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Pattern December Dud 👀

NCSNOW said:
Yall think if the SER re appears mid month its brief or locks in?
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I'd wager a guess that outside of a well timed front or wedge (this doesn't seem impossible in this look) we are likely losing the idea of a cold Christmas. The whole process of adding momentum back to the pac jet and reestablishing cold is probably a 2-3 week deal so the cold is back roughly around new years
 
SD said:
I'd wager a guess that outside of a well timed front or wedge (this doesn't seem impossible in this look) we are likely losing the idea of a cold Christmas. The whole process of adding momentum back to the pac jet and reestablishing cold is probably a 2-3 week deal so the cold is back roughly around new years
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Is this going to be a pattern that reloads every 2-3 weeks throughout winter or are we gonna be looking at a warm January?
 
SD said:
I'd wager a guess that outside of a well timed front or wedge (this doesn't seem impossible in this look) we are likely losing the idea of a cold Christmas. The whole process of adding momentum back to the pac jet and reestablishing cold is probably a 2-3 week deal so the cold is back roughly around new years
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Unacceptable. This needs to be fixed before Christmas. Thx
Stevo24 said:
Is this going to be a pattern that reloads every 2-3 weeks throughout winter or are we gonna be looking at a warm January?
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It doesn't matter. You're out, sir. 😵
 
This has been comical to watch. Every cycle a different NWP suite has the wave sharpen up enough to produce some QPF, but each time it's a different suite, and each cycle it's only one suite. UKMET had to have it's moment in the sun at 00z. I think almost everything outside the NAM and CMC/RGEM have shown something at this point, so we know what's coming next.
ukmo-all-namer-vort500_z500-1732838400-1733151600-1733151600-40.gif
ukmo-all-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1732838400-1733173200-1733292000-20.gif
 
Stevo24 said:
Is this going to be a pattern that reloads every 2-3 weeks throughout winter or are we gonna be looking at a warm January?
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I'm still rolling with my thoughts from August just push the windows back 5-10 days
SD said:
If I had to put out a winter forecast today I'd go +1-3 Dec +2-4 Jan +6-8 Feb. Min temps for most of the region in the upper single digits (North/ normally colder) to upper 10s (south/urban centers). I think with the cold likely dumping in the rockies and upper Midwest areas of TX, AR, Ms, TN, NAl probably sneak in 1 or 2 significant overunning events, for us the carolinas if we score big its likely a miller a. Most likely period for cold/snow is 12/20-1/10 (possibly later as you go west), another lower confidence period late in November into the first handful of days in December. No reason to really predict snowfall vs average since our seasonal totals are low enough one good storm in an overall warm pattern puts you at 100+%. Caveats right now are the SPV, how much north Atlantic blocking is realized if any, how strong does the nina get, when does it start breaking down and where does the western ridge setup. But it's still late August so this will likely change
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1300m said:
This has been comical to watch. Every cycle a different NWP suite has the wave sharpen up enough to produce some QPF, but each time it's a different suite, and each cycle it's only one suite. UKMET had to have it's moment in the sun at 00z. I think almost everything outside the NAM and CMC/RGEM have shown something at this point, so we know what's coming next.
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What areas do you think have the best chance of potentially seeing anything?
 
KyloG said:
We going to have really blowtorch the back half of Dec to not finish BN...I mean it is us...so yeah I guess that probably happens. But right now the 1st half of Dec looks -7 to -8FView attachment 155047
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When I wrote that I had the SER back by 12/10 with the cold biased more in late November. Even with that if we get one of these heat pump SERs with the high dews and lows near 60 it won't take long to erase those departures unfortunately
 
SD said:
When I wrote that I had the SER back by 12/10 with the cold biased more in late November. Even with that if we get one of these heat pump SERs with the high dews and lows near 60 it won't take long to erase those departures unfortunately
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Dec 2022 was BN but then we went complete blowtorch in Jan/Feb. If that happens this year just kill me now...🤦‍♂️

It's why I am going to really appreciate any BN temps we can get.

cd107.15.181.206.333.9.33.48.prcp.pngcd107.15.181.206.333.9.34.53.prcp.png
 
KyloG said:
Dec 2022 was BN but then we went complete blowtorch in Jan/Feb. If that happens this year just kill me now...🤦‍♂️

It's why I am going to really appreciate any BN temps we can get.

View attachment 155049View attachment 155048
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Agreed it's been so hard to get any sustained cold around here in DJF this is a nice treat especially since we basically had extended summer through November this year
 
SD said:
Agreed it's been so hard to get any sustained cold around here in DJF this is a nice treat especially since we basically had extended summer through November this year
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In Shane’s forecasts we trust! You are my number 1 forecaster, after nailing this you knocked webber back to 2 and you take title as forums greatest forecaster. Lead us to glory shane!
 
SimeonNC said:
What areas do you think have the best chance of potentially seeing anything?
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At this point, odds are probably nowhere will see much of anything. Central to southern VA probably would stand the best chance to see a few snow showers, maybe as far south as the NC/VA border, but odds for anything widespread seem pretty low.
 
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