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Pattern December Dud 👀

That Christmas Eve forecast would be only the third time I've ever seen a White Chirstmas if it were to verify. In 2010 it started snowing Christmas night in Raleigh and when the storm ended the next day there was an accumulation of around seven inches. In 1989 there was the blizzard that hit the North Carolina coast and in Smithfield where I spent Chritsmas there was probably around two inches of snow that day.
 
LickWx said:
Yep, same for clear windless nights. This is why I don’t take the models temp forecasts on days like this seriously… if the models forecast 65-66 on a day like this , you’ll prolly hit 70.
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Yep. Thats one of the big points early in synoptic with Lackmann, on a day like this in WxChallenge he’s almost always warmer than modeling or even NWS
 
Both the extended GEFS and European Weeklies show RMM MJO entering phase 7 as we enter the new year.

Something is probably going to happen in early to mid January.

Also, I am working on the long-term analysis of ERA-5 OMI MJO (1940 - near present) and NC winter storms and the results are interesting thus far, having gone through all the data through the mid 1980s. Hopefully, I can finish it soon and show some of the results.

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Webberweather53 said:
Both the extended GEFS and European Weeklies show RMM MJO entering phase 7 as we enter the new year.

Something is probably going to happen in early to mid January.

Also, I am working on the long-term analysis of ERA-5 OMI MJO (1940 - near present) and NC winter storms and the results are interesting thus far, having gone through all the data through the mid 1980s. Hopefully, I can finish it soon and show some of the results.

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Quite a few members are showing high amplitude in phases 6-7. Any significance there?
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Quite a few members are showing high amplitude in phases 6-7. Any significance there?
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The higher the amplitude, the more time it is likely to spend in phase 7. The long lived January phase 7 events (like most recently 2022) tend to give us multiple opportunities for snow/ice
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Man the EC AIFS at H5 is a masterclass pattern. Looks like a copy and paste from jan 2014 View attachment 155663
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It looks like a good pattern for loading cold, but it looks kind of dry, verbatim. If we could get a little -NAO action to help us put, that would be nice. I like the -EPO and the western ridge, though it may be a tad too far east. But whatever...it sure beats the alternative usual pattern by a mile.
 
Rain Cold said:
It looks like a good pattern for loading cold, but it looks kind of dry, verbatim. If we could get a little -NAO action to help us put, that would be nice. I like the -EPO and the western ridge, though it may be a tad too far east. But whatever...it sure beats the alternative usual pattern by a mile.
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Agree. It did have ENC snow with that one pacific wave that passed under the big TPV again this run.2EEBABF3-8998-4C6C-9769-9D6E746F58C0.png363EF458-17F2-4AD7-8FFC-144E81B3D3A6.png6F2D7650-48B8-4B00-97A9-B16D24E73268.png
But this progression is a beauty. Slowly start getting the western ridging settled, then it sticks in place and the whole pacific pattern is arranging to a more equator-ward extended pac jet, with slow retrogression and more tendency towards ridging into Alaska, which starts dropping some really cold air and the trop TPV. We have been wanting a pacific like this for years DDAD179D-36EE-4354-B9F1-0C31C7110F48.gif
 
I looked at all the mjo charts from the various models and ensembles, and most have it in either low amp phase 6 or into or towards the cod. Wanted to add that I go to dacular weather mjo to look at them in the same screen
 
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jeremyt said:
Doesn’t count if it’s not at home!
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Oh yeah it's definitely not the same that's for sure

Honestly there were moments in the last week I wasn't even sure it would snow at all 🤣 but really the only reason I even did this trip was because last winter drove me crazy
 
Brent said:
Oh yeah it's definitely not the same that's for sure

Honestly there were moments in the last week I wasn't even sure it would snow at all 🤣 but really the only reason I even did this trip was because last winter drove me crazy
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I honestly think you had it worse than even those of us east of the Apps. We never even sniffed a legitimate chance last winter. You looked like you just missed really good storms in every direction
 
Chazwin said:
I honestly think you had it worse than even those of us east of the Apps. We never even sniffed a legitimate chance last winter. You looked like you just missed really good storms in every direction
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That's why it bothered me so much and for the 2nd year in a row we had a donut hole. Like I never want to hear that phrase ever again

The January storm wasn't a complete fail but it did go from a big storm over 6 inches to barely an inch... And then of course it blew up for Nashville which has worse climo than us

I mean technically I came out here last year but I stayed in Denver and yeah it was not very good all the fun is out here
 
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