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Pattern December Dud 👀

Myfrotho704_ said:
This looks like the pattern that has set up in so many recent ninos View attachment 155566
Click to expand...
What am I missing here? I'm sure we'll see above average temps and no snow regardless of what time of winter it is because thats how we roll now, but that doesn't look like recent winters from my memory. I'm used to seeing a huge ridge south of the Aleutians and troughing on the west coast. Yeah there is yellow over us as always but looks like ridging out west and troughing in the east by the isobars. And energy undercutting out west?
 
In Seattle, they get their cold and snow from big ridges to their NW in the Bering Sea. In the UK, same concept, they get their cold and snow from big ridges to their NW in Greenland. So, there are some accounts over in that area that watch the NAO like a hawk and follow various meteorological concepts that can lead to -NAOs. Though not perfect (no one is), this is an account I'd recommend for -AO/-NAO forecast discussion: https://x.com/Met4CastUK


Latest post....https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1864797137227387090

"Mid-Late December Update

Poleward fluxing of -AAM anomalies are continuing on the latest GSDM update which is the reason we're seeing blocky outputs, not yet of the high latitude variety (at least, not with any consistency) but this is exactly what we want to be seeing. Couple this with the MJO transitioning into phase 5/6 and we find ourselves in a situation where the sub tropics & tropics are pointing in the same direction, i.e blocked patterns and a vastly different pattern to the usual westerly dominated pattern we often find ourselves contending with during December.

Interestingly, gravity wave torque is also on a rather steep incline, this often a pre-curser to +EAMT events which can cause significant stratospheric disruption but also dump a shed load of momentum into the atmosphere, namely the Pacific jet.

The GWO continues to orbit into Nino attractor phases, i.e a continued atmospheric & oceanic disconnect with no real sign of this changing for the foreseeable, the atmosphere is decidedly Nino rather than Nina, despite strong easterly trade winds in the Pacific.

What does this mean?
Potential for significant stratospheric disruption in January if we fast forward the clock, mid winter SSW? Maybe. In the shorter term, strong support for mid Atlantic highs to amplify towards the Arctic as -AAM flux continues into the higher latitudes via rossby wave packet transport, deterministic modelling will not have this down. I wouldn't be surprised to see modelling suddenly begin to converge towards colder/blocked northern hemispheric patterns within the next week or so.

The only thing we need to keep an eye on is the tropospheric vortex, how much energy is left over Greenland/Canada? Ideally, we want to see this shift eastwards to allow proper blocking to amplify north.

Steady.."
 
griteater said:
In Seattle, they get their cold and snow from big ridges to their NW in the Bering Sea. In the UK, same concept, they get their cold and snow from big ridges to their NW in Greenland. So, there are some accounts over in that area that watch the NAO like a hawk and follow various meteorological concepts that can lead to -NAOs. Though not perfect (no one is), this is an account I'd recommend for -AO/-NAO forecast discussion: https://x.com/Met4CastUK


Latest post....https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1864797137227387090

"Mid-Late December Update

Poleward fluxing of -AAM anomalies are continuing on the latest GSDM update which is the reason we're seeing blocky outputs, not yet of the high latitude variety (at least, not with any consistency) but this is exactly what we want to be seeing. Couple this with the MJO transitioning into phase 5/6 and we find ourselves in a situation where the sub tropics & tropics are pointing in the same direction, i.e blocked patterns and a vastly different pattern to the usual westerly dominated pattern we often find ourselves contending with during December.

Interestingly, gravity wave torque is also on a rather steep incline, this often a pre-curser to +EAMT events which can cause significant stratospheric disruption but also dump a shed load of momentum into the atmosphere, namely the Pacific jet.

The GWO continues to orbit into Nino attractor phases, i.e a continued atmospheric & oceanic disconnect with no real sign of this changing for the foreseeable, the atmosphere is decidedly Nino rather than Nina, despite strong easterly trade winds in the Pacific.

What does this mean?
Potential for significant stratospheric disruption in January if we fast forward the clock, mid winter SSW? Maybe. In the shorter term, strong support for mid Atlantic highs to amplify towards the Arctic as -AAM flux continues into the higher latitudes via rossby wave packet transport, deterministic modelling will not have this down. I wouldn't be surprised to see modelling suddenly begin to converge towards colder/blocked northern hemispheric patterns within the next week or so.

The only thing we need to keep an eye on is the tropospheric vortex, how much energy is left over Greenland/Canada? Ideally, we want to see this shift eastwards to allow proper blocking to amplify north.

Steady.."
Click to expand...
Griteater, do these people or group have a good track record?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
What am I missing here? I'm sure we'll see above average temps and no snow regardless of what time of winter it is because thats how we roll now, but that doesn't look like recent winters from my memory. I'm used to seeing a huge ridge south of the Aleutians and troughing on the west coast. Yeah there is yellow over us as always but looks like ridging out west and troughing in the east by the isobars. And energy undercutting out west?
Click to expand...
Last winter we had this look. It flooded us with mild pacific air, in dec and early jan. But it’s worth noting this look happened in early January, before that cold pattern occured (the pattern weakened the strat PV significantly) sort of similar like we might have coming up (Bering sea vortex signal)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Last winter we had this look. It flooded us with mild pacific air, in dec and early jan. But it’s worth noting this look happened in early January, before that cold pattern occured (the pattern weakened the strat PV significantly) sort of similar like we might have coming up (Bering sea vortex signal)
Click to expand...

I have had a couple people out here talking about the end of the month might be more interesting but it's just so far away right now it's hard to trust
 
Balmy 4 Degrees on top of Beech Mountain and looks like a stiff little breeze to boot per the webcam. Still looks like if you want to get a round of golf in over The Hollidays, need to make Hay before Christmas Day and not after. Still early but the warmest part of December for us should be M-W next week and 17th-23rdish. Problem this week is it will be wet, thankfully.

I'm 90%+ confident December will end up Below Normal for Greensboro. Despite some warm days mixed in, Greensboro will be a good 11-13 Below Normal come this Sunday with only 3/4 of the month left to make up the lost ground.
 
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