Pattern December Dud 👀

[griteater]

00z EC AI sharpened up western ridge while part of the TPV energy held further west, which allowed more northern stream energy to enter and dig further west and initiate cyclogenesis along Arctic front. Being honest, seeing the TPV split apart does raise some alarm bells based on the past few years, but with a mean trough already established to the east, hopefully we don't repeat the same fate. Getting what we want always requires threading the needle, and too consolidated of a TPV with no backside energy would have been cold and dry, we just need the backside energy to orientate N/S and dig, not close off.
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I found your comment about alarm bells seeing the TPV split interesting in the sense that it just goes to show how A to Z has to go right in order for us to get a good wintry hit, and we all have concerns / biases in are minds from past setup failures.

One thing I’m noticing on the Euro AI is that it has the strongest Pac Jet / biggest jet extension next week. That has generally led to pushing the western ridge & eastern trough too far east (cold/dry with pattern breaking down quicker)....but on the 00z run, it seemed to add amplification into the pattern with the western ridge pushing up into Alaska, and also, it phased the northern stream with a piece of the baja low that was kicked out, i.e. a split flow / phasing look injected into a cold environment in the east

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gotta like that icon run. Energy around MT/WY was starting to slow and dig. It’s amping up the Alaskan ridge compared to previous runs as well

 

[Webberweather53]

This ICON run is so much colder than the previous several. Love it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This ICON run is so much colder than the previous several. Love it

Each run slowly holds it back but result is much colder

 

[DopplerWx]

K

In case we never get another model run with snow on the ground the rest of the week these are from the last 2 Euro AI runs that Fro and 1300 posted
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in years past so many times we had great ingredients but no snow on the models so I’ll take this

 

[Brick Tamland]

Really think we might have a shot at some snow here the first week of December. The models have been showing something for that time frame for a few days now. One thing for sure is it should be cold.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Verbatim, the GOM LP and its precip shield would likely get squashed on this run, but I'd argue that's just the look we all want at this range.

 

[1300m]

Gotta like that icon run. Energy around MT/WY was starting to slow and dig. It’s amping up the Alaskan ridge compared to previous runs as well View attachment 154722View attachment 154723

Dang 1052 high. That’s the first 1050+ I recall seeing so far (could be wrong).

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

12Z GFS has a SW entering the PAC NW this run diving SE to the Rockies. A big shift westward versus previous solutions.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lots of Clipper like solutions being thrown out but just a few tilts away and adjustments with the western ridge to our west from being something

 

[griteater]

GEFS trend loop. NE low anomaly / Eastern trough holding with U.S. bowl trough and NE Pac ridge working west. Good trends toward allowing a storm to form while maintaining some cold in the east

 

[BullCityWx]

Looks like Duke is gonna have to shut off the power!!!

Very dangerous cold comin in, likely to repeat the 2022 holiday season. PLEASE SHARE WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY

This does not belong in this thread

 

[snowc]

This does not belong in this thread

For December's deep freeze? This is likely. I will remove and put in Banter thread.

 

[snowc]

For December's deep freeze? This is likely. I will remove and put in Banter thread.

Done.

 

[Webberweather53]

Liking this euro run

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep. Not far off from the EC AI

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

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How did it do while passing through Ga?

 

[Webberweather53]

The Euro is reloading for another big arctic air mass after the first week of December and maintains a +PNA/-EPO for most of the run.

 

[Webberweather53]

The whole tropospheric polar vortex is about to drop in on this run as the GEFS has hinted at for a few days. Beautiful