Pattern December Dud 👀

[Webberweather53]

Fairly big difference day 10+ over the arctice on the GEFS v/s EPS. Obviously we want the EPS...to block or not to block....who you got...

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Comes down to the latitude and extensiveness of the pacific jet. A stronger/poleward shifted jet lowers the heights over Alaska & the Bering Sea more on the GEFS. Today’s EPS took a step towards the GEFS in the long range.

It’s a delicate balance between having a strong enough pacific jet to trigger a +PNA but not too strong that we get stuck in an east-based Nino type pattern. We also don’t want it to totally retract to the point where we get stuck in the canonical La Niña/-PNA pattern

 

[accu35]

after this hot summer we just had, let the cold come.

 

[BullCityWx]

30% of the GEFS members at 12z have at least a trace on Sunday for MBY.

 

[Tarheel1]

I expected it to be much busier in here with such an exciting pattern setting up.

People work

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

People work

It’s Thanksgiving week. Nobody is working.

 

[Stevo24]

It’s Thanksgiving week. Nobody is working.

Plus iv been here long enough to know when there’s anything good coming this place is hoping workday or not.

 

[ILMRoss]

I expected it to be much busier in here with such an exciting pattern setting up.

we've had plenty of epic d8-d10 looks last few years that don't didn't close. coffee is for closers. we're in eternal "there's concepts of a plan here" stage of storm tracking. eyes will come when a threat breaks containment into d5

 

[iGRXY]

Honestly I’d love to score something this earlier but just having a cold December or really just some cold in general even if it’s dry is a win. Outside of a couple of weeks in totality, we didn’t get a climate fall. It took until late October and November to get upper 60’s which is above avg still

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro, like the Canadian has a winter storm technically 12/7 into 12/8 for NC/VA. Icey theme

 

[1300m]

Surely, surely a legitimate threat(s) will emerge in such a pattern. They for sure will, just hopefully for our latitudes.

 

[Brent]

All this snow in Colorado has to go somewhere eventually right

 

[KyloG]

Isn't the AI model the best model ever created...just saying...

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Isn't the AI model the best model ever created...just saying...

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It went for round 2 on the 10th as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[1300m]

Isn't the AI model the best model ever created...just saying...

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Always at 200 hours. Always the next round.

 

[1300m]

Always at 200 hours. Always the next round.

Can't phase the first round but smooth off a few edges and exponentially increase the error and it's happy hour in the phase lounge and all the vortices have lost their morality.

 

[Webberweather53]

I think it would be hilarious to watch it snow in the southern us before the mid Atlantic this winter. That kind of thing is possible in a pattern like this

 

[BullCityWx]

I think it would be hilarious to watch it snow in the southern us before the mid Atlantic this winter. That kind of thing is possible in a pattern like this

Oh they will not handle another 2001-2002 well

 

[GolfishardIknowit70]

I've been saying this but if the trough can retrograde west, then we will see some interesting model runs. Too far east imo

 

[Webberweather53]

I've been saying this but if the trough can retrograde west, then we will see some interesting model runs. Too far east imo

If we had this pattern with shorter wavelengths (Feb) it would probably work

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

If we had this pattern with shorter wavelengths (Feb) it would probably work

But we would have other things to worry about ( like a higher sun angle).