Baja wave keeps trending faster too…..close to fireworks if keep the trending going
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Baja wave keeps trending faster too…..close to fireworks if keep the trending going
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Really big difference now to as well is the ridge axis out west. It’s been shifting west, and this is opening up opportunity for us. we are looking solid atm on the gefs and the best run I’ve seen at H5 but it could still be so much better 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
looking at the GEFS panels, there are some big boys in there. I think this is our chance before a flip of the pattern
NCSNOW
Member
1038 hp over DC on canadian
Best gefs run yet. Pretty good increase for NC (about to post) and way more ice members 
00z UKMet looks decent here on the crude maps on SV (goes out to hr168). Core of the TPV moving east in SE Canada (in purple). Strong surface high works in behind the TPV and moves southeasterly into South-Central Canada, just north of ND/MN. Shortwave working thru the western ridge and diving down into Colorado. Heights across the Carolinas turning from northwesterly to westerly. If they can flip around to west-southwesterly like the Canadian, we'd be cooking there.
is a hit! I’ll just ignore the fact that our cold source region VA northward ain’t hitting on much. Time to stick my head in the sand and ride this one out for another 12 hours. We’re back boys.
Gefs mean for anyone interested 
iGRXY
Member
CAD regions of NC/SC get absolutely smoked on the GEFS. Multiple members with some combination of either snow or Ice.
Not bad trends but euro looks like the worse solution atm. No S/W once so ever to interact with our Baja wave 
Euro is absolutely horrific
6z GFS just past day 6:
If we can get some support from other models (..euro), we're (finally) getting close to a real winter storm track. .....it's been a while.
6z GFS total freezing rain for the event:
Total Kuchera:
Total Kuchera:
SimeonNC
Member
Do you have the mean/individual members?
Downeastnc
Member
00z Euro was an outlier at H5 around D6-7 with less energy in western Canada. 06z Euro has significantly more.
Fairly good agreement on the major players at D6 now on the 06z Euro/GFS and 00z CMC/UKMET.
Fairly good agreement on the major players at D6 now on the 06z Euro/GFS and 00z CMC/UKMET.
NCSNOW
Member
We got em all on board. Be approaching the 120 hour start time by late Sun night. Thats when you can have high confidence its a highly legit threat. No way to iron out details exactly for your backyard at that point in time. But if the models hold serve at 12z, today, 0z tonight and 12z again tommorow. We are in big time business. Thats been my rule of them. Get a consensus and cross 120 hr start time mark usually bodes well.
This will be an easier catch for models. They can clearly see the H5 setup and baja energy. Its the kickout of the sw/baja energy timing and Northern Stream energy,vorts to gas light the baja energy that will be the foggy element for them.
This will be an easier catch for models. They can clearly see the H5 setup and baja energy. Its the kickout of the sw/baja energy timing and Northern Stream energy,vorts to gas light the baja energy that will be the foggy element for them.
iGRXY
Member
GEFS mean went down vs 0Z but that is due to way more members being Ice Storms
Do you think this could be more ice or possibly holding on longer to snow like back in 22?
I'll take door #6 and call it a winter.
Man it's nice to wake up and see several new pages in this thread. We're finally getting a little bit of model fantasy payoff for the kind of air mass we'll have in place. It's nice to see, and necessary for forum sanity, I think.
iGRXY
Member
Could easily see a 2022 redux. If and that’s a big if since this is still 200 hours out and we need way more consistent runs. With that said, if it does actually happen you probably see models showing ice and sleet for much of the western Carolinas and NE Georgia with a switch around I40 north. But we get a front end thumping of snow. Now does it hold on longer like it did in 2022 where we were expecting maybe an inch of snow before the switch or does it end up giving me another 7” of snow before switching would be the question IF it happens. We wouldn’t know those details until 24 hours out at the earliest. The HRRR was the first to start sniffing that out back then and it took the NAM all the way until we were 3 hours past the switchover before it finally picked up on what was happening.
Let's see who wins...this isn't 10 years ago when Euro always beat the GFS.
This is day 7 but the changes to get here start around day 5'ish. So would think we see some convergence this weekend.
This is day 7 but the changes to get here start around day 5'ish. So would think we see some convergence this weekend.
Just rolled into Maggie Valley headed to Cherokee for the weekend. Currently sitting at a balmy 23 degrees. Gets the blood flowing
Yep. How the models handle that lobe of the TPV north of the Great Lakes on day five is the thing to key on as the models run. The EMCF and ICON are similar VS the GFS and CMC which are also similar in closing off that backside piece by day 5 rather than the energy getting absorbed by the larger trough.
With respect to the air mass, this has high end potential from a cold air damming standpoint if we don’t see drastic changes (we could of course)
CMC has a dewpoint of 8 deg in Columbia as precip is approaching into the wedge on Dec 8th
GFS has a dewpoint of 5 deg in Augusta as precip is approaching into the wedge on Dec 7th
I just hope this isn't a case of the models kicking the can down the road when we see something 10 days out only to go poof in a couple of days, rinse and repeat.
With the Baja upper low finally ejecting eastward, I don't think this precipitation event will completely go poof, but the timing and form of the precipitation could very well change many times in models.
European suite really has a poor handle on this west coast energy. Big difference between 06z Euro and 06z Euro AI, with EC AI being much further west, resulting in an inland cutter later in the run.
174<240
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Just noticed your location update. Is that permanent or temporary? Be good to have you in this area
Hopefully permanent. Im glad to be here. But you may feel differently when all the snow ends up east this year.
Whoa, that's the stuff CAD dreams are made of.
Joey’s pancake house on a cold mountain morning. Undefeated
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ironically, we also started off the 2013-14 winter with an ice storm on December 8-9.
That it is. I just don't want this cold to be for nothing.
Here’s comes energy passing just east of B.C on the ICON