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Pattern December Dud 👀

jackendrickwx said:
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Nam3 has generally moved that direction as well altho a bit less pronounced in that trough being as sharp
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Be interesting to see if that will carry on into the NAMs tonight (signaling we are seeing this change due to observations) or if the NAMs remain, it’s likely disagreement and more then likely the HRRR/RAP is to sharp/bundled with the H5 energy. But it’s encouraging to see this trend in the last couple of hours
 
I would strongly advise not getting too fixated on the exact location of the returns on the Hi-res guidance. Very likely that any enhanced band and associated bullseye could be somewhere currently not shown. Lived on both sides of that fire before.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Be interesting to see if that will carry on into the NAMs tonight (signaling we are seeing this change due to observations) or if the NAMs remain, it’s likely disagreement and more then likely the HRRR/RAP is to sharp/bundled with the H5 energy. But it’s encouraging to see this trend in the last couple of hours
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HREF looks about the same as NAM3 as far as depiction of the energy at that time. brings pretty similar QPF return on the PMM but even .03-.05 is still gonna let some flakes fly at the least. NBM is not especially fired up but does bring some ok precip probs into the general central NC vicinity with temps 28-32f
qpf_006h_pmm.conus.f04200.png
 
Got a solid storm signal for around the 8th timeframe. Just not a single bit of cold air to go with it. Figures.
 
Latest CFS singing Webb Tune for Dec. Looks like we catch a 2 day BN window again around 19thish then AN till we get late month, before we maybe flip back BN. Odds heavily favor me playing Golf in the mid 50's over Christmas as opposed to sleigh riding.
Lots of back an forth swings is what its looking like is going to be the flavor this winter, December for sure.
Good news is the Long Range changes on the models every few days, not consistent. So maybe the outlook for Christmas improves by mid month. I'd be even more cautious trusting H5 patterns out past 10 days on the ensembles, cfs. Always good advice, but more-so this year. No one big driver of the pattern, so one miny shift anywhere, domino effects everything else
 
If it’s gonna rain in New York and Maine I don’t see what anyone is chasing in the s/e. Enjoy the light snow tonight, it’s the only storm I see for December outside of the mountains.
 
Pretty great cold day for early Dec. Roxboro only got to 41 and already down to 37 there
 
olhausen said:
That’s a healthy radar for a dusting that we are supposed to get. I haven’t paid a lot of attention since it’s still just to early for big snow most years. Regardless I was a little surprised to open the map and see this.
View attachment 155333
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Looks like we have quite a bit of dry air to overcome before precip begins to make it to the surface. A dusting looks like a good forecast at this point.
 
ITUSETOSNOW said:
Oh crap,,,Looks like 60s/70 next week.
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Just saw this on stupid KATL aft disco.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2024

Persistent broad upr trough over the eastern half of the CONUS will
not shift much this week thanks to a series of low pressure systems
rotating south from central Canada. This pattern will continue to
support reinforcing shots of colder (below average) temperatures
through at least the first part of the weekend, before warmer
conditions potentially return by the end of the weekend and into
early next week.

On the weather/precip potential side, a weak wave coming up from the
western Gulf/south Texas area will send some moisture and energy
toward the area by late Wednesday, bringing some very low POPs to
the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Low-level WAA and
increasing cloud-cover will keep temps above freezing (Wed ngt) so
any precip will be light and in the form of rain. It will be fairly
dry near the surface (Td in the teens/lwr 20s Wed aftn) so wouldn''t
be surprised to see a few sleet/ice pellets mix in at onset of any
light precip; but there should be no travel impacts across the area.

Beyond this, dry condtions will exist until the end of the weekend
into early next week as a cut-off upr low over the Desert SW begins
to eject east. There are some noteable disparities between the
models in the Days 5-7 periods (GFS is much faster bringing moisture
and precip east -- EC is the slowest and GEM appears to be the
middle ground). In any case, the blend just mentions "slight chance"
POPs Saturday and Sunday with an increasing chance heading into
Monday (which seems reasonable at this time). S/W ridging ahead of
this late weekend/early next week system will result in temps
rebounding to potentially above normal levels for early December
(highs in the 60s and lower 70s area-wide by Sunday and Monday).
 
Yeah, the mis-handling of the cold ( too cold) seems to be real this winter so far! I wasn’t supposed to get out of the 20s for like 2 weeks a few days ago, now Sunday and Monday next week , look to be in low-mid 40s! Models suck
 
Well for now it's cold already below freezing on the Kansas border at 6pm...

Somehow it's still warmer than the models had last week. At one point there was runs of a sub freezing high which we've still been above 40
 
Rain Cold said:
33 here. I still don't understand how I move to the west, higher elevation and i end up being warmer than the coast all the time. Smh
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Dam, you’re really like the Benjamin Buttons of snow weenies crushed dreams! 😲🤣
 
Rain Cold said:
33 here. I still don't understand how I move to the west, higher elevation and i end up being warmer than the coast all the time. Smh
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What is your elevation in reference to everything around you? When you were in Wake County you were in a relatively flat area where heat could escape rapidly. I can't speak for your area specifically, but like where I live, pockets of warm air are constantly being moved around with wind due to the hilly terrain. Mountain peaks are usually the coldest locations during the day, or when cold is moving in behind a front. Temps drop rapidly with the sunset, but by midnight you probably aren't dropping much the rest of the night. I've seen places in Avery County above 4k move up as much as 10 or 15 degrees at 10 pm from warm air coming up out of the valleys.

Sometimes I reach my low around midnight and it varies a degree or two the rest of the night.
 
J.C. said:
What is your elevation in reference to everything around you? When you were in Wake County you were in a relatively flat area where heat could escape rapidly. I can't speak for your area specifically, but like where I live, pockets of warm air are constantly being moved around with wind due to the hilly terrain. Mountain peaks are usually the coldest locations during the day, or when cold is moving in behind a front. Temps drop rapidly with the sunset, but by midnight you probably aren't dropping much the rest of the night. I've seen places in Avery County above 4k move up as much as 10 or 15 degrees at 10 pm from warm air coming up out of the valleys.

Sometimes I reach my low around midnight and it varies a degree or two the rest of the night.
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Thank you. That is helpful. I'm at around 1160'.
 
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