"convection on gulf coast will rob moisture"
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
A phrase we haven't had the privilege of saying in 10 years.
Here’s H5. Looks like it really slows down the trailing wave and tilts it far more then any other modeling does. 
Also here’s the China model for anyone interested
Also here’s the China model for anyone interested
Brick Tamland
Member
Love that model, but after seeing it I always want more an hour later.
Parker
Member
Give me this and I’d call it a winter! Really excited for December!
Pretty exceptional agreement on cold
weather bubba
Member
The models have surprised me so far with their consistency for the first week of December. We are within the ten day window now and while details will have to be ironed out, one thing seems for certain, there will be plenty of abnormally cold air. Now lets see if they can focus on some precipitation to go along with the cold air that will be in place.
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
If we didn't have a +AAM, would we be getting this cold pattern and is it stemming from the +EAMT event that triggered this +AAM? Just curious. I personally hope we can maintain it but with enough retrogression in troughing to put most of us in the game often this winter.
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Brent
Member
I'm still thinking about how our met predicted first snow on the 3rd like a week and a half ago and here we are... Like how...
He's a day off at worst right now if the models are right
Not often you get a map like this in Dec/Jan/Feb. I’ll take my chances
Brick Tamland
Member
Now we need above average precip to go with it.
EC ai is now a much more delayed system, rather with energy that dives behind the main trough, causes a coastal about 48 hours later then the previous run
Eh you can have one but not the other haha
Brent
Member
Yeah the met who predicted the 3rd here is now saying "mostly dry"
Although he did note if there is a storm it will snow so there's that... It's always something
Philstorm91
Member
Slightly above precip chances and somewhat below normal temps for this time period? I'll take that for my location in southern Louisiana!
Hello, let’s do some more of that
CMC has a healthy clipper on 12/1 that drops some snow on TN/KY and gets some flakes into NC. GFS similar but way weaker. Icon had the same idea but shears out
Something to watch for first flakes over parts of the region
Something to watch for first flakes over parts of the region
lexxnchloe
Member
LC:
You may have noticed that the forecast models and other guidance are backing away from a "Classic La Nina" winter forecast.Indeed, the first true Arctic air mass of the season is set to sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation starting late next week. That cA intrusion is not the brutal, late January type of chill, but rather a starter course of sorts that will get people in the mood for the holiday season. And, I suspect, creating heating demand increases for 5 to 7 days and ends the trend for warmth shown this autumn.
But as you can figure, any good cold shot is likely to give way to a warming trend. It appears highly likely that the blocking signatures over the Davis Strait and Alaska will break down in Week 3, and not resume until the hammock week between Christmas and New Year's Day. But before you right off the cold for good, consider that a sub-Aleutian vortex is predicted to emerge, and a subtropical jet stream will be present through Mexico into Florida. The latter feature suppresses the Greater Antilles heat ridge. Without a southern branch wind field, the ridge expansion pulse would take the center at 500MB into Florida. Then a Southeast Ridge would emerge, which during an -ENSO event is a "winter destroyer" to the right of the Rocky Mountains. A storm appears likely to take a "Colorado/Trinidad A" path in the last week of December. That system may be the draw to bring the cold air back to the southern and eastern tiers of the nation.
You may have noticed that the forecast models and other guidance are backing away from a "Classic La Nina" winter forecast.Indeed, the first true Arctic air mass of the season is set to sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation starting late next week. That cA intrusion is not the brutal, late January type of chill, but rather a starter course of sorts that will get people in the mood for the holiday season. And, I suspect, creating heating demand increases for 5 to 7 days and ends the trend for warmth shown this autumn.
But as you can figure, any good cold shot is likely to give way to a warming trend. It appears highly likely that the blocking signatures over the Davis Strait and Alaska will break down in Week 3, and not resume until the hammock week between Christmas and New Year's Day. But before you right off the cold for good, consider that a sub-Aleutian vortex is predicted to emerge, and a subtropical jet stream will be present through Mexico into Florida. The latter feature suppresses the Greater Antilles heat ridge. Without a southern branch wind field, the ridge expansion pulse would take the center at 500MB into Florida. Then a Southeast Ridge would emerge, which during an -ENSO event is a "winter destroyer" to the right of the Rocky Mountains. A storm appears likely to take a "Colorado/Trinidad A" path in the last week of December. That system may be the draw to bring the cold air back to the southern and eastern tiers of the nation.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
After accounting for increasing ensemble dispersion w/ range, an even bigger shot of Arctic air comes during the 2nd week of December on the EPS
SimeonNC
Member