deamplify, and migrate around. And there will be energy that seems to show up out of nowhere at some point. As long as we get that kind of cold hanging around for that length of time, we'll see some fantasy storms at some point.

I'm at a 7/10 right now. I mean, how fun is it to even be talking about it at this time of year? Usually, we're punting early December so we can capture late December, only to punt late December and then January then February and finally we cool down BN late March, April, and May to kill severe season.

Given that, I think we're doing well. Quite well. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃
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Just like this 0A5F82F3-758A-4FFD-A4A5-841ABAC27A68.gif
 
Just want to make a quick post thanking all the great posters we have in this thread. Anytime pattern looks as good as this one it’s a joy to read the analysis here! Feels good to be interested this early in the season. Plenty of time feel like we at least hit normal snowfall this season if pacific cooperates as it is now!


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Some of the GFS / GEFS runs have been choppy, but the 12z GEFS matches up with some other modeling ideas for days 10-16 with the Pac Jet backing off and the pattern moving west. I’m not used to seeing such long wavelengths given that it is just early December (wide troughs and ridges) - that’s been a bit odd to me

19CF0838-BE0F-40C4-A34A-68C7AE4F8A10.gif
 
New Year's Resolution / Goals:

Current MJO Forecast - this looks reasonable, though maybe it won't be as high an amplitude at the end
fqokQ0Q.png


Here are years where the MJO progressed somewhere within the general 6-7-8-1-2-3 phases from late Dec into Jan that were also 1) Cool ENSO, and 2) +QBO (matches for this winter). +QBO is important in Cool ENSO winters as it favors more poleward North Pac ridging compared with -QBO winters, especially when Cool ENSO is weak
PnqH0u4.png

IqSxzUd.png

MOYvVPW.png

qxVlq3V.png


Here are the January pattern and temperature composites for those years (this fits well with the potential EWebb +TNH pattern ideas)
T3GxPSx.png

7TP01gP.png



* Small print disclosure - I did leave out one other year that matched, Jan '23. It didn't match the pattern of the other years - it was warm of course, always a possibility in this day and age *
 
It's going to be tough to get a SW to dig into a favorable position anywhere in the SE if and until we get the +PNA to retrograde and sharpen up a bit. The ensembles are indeed forecasting just that after the first week of December. Patience is in order.
 
One positive we can take away from the early December pattern is that the ensembles didn't pull the rug out from under us as we moved closer in this time (ala February). The Greenland blocking was not quite as strong, but overall, not too bad.
1ca47fb3-8e81-4fde-86b0-69b52ec1101b.gif
 
I honestly think this +TNH (Hudson Bay vortex) pattern is with us for the long haul this winter. We’re going to get a huge boost to this mean pattern in January as we see a favorable subseasonal bout of tropical forcing into the pacific and western hemisphere. Im not sure this pattern breaks down into a more classic -PNA until perhaps the wavelengths start to shorten later in February or March.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly think this +TNH (Hudson Bay vortex) pattern is with us for the long haul this winter. We’re going to get a huge boost to this mean pattern in January as we see a favorable subseasonal bout of tropical forcing into the pacific and western hemisphere. Im not sure this pattern breaks down into a more classic -PNA until perhaps the wavelengths start to shorten later in February or March.
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Is this a better pattern or worse than what we were looking at last Feb that never materialized?
 
December rarely pays out in my opinion. A few here and there. The one thing I have noticed is when we get cold now it’s too cold and suppresses moisture. Hopefully we can get moderate cold and a low to line up at some point this winter!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly think this +TNH (Hudson Bay vortex) pattern is with us for the long haul this winter. We’re going to get a huge boost to this mean pattern in January as we see a favorable subseasonal bout of tropical forcing into the pacific and western hemisphere. Im not sure this pattern breaks down into a more classic -PNA until perhaps the wavelengths start to shorten later in February or March.
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Hope so, because it looks like we're going to be cold and dry next week with highs in the 40s. Really hope the cold isn't going to be wasted.
 
jeremyt said:
December rarely pays out in my opinion. A few here and there. The one thing I have noticed is when we get cold now it’s too cold and suppresses moisture. Hopefully we can get moderate cold and a low to line up at some point this winter!
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we have done well in December on several years but not in a while for sure
 
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