Pattern December Dud 👀

[Webberweather53]

Imo, this EPO/TNH pattern is being driven in large part by low frequency forcing from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (not the MJO). You cannot tell the story of this winter’s cold start without looking at how this year is strongly superposed onto the long-term observed Warm Pool trends since the mid 20th century.

 

[BullCityWx]

Much like a steak, the more pink the better.

 

[1300m]

Much like a steak, the more pink the better.


View attachment 154802

If only. Too bad the real EPS doesn't match up with that lower-res garbage that is going out to January.

P.S. This wasn't a personal insult on you @BullCityWx just personal frustration. Frustration towards all the false signals we've seen on lower resolution guidance over recent years include the actual EPS inside D7 and especially longer range guidance beyond D10.

 

[Skippy The Brat]

Spann says dry and cold here in central Bama next week.

 

[BullCityWx]

If only. Too bad the real EPS doesn't match up with that lower-res garbage that is going out to January.
View attachment 154803
P.S. This wasn't a personal insult on you @BullCityWx just personal frustration. Frustration towards all the false signals we've seen on lower resolution guidance over recent years include the actual EPS inside D7 and especially longer range guidance beyond D10.

Nah, thats more than a fair point

 

[1300m]

When you suck, you suck, and we really suck.

 

[Stevo24]

I expected it to be much busier in here with such an exciting pattern setting up.

 

[SD]

If we can back the winds off early next week the record lows at RDU would be achievable

 

[Brent]

Well we may not hit 60 for a very long time so there's that

First time since April was like Wednesday last week...

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I expected it to be much busier in here with such an exciting pattern setting up.

The models for the medium range need to improve soon. Right now, we're looking at mostly cold and dry weather for the next 7-10 days.

That said, we have a window during the first half of December at a minimum, so like every other weenie, we await each model run with hopeful interest.

 

[1300m]

Everything always looks great until you get to where models begin to have verification skill. Anything beyond D5 isn't safe.

 

[NCSNOW]

last night CFS looks Fantastic all the way out through December. Give me the check on that run and I'll happily take my chances. Plenty of Cold and EC troughiness around.

GFS throws a hand full of flakes around Sunday east of the Apps.

 

[cyclogent]

If we can back the winds off early next week the record lows at RDU would be achievable

Same in CHA. Record lows on generally mid-upper teens thru the 1st five days in December. But even with winds and clouds, if we can get 850 temps to dip into the -13C to-15C range we'll likely see surface temps in the teens anyway.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Everything always looks great until you get to where models begin to have verification skill. Anything beyond D5 isn't safe.
View attachment 154808

last 5 runs of gfs for same time

 

[jackendrickwx]

still could trend this to a flurry maker for some TN/VA/NC folks

 

[BHS1975]

That trough trending west is nice to see.

 

[BullCityWx]

think we've got a shot at some -15 to -20 total daily departures first week of December

 

[BHS1975]

I expected it to be much busier in here with such an exciting pattern setting up.

Cold and dry look right now.

 

[1300m]

last 5 runs of gfs for same time
View attachment 154811

Excellent counterpoint. The GFS has actually trended better - western ridge a tad sharper, and the entire trough axis has shifted west. Most everything else has trended the other direction it seems, so the GFS is probably on borrowed time unless the Euro starts heading in that direction. It's right there if the northern stream would dig in and interact some with those streamers of PVA from the upper low off the southwest US coast. We're still in that window where anything could happen, just frustrating to see the western ridge piece starting to slip away on some guidance.

 

[BullCityWx]

Saturated on the GFS up to the 700mb level(which is at -15C) on Sunday. I think we've got a real shot with that look to break the streak.