Wow at the duration. That's 30 hours between maps!
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ECMWF-AIFS 24-hour QPF totals at hour 246:
griteater
Member
Way to bring it home Fro with the model analysis.
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
About what I expected. This simply shows what most of us have been saying for days - there is potential in the pattern if we can get a digging wave especially if there is any degree of phasing. The analogs and now model output support this. Just have to get this into believable range.Way to bring it home Fro with the model analysis.
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
View attachment 154879
Would be a decent ratio snow I bet but we can’t think about that
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12/11/58 is still showing up as the top analog date in the CPC 6-10 day
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That and December 89 have been consistently showing up as well.
12/11/58 is still showing up as the top analog date in the CPC 6-10 day
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
12/11/58 is still showing up as the top analog date in the CPC 6-10 day
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Interestingly 1958 had snow on Thanksgiving here before a bigger storm on the 11th
I suggest y’all going to sleep Because nothing is topping that hotness we saw from the AI model
Stronger and further south energy on 00z ICON. Trough axis should try to go neutral tilt sooner, should favor better moisture transport.
No dice. Two shortwaves didn't quite interact and keep digging.
No dice. Two shortwaves didn't quite interact and keep digging.
Last edited:
Feels like it’s been years since I went to bed and woke up to 3+ new pages. That feeling hits like a drug lol
If the AI model is somehow right, it will become the new GFS-FV3 from 2018. That one nailed it first 
Brick Tamland
Member
I said it earlier today on the complaining thread that 12/5 is when we're going to have our first real threat. The models have been sending signals for that period for a while now.
all i am saying is that this run has the exact same look and vibe as that one 00 NAM run (everyone knows exactly what i'm talking about) before the january 2022 storm that dropped a foot of snow through most of the board. there was no precip during the next model cycleWay to bring it home Fro with the model analysis.
This is from the best performing model on earth. ***NOT MY FORECAST. NOT MY FORECAST***
View attachment 154879
I lied. Stayed up for the models. Looks like the GFS is making some positive strides here. Slowing things down 
griteater
Member
On the AI Euro, one thing to watch is - the model runs that are delivering us a storm are taking this ridge that begins in NE Siberia and having it break anti-cyclonically (topple over to the right) as it tracks across Northern Alaska then down into SW Canada. This action drags a chunk of the northern stream down into the Central U.S. via a positive tilt trough that eventually becomes neutral tilt down into the SE, delivering a coastal storm.
I pity the fool that has to wake up at 3-4 AM tonight to do the play by play on the AI Euro...but somebody's got to do it. These model runs aren't going to play-by-play themselves
I pity the fool that has to wake up at 3-4 AM tonight to do the play by play on the AI Euro...but somebody's got to do it. These model runs aren't going to play-by-play themselves
GFS trying to dump the whole tropospheric polar vortex on us towards the end of the run 
That lil 18z Euro AI thingy from earlier was pure magic. You can’t draw it up any better 