Pattern December Dud 👀

[Brent]

I mean at least we won't have a snow hole because there's zero cold air anywhere on our side of the planet like the last two winters in a row

So there's that

Yeah I'm very bitter still that it happened not once but twice. Once was whatever but twice??? Yeah last winter nearly broke me too

You would think this pattern would have better luck in theory

 

[SD]

How many times have rogue pieces of energy appeared in NWP around D4-5 and given us winter storms in the past. You guys are right - if we can get that sort of amplified pattern for a decent stretch the odds go up. But we have been incredibly unlucky the past few years which is frustrating.

I'd be interested to see how many times we had 2 weeks of BN temps with no snow in our area in DJF. I'm sure it's happened but even for us a pattern like the AI where you pound the trough with energy you'd have to think it would pan out at some point

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s interesting because typically how a winter storm occurs in a +PNA pattern is a piece of energy breaks off from the Aleutian trough, the Aleutian trough retrogrades, the energy gets masked into but sneaks through the western ridge, and as the western ridge responds to the small retrogression of the Aleutian trough by strengthening and sharpening. No notable energy even sneaks out from the Aleutian trough until day 5-6. This area of the pacific is very poorly sampled. In 2022 we hit just right each time with energy diving down and those periods of the Aleutian trough relaxing and allowing the western ridge to sharpen. It wasn’t perfect, but they worked. It’s not far from that pattern either. And that was a -ENSO

 

[Rain Cold]

It’s interesting because typically how a winter storm occurs in a +PNA pattern is a piece of energy breaks off from the Aleutian trough, the Aleutian trough retrogrades, the energy gets masked into but sneaks through the western ridge, and as the western ridge responds to the small retrogression of the Aleutian trough by strengthening and sharpening. No notable energy even sneaks out from the Aleutian trough until day 5-6. This area of the pacific is very poorly sampled. In 2022 we hit just right each time with energy diving down and those periods of the Aleutian trough relaxing and allowing the western ridge to sharpen. It wasn’t perfect, but they worked. It’s not far from that pattern either. And that was a -ENSO

If Grit's AI model images are right, there will be some energy somewhere at some point. If the ridge just sits over the Rockies for two weeks, then I'm not optimistic. But that seems quite unlikely.

The ridge will amplify, deamplify, and migrate around. And there will be energy that seems to show up out of nowhere at some point. As long as we get that kind of cold hanging around for that length of time, we'll see some fantasy storms at some point.

I'm at a 7/10 right now. I mean, how fun is it to even be talking about it at this time of year? Usually, we're punting early December so we can capture late December, only to punt late December and then January then February and finally we cool down BN late March, April, and May to kill severe season.

Given that, I think we're doing well. Quite well. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If Grit's AI model images are right, there will be some energy somewhere at some point. If the ridge just sits over the Rockies for two weeks, then I'm not optimistic. But that seems quite unlikely.

The ridge will amplify, deamplify, and migrate around. And there will be energy that seems to show up out of nowhere at some point. As long as we get that kind of cold hanging around for that length of time, we'll see some fantasy storms at some point.

I'm at a 7/10 right now. I mean, how fun is it to even be talking about it at this time of year? Usually, we're punting early December so we can capture late December, only to punt late December and then January then February and finally we cool down BN late March, April, and May to kill severe season.

Given that, I think we're doing well. Quite well. Happy Thanksgiving!

Just like this

 

[hky1894]

Just want to make a quick post thanking all the great posters we have in this thread. Anytime pattern looks as good as this one it’s a joy to read the analysis here! Feels good to be interested this early in the season. Plenty of time feel like we at least hit normal snowfall this season if pacific cooperates as it is now!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[griteater]

Some of the GFS / GEFS runs have been choppy, but the 12z GEFS matches up with some other modeling ideas for days 10-16 with the Pac Jet backing off and the pattern moving west. I’m not used to seeing such long wavelengths given that it is just early December (wide troughs and ridges) - that’s been a bit odd to me

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We are back

 

[Myfrotho704_]

First light event
EC AI has another after