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Pattern December Dud 👀

Here is a comparison of the Euro AI and the Euro Ens Mean for Dec 5th. The Euro AI is similar to the GFS (as of 18z run) with how it has a stronger Pac Jet and wants to push the western ridge inland, which shoves our eastern trough farther east. Instead, we need some of that flow to slow down a bit out west so that the western ridge can gain some amplification, allowing a wave to dig into an eastern trough that is not too far east
QCEzsm2.gif
 
not really enthused by anything yet.

the cold is neat; and when it's in abundance as guidance suggests it is easier to stumble backwards into a nuisance event, but i don't see that currently. instead this is reminiscent of october, when we were trying to squeeze water from a stone for any moisture.

there are some pretty maps, but i would advise caution. the last few years all day 6-10 phantom events got squashed by poor trough orientation and this feels no different. I don't remember the last time we were stressing over northwest trends.

i'm filled with oysters and vodka so if there was room for optimism I would put it out there, but so far the long range seems to be enough to kill a lot of bugs and not much else (not complaining about that first part). i will admit it's nice to be prognosticating before thanksgiving
 
00z EC AI sharpened up western ridge while part of the TPV energy held further west, which allowed more northern stream energy to enter and dig further west and initiate cyclogenesis along Arctic front. Being honest, seeing the TPV split apart does raise some alarm bells based on the past few years, but with a mean trough already established to the east, hopefully we don't repeat the same fate. Getting what we want always requires threading the needle, and too consolidated of a TPV with no backside energy would have been cold and dry, we just need the backside energy to orientate N/S and dig, not close off.
ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-1732406400-1733032800-1733032800-40 (1).gif
ecmwf-aifs-all-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1732406400-1733227200-1733464800-20.gif
 
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1300m said:
Agreed there are a number of ways we can score. The dates in and around the 12/22 - 12/24 1989 storm continues to show up in analogs, and that is one of the ways we can score as you mentioned, which is with enough of a consolidated northern stream wave diving in far enough west to amplify and initiate surface cyclogenesis along the Arctic front likely to be along/near the Gulf Coast with or without interaction from additional southern stream energy ejecting eastward.

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I bet if you put Dec 1989’s storm in todays background climate the heavy snow would shift NW in response to a stronger warm conveyor belt and upstream latent heat release from higher mean SSTs.
 
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