griteater
Member
Euro 
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s just a parade of Arctic air masses and near 1050 hPa highs in the Euro.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good lord. I haven’t seen a high like that on any model in at least 2 years
griteater
Member
The Euro storm looks very much like the 2 December ‘58 analog storms. Northern stream wave drops down into the Southern Plains with cold trough established in the east
19581211 shown as top analog date
19581211 shown as top analog date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
EPS is reloading another big Arctic air mass after this first one goes by in the beginning of Dec
Broken024
Member
Did they change the euro run time? Thought it started at 1.
griteater
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Noticing the Aleutian trough starts to slowly back away to the west on the euro ensemble as it loses the upstream westerly momentum kick from this week’s +EAMT and planetary vort advection. We probably see another wave break over the NW territories or Alaska (-EPO) at some point
We always struggle with having a consolidated SE Canada move out and leaving behind some energy to phase with the southern energy. In the past few years, we've matched the general pattern, but I've noticed that there always seem to be little vortex pieces that get stuck, and we can never entirely fix them as models progress. The 1958 storm does an excellent job of consolidating the energy (see attached). The 12z Euro is a bit of a mess. I hope we can fix this look, and it's good that we have something being spit out
Damn dude. Haven’t seen western ridging on means like this since January 2022
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Only way I can really see this pattern breaking down or resetting is a return of the -PNA some time in mid to late December or so if the Aleutian trough backs really far away into Eurasia. Starting to have some doubts that happens tho. Problem with the -PNA here in the long run is the MJO will be encroaching on the west pacific and the +AAM in the tropics should resist too much retraction.
There was another burst of momentum being added to the pacific jet towards at the end of the EPS. Never ending +PNA
Yesterday's epic JMA run has morphed into dry, frigid cold today. We toss. 
That may be the most amazing Euro run pattern wise in a while.
Looks like the Euro model runs come in faster now.
Brent
Member
It's the time change. All the models run earlier
It'll go back later in March again
And wow the GEFS has some bigger members now
griteater
Member
Euro actually comes out at like 12:15 now and faster as it runsIt's the time change. All the models run earlier
It'll go back later in March again
And wow the GEFS has some bigger members now
If that happens then it will be a December to Remember
Brick Tamland
Member
Would love that with the usual NW trend.