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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looks like a great time to live in Bama
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pacific jet extends a bit more later this week on this GEFS run, trapping the cut-off over the Baja, while also kicking the trough over eastern Canada a bit more eastward.
Euro much better this run. Looks like a miss but way closer to interaction here. Pretty massive jump 
Talk about massive run to run changes. One more jump SW and you got a winter storm here on the euro. One jump back NE with the energy and it’s a MA/NE clipper. Really difficult setup here
00z
12z
00z
12z
weather bubba
Member
Tuesday's chance for flurries will be dependent on if there is any preciptation that survives the cold front's passage over the mountains. Right now it looks to be dry. It would be nice to see an upper lever disturbance in association with the front that will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air over us. As of now, KRDU is not expecting anything to happen. It would be encouraging just to see some snowflakes in the air.
I’m
gfs/gefs suite pretty isolated as far as having any QPF return for this. NBM entertains the possibility with some very slim odds, but i wouldn't get fired up unless somebody else starts showing something
If the shortwave doesn’t pass to our south and take on a little more neutral tilt anything more than a passing flurry will be about all she wrote.
Hmmm
Agreed. Like I had said yesterday I think VA/NC border and north stand the best chance at a few flakes as of now.
Gonna be a lot of Virga with the dry air sloshed down the mountain sides. I think we could see a step down process take place east of Statesville that could bring some flurries to the ground in the Piedmont
Looks like there’s some + vort advection in the ~800-700mb vicinity as well as a little bit of 850 FGEN even on the 12z GFS. It’s just not present on anything else, confusing to see it
If the mesos don’t hone in on it here shortly, definitely wouldn’t get excited about it
The only thing I'll say about the day 7 (lost) storm, is in the past, we would many times lose a storm at about day 7 just to have it come back by day 5. Not sure if that is an issue/thing anymore, but we'll see.
It’s definitely coming back. There’s clearly a signal there. This happens all the time
Avalanche
Member
Brick!!!!!?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some quick long range pattern musings:
A large-scale pattern change is coming into view on the models later in week 2 into week 3. Our first wintry wx pattern window of the winter season will probably close at some point later in week 2 or so.
The Negative E Asia Mountain Torque event that's been advertised for a while now should force some retraction of the North Pacific Jet/damp the current jet extension later in week 2 & week 3.
Due to the higher-than-usual background +AAM in the mid-latitudes which should advect the Aleutian ridge downstream/eastward some into the Gulf of Alaska. I don't think we're going full boar classic La Niña/-PNA in general, but we're headed for something in between that & the pattern we've seen the first few weeks of December. Rockies & Upper Midwest/Great Plains would probably be the most favored for cold/snow as we get near and just past mid-December.
It usually takes ~2-3 weeks for a Mountain Torque event, the associated pattern change + response from global frictional torques & atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to run its course.
I could see this pattern change that's coming generally stick into at least part of the Holidays, then the pattern we've seen the first few weeks of the month may try to re-emerge near the tail end of December &/or early January.
A large-scale pattern change is coming into view on the models later in week 2 into week 3. Our first wintry wx pattern window of the winter season will probably close at some point later in week 2 or so.
The Negative E Asia Mountain Torque event that's been advertised for a while now should force some retraction of the North Pacific Jet/damp the current jet extension later in week 2 & week 3.
Due to the higher-than-usual background +AAM in the mid-latitudes which should advect the Aleutian ridge downstream/eastward some into the Gulf of Alaska. I don't think we're going full boar classic La Niña/-PNA in general, but we're headed for something in between that & the pattern we've seen the first few weeks of December. Rockies & Upper Midwest/Great Plains would probably be the most favored for cold/snow as we get near and just past mid-December.
It usually takes ~2-3 weeks for a Mountain Torque event, the associated pattern change + response from global frictional torques & atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to run its course.
I could see this pattern change that's coming generally stick into at least part of the Holidays, then the pattern we've seen the first few weeks of the month may try to re-emerge near the tail end of December &/or early January.
Nam 12km has some spotty returns east of the mountains but the 3KM looks closer to the GFS for the flizzard
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah much improved on the 12k, previous run had nada. 3k probably its usual precip dry bias.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Definitely flood light worthy
If it wasn’t during the beginning of the work week I’d be booking Gatlinburg
HEAR ME OUT -
Look I know the sref is god awful… but it lines up with the American model and NAM 3km…
Look I know the sref is god awful… but it lines up with the American model and NAM 3km…
EC AI is back and looks better with slower energy again. Has a sleet/freezing rain event for CAD areas 
18z icon looks really good, everything 
12z UKMET looked like it was heading for a Miller B to New England bomb most likely. TBH as I had mentioned before, without a Greenland block I think the long wave pattern most favors the northeast, and a scenario like the UKMET paints may be the most realistic outcome at this range.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Energy out west looks much better this run of the GFS so far. We’ll see.
Looks like the GFS is another whiff
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Energy there and stronger just gets held up again.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
UL lolligagging over the Baja peninsula 
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SnowNiner
Member
Has Baja energy ever come out when we’ve needed it to? Seems like whenever we score in +pna regimes we get northern stream energy out of Canada coming off the ridge just right and it tilts just enough for cyclogenesis near the base of the trough.
I would not put any bets on getting some kind of phase of that Baja energy. It’s always a tease.
I agree that we more than likely won't get the full phase, but if it stretches and a stream of it interacts and helps to tug the entire northern stream trough further south, that would be the best-case scenario IMO.
The danger in that though is you could end up with a trough that gets too amplified ala likely where the UKMET was going, which would probably be a M.E.C.S in New England and just a mess to rain for us haha.
Would also really help to if we just get a quicker, but more wound up exit of the TPV to our NE, and instead of more northern stream energy behind the trailing vortex, just a clean trailing ridge behind it for a stronger high pressure > CAA east of the apps. Something like the CMC/GFS from last night. The 00z GEFS from last night was the best example of that ens wise. I’d imagine a quicker exit increases odds of something digging further given stream separation
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Updated CANSIPS & CFSv2 500mb forecasts for Dec-Jan-Feb.
Can't say I don't generally agree with them. Generally close to the analog forecast.
Can't say I don't generally agree with them. Generally close to the analog forecast.
18z Euro was about to go boom boom.
Yup. Looked closer the the 00z GFS run last night then any so far today 
SimeonNC
Member
What about the ensembles I haven't seen any posted since this morning