So basically you just can’t win anytime of the year is what you guys are saying lol
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I guess there’s a positive about this pattern having lasting power. It’s gonna be like bowling and trying to get a strike. No oil on the lanes, chips on the wooden surface, but there’s a shot of you hit the pocket just right. With each vort that digs in the west, there’s a shot. We need a right timing with amplification of the western ridge as a vort is digging. It’s certainly possible
If we ever get the western ridge to stand up and time out some energy riding down it some, if not most, will score as @Rain Cold said last night.
griteater
Member
I'm just here for the clown maps, and 'so I don't get fined'
18z AI Euro...
18z AI Euro...
griteater
Member
Honestly, I was surprised to see the degree at which the AI models are outperforming the regular models per this chart. Now, that doesn't mean a thing per se for this one single run of course. I did mention it in here last week sometime that I thought the AI Euro did the best of the modeling at sniffing out in the extended range this flip to a colder pattern in late Nov / early Dec.
On this chart:
AIFS = AI Euro (red dashed line)
IFS / HRES = Euro (red line)
Graphcast / Pangu = other AI models
NCEP = GFS
UKMO = UKMET
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One reason the gefs probably isn’t super crazy about -EPO in the long term as the EPS is. Noticed some members, including the GFS op now, dump a chunk of the polar vortex and lot of the brutally cold air from Siberia back into Alaska as the ridge pulls away into Siberia.
This scenario doesn’t seem likely, but I’ve seen it happen many times (& not be well forecast) as these -EPO/WPO regimes fade.
This scenario doesn’t seem likely, but I’ve seen it happen many times (& not be well forecast) as these -EPO/WPO regimes fade.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In the right situation, downstream development off a big ridge over Siberia can force a trough over Alaska and that tugs a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex along with it, leading to a +EPO. That scenario doesn’t seem likely but it is possible
griteater
Member
@Webberweather53 - what do you think about the MJO going into Phase 7-8 late Dec into Jan and it helping to weaken the Strat PV... maybe a boost to the Strat Reflective Index and more -EPO to go along with your low frequency -EPO / +TNH ideas?
Still some noise in the gefs next Sunday. More then likely a clipper but a few interesting members nonetheless
Like this trend 
griteater
Member
It's not perfect or fantastic, but it's a better than average / promising pattern
It's the antithesis of the crappy pattern mean we've been seeing over the past 8 winters
promise i'm not trying to weenie here, but i mean... there's more members with an actual coastal low than before and the gfs has introduced one (albeit well offshore)
a clipper or nothing is still the most likely outcome, but (and this is absolutely weenie speak) i can't ignore this fully with 138 hours to go
a clipper or nothing is still the most likely outcome, but (and this is absolutely weenie speak) i can't ignore this fully with 138 hours to go
vort trend. dig for me
Gonna trend this to a Burgaw blizzard at this rate
This has been something I've noted numerous times over the past few winters - these pieces of the main TPV break off and retrograde west underneath strong ridging (usually over Greenland). NWP has handled these events extremely poorly at range as well and this has essentially wrecked the downstream troughing and favorable looks on LR ensembles several times over the eastern U.S. the past few winters. Different location than where you're talking about, but likely the same mechanism driving it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've always felt pretty good about this period as being the time when the +TNH/-EPO would really come up. The fact it showed up so early this winter kind of surprised me a bit, especially when it had to overcome an apparently unfavorable MJO to do it, says a lot about where the base state is and how the TNH is more receptive to low frequency forcing greater than one season.
There's a gigantic subseasonal signal here for a +TNH/-EPO near the end of Dec into early January that's going to be heavily reinforced &/or arguably led by low frequency variability & internal storm track variability.
You can see the upper low over the southern tip of Hudson Bay becoming more consolidated and digging into the trough a bit more. If that trend continues, we may see stronger, more consolidated energy and more southwestward digging at the base of the trough.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
You’re exactly right and sure I would be a little mad. I will say yall deserve it so much more than us. Rather have yall win in this pattern because I’m almost guaranteed a CAD setup later on.