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Pattern December Dud đź‘€

@1300m I’m so sad. Dr. Lackmann said he won’t be teaching 443 once they find his replacement after he got promoted. I got to interview him for one of my classes and I see how he gives the NCSU Meteorology department such a great reputation
That is definitely reason to be sad! But, I'll say this, you can always go visit Gary and strike up a conversation about anything weather-related and you're sure to come away with a lesson. I miss the days he would email me and Greg Fishel and we'd be beside ourselves over a big storm potential.
 
@1300m I’m so sad. Dr. Lackmann said he won’t be teaching 443 once they find his replacement after he got promoted. I got to interview him for one of my classes and I see how he gives the NCSU Meteorology department such a great reputation
If you’ve already interviewed him and you have rapport, that’s enough. He’s so loquacious that as long as you have a topic he’s going to enjoy chopping it up with you. He’s a big music fan too if you’re into that and an easy way to get him going. Webb and I were in 443 together and on the walk from class 5th floor Jordan lab he usually had his ear about mjo related nonsense but I’d occasionally get him and ask him about how Wilco sounded at the Ritz in 2002 or something akin to that. In retrospect not the best usage of time lol
 
Low was 14.6 this morning 🥶 After being 4.8 degrees above average in November and having the latest first freeze ever, it’s been a shock to the system with this wicked cold to start December.
I agree. We also had a record late freeze and it was a shock to my system. I was "off" last weekend and the first part of this week until I got used to it. Messing with firewood in the high 20's with wind is tuff.
 
That is definitely reason to be sad! But, I'll say this, you can always go visit Gary and strike up a conversation about anything weather-related and you're sure to come away with a lesson. I miss the days he would email me and Greg Fishel and we'd be beside ourselves over a big storm potential.
I felt very lucky to catch him right before he gives up the 443 class. It was easily my favorite class yet at state. Final on Tuesday!
 
He looks pretty young. Maybe 37 ? He’s a UGA Grad !
He’s a great professor. Not as good as Dave Carroll who is semi-retiring here soon. The department was created because of him. Also is in charge of all of the weather stations in the area. His weather station he installed in Canaan Valley, WV has observed some of the coldest temps on the East Coast!!
 
Boys it’s not just cold. It’s cold cold. I was out walking the property posts at the farm earlier and my hands were hurting. Reminded me a lot of skiing up in the mountains when you need to take a break to head into the ski lodge for 20-30mins. I love it. Great start to winter 10/10
 
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Boys it’s not just cold. It’s cold cold. I was out walking the property posts at the farm earlier and my hands were hurting. Reminded me a lot of skiing up in the mountains when you need to take a break to head into the ski lodge for 20-30mins. I love it. Great start to winter 10/10
I keep hearing it’s over till mid January! Enjoy it while you can! Make that hot cocoa! Build that 🔥! Gonna hit mid 50s up here this weekend! Winter was fun while it lasted!
 
Long range of the last 4 runs of the Euro AI show poleward amplification up thru Alaska. These looks aren't even cold for us (at least initially), but I find them to be mildly interesting because I felt the AI did a good job at sniffing out our current cold pattern

yE8rREk.gif
 
Nope we in the South to Golf year round! Id much rather play Golf Than to play in freezing Cold snow
I’ve played with frozen greens and snow patches. Quit after four holes when a beautiful pitching wedge bounced off the green and kept going forty more yards.
 
Long range of the last 4 runs of the Euro AI show poleward amplification up thru Alaska. These looks aren't even cold for us (at least initially), but I find them to be mildly interesting because I felt the AI did a good job at sniffing out our current cold pattern

yE8rREk.gif
Should help build up cold air in the source region.
 
Haven't seen these in person before. Pretty neat. Not the most perfectly formed example, but it's still pretty cool to see them over top of several peaks in West Jefferson this morning.

View attachment 155607
If you want to see blue skies just come to my house. It’s sunny 334 days a year.
 
Haven't seen these in person before. Pretty neat. Not the most perfectly formed example, but it's still pretty cool to see them over top of several peaks in West Jefferson this morning.

View attachment 155607
You can get some really really solid stacks over the Black Mtns. Distant in this pic but in the center had some decent stacks over thereIMG_7234.jpeg
 
GFS brought a big ol dry CAD into the mix next weekend. Not super cold, but could get a cloudy 40s day out of it.
View attachment 155610
Thats been showing on Euro an Can for several days. In fact some runs show HP parked up there for multiple days , keeping us in a NE wind. No moisture, but it prevents another big warmup after the cool down late this week rockets out after 48 hrs. We will lose it after 3 or so days, cause a lakes low comes and scoots it out.
 
The mid to late month pattern is the worst one you could ask for. Cold rain purgatory.

Yeah it’s not a torch but it’s definitely not going to be cold enough to snow as there’s no “true” cold air in sight & it’ll take a week-10 days or so for real cold to come back, even as the pattern flips back after Christmas.

0/10 for me
 
Another reason why you shouldn’t rush pattern changes.

Even when the circulation pattern flips after this mild spell, it simply takes a lot of time for the deep layer air mass to catch up. You first have to transport the cold air here, then you have to get it to stay, by rebuilding the snow pack you lost in the previous mild spell as an example.

That doesn’t happen immediately most times, even though most like to tell themselves it can.

 
Another reason why you shouldn’t rush pattern changes.

Even when the circulation pattern flips after this mild spell, it simply takes a lot of time for the deep layer air mass to catch up. You first have to transport the cold air here, then you have to get it to stay, by rebuilding the snow pack you lost in the previous mild spell as an example.

That doesn’t happen immediately most times, even though most like to tell themselves it can.


One positive is its Dec 20th and not Jan 20th.
 
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