Pattern December Dud 👀

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It took a week and a half to get the Baja wave to kick east, but we did it!!

View attachment 155051

If the American model had its way, we’d still have a Baja wave from 2019 closed off and hanging out over there

 

[Stevo24]

At this point, odds are probably nowhere will see much of anything. Central to southern VA probably would stand the best chance to see a few snow showers, maybe as far south at the NC/VA border, but odds for anything widespread seem pretty low.

A little confused since the most recent gfs run had a winter storm for the CAD regions?

 

[1300m]

A little confused since the most recent gfs run had a winter storm for the CAD regions?

I'm referring to the 12/2-12/3 shortwave. Something 264 hours out has basically zero odds of panning out as shown.

 

[griteater]

Lots of absolute bangers around 200hrs out on the gefs

Not a bad look

 

[Stevo24]

I'm referring to the 12/2-12/3 shortwave. Something 264 hours out has basically zero odds of panning out as shown.

Always good to see signs of some life a week out than none

 

[KyloG]

GEFS been trying to drag that ridge back into the GOA in the extended only for it to be wrong...so far.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Monday morning is about as brisk as it gets this early in the season

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Cooler trend on the GEFS for the 6-13 day vs the 00z cycle


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[Myfrotho704_]

This is a CAD setup if you didn’t have all that junk around the lakes ruining the descent allowing higher pressure. To much energy around ruining high pressure

 

[Stormdoc]

It’s officially winter when the 18Z starts throwing some teases

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 155061
It’s officially winter when the 18Z starts throwing some teases

That was really really close to a phase and some goodness for a lot.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Stevo24]

View attachment 155062

Very 22ish

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That explains it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS 4 run trend

 

[BullCityWx]

View attachment 155062

 

[Stevo24]

Alright roll that beautiful bean footage and show me them good model runs tonight. Let’s go

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Baja wave speeding up things gonna get interesting realll fast

 

[Ollie Williams]

Baja wave speeding up things gonna get interesting realll fast View attachment 155071

The phase doesn't look like it's going to happen this run, but it's certainly trending that way

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty significant cold air damming event setting up on the GFS. Just after day 7

 

[Stevo24]

Pretty significant cold air damming event setting up on the GFS. Just after day 7 View attachment 155072View attachment 155073

Man that CAD doesn’t look to stretch as far as it normally does.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Pretty significant cold air damming event setting up on the GFS. Just after day 7 View attachment 155072View attachment 155073

Icy

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Pow


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[GoDuke]

Man that CAD doesn’t look to stretch as far as it normally does.

best looking modeled CAD I’ve seen in years.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Baja wave speeding up further is definitely giving us closer solutions. We also managed to keep the areas around the lakes cleaner, which resulted in a damming high to our NE. And given the airmass associated with it, wouldn’t take nothing to crazy

 

[hky1894]

Canadian looks close to a bomb at h5 at 180 hours


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[Wild Weather Monger]

Baja wave speeding up further is definitely giving us closer solutions. We also managed to keep the areas around the lakes cleaner, which resulted in a damming high to our NE. And given the airmass associated with it, wouldn’t take nothing to crazy

The Baja ULL after just missing phasing with the northern branch gets left behind. It'll be interesting to see what the GFS cooks up with it in a few. Round two?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC incoming CAD winter storm

 

[Tarheel1]

We all win! 0z GFS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this would definitely get the job done

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

this would definitely get the job done View attachment 155079View attachment 155080

Major league cad event for sure


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[LukeBarrette]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some pretty major wedges on both OPs

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Is there any chance this can trend to Boston for snow and less wintery precip for NC? @Myfrotho704_

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Some pretty major wedges on both OPs View attachment 155082View attachment 155083

That’s

 

[griteater]

Canadian looks close to a bomb at h5 at 180 hours


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It phased in a little bit of our baja wave

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the 18z GEFS is gonna be solidified even further with a better 00z run. That + tilt ridge lean on top Of the TPV is aiding in more wintry solutions for cold air damming

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woof. Gonna trend to a deep cold CAD real
Quick with this type of trend

 

[SnowwxAtl]

this would definitely get the job done View attachment 155079View attachment 155080

Classic ATL ice storm. Textbook!

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Woof. Gonna trend to a deep cold CAD real
Quick with this type of trend
View attachment 155086

Yeah that TPV lobe south of Hudson Bay is legit, hopefully we can keep that trend going, UL Baja ejection is just as important too


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