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Pattern December Dud 👀

Chazwin said:
Sunday afternoon will probably be perfect for golf in our area. Mid 60s and sunnny. The rest of the warm up looks wet
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Probably gonna go to Stonebridge or Eagle Chase! Sucking during the warmer days is less miserable than sucking and freezing!
 
BullCityWx said:
I should've clarified - the wider turn through the cold areas for us.
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Yeah it seems like the farther away from the COD, the stronger the pulse and more influential it is on the pattern. Of course, we caveat with the "it's just one piece of the puzzle" disclaimer.
 
KyloG said:
Wasn't expecting a big gorilla of a NPac low week 2...but EPS somewhat agrees. Nice if that ends up being a staple in January...assuming it's not to far east.

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The EPS looks like it maaaaayyyy want to get a western ridge going with a trough in the east? You have to really squint though. The N pacific low needs to back up some...we'll see.

I started this season VERY pessimistic about cold/snow chances (still leaning that way hard). But we've had a solid 1-2 weeks of cool/cold air and a novelty snowy clipper for some, so considering it's December, that ain't bad. I'll take a few weeks of warm. Hopefully Webb's +TNH, TMNT, NSYNC, ACC, SEC will bring back some high latitude blocking in January.

1733498087964.png
 
BullCityWx said:
I am admittedly a novice at the MJO graphs - I imagine the wider turn is what you want, right? You dont want it hugging the circle of death.
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You want it out of 4-5-6. That's by far and away the biggest thing. Especially 5. How I frigging hate 5. You want to predict warm spells a month in advance? That's your secret formula. I've done it many times and people are amazed. Why can't snow be that easy?
 
1300m said:
You want it out of 4-5-6. That's by far and away the biggest thing. Especially 5. How I frigging hate 5. You want to predict warm spells a month in advance? That's your secret formula. I've done it many times and people are amazed. Why can't snow be that easy?
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Yeah, 7-8-1 is our money zone, right?
 
BullCityWx said:
Yeah, 7-8-1 is our money zone, right?
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Yes. Both @Webberweather53 and I have individually found that January phase 7 (and 8 not far behind) is as close to a MJO money phase as we have for getting frozen precipitation in NC. These plots done by Allan Huffman are a good reference as well to see how it varies by month and by strength.

Webberweather53 said:
RMM MJO Phase 7-8 in cold ENSO is usually the hot spot for getting a winter storm in NC.

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January phase 7 in general is the true hot spot for getting a winter storm in NC, with a 1 in 6 chance per day of seeing snow/ice. This is about 3x higher than climo
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P.S. and looking at the H5 composite of phase 7 January, it's no great mystery why that is.
JanuaryPhase7All500mb.gif
 
SnowNiner said:
The EPS looks like it maaaaayyyy want to get a western ridge going with a trough in the east? You have to really squint though. The N pacific low needs to back up some...we'll see.

I started this season VERY pessimistic about cold/snow chances (still leaning that way hard). But we've had a solid 1-2 weeks of cool/cold air and a novelty snowy clipper for some, so considering it's December, that ain't bad. I'll take a few weeks of warm. Hopefully Webb's +TNH, TMNT, NSYNC, ACC, SEC will bring back some high latitude blocking in January.

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I know i made a comment about 11/12 earlier but that was more of a joke. At this point in time this isn't a bad look if the east Asian okhotsk low takes over
 
1300m said:
Yes. Both @Webberweather53 and I have individually found that January phase 7 (and 8 not far behind) is as close to a MJO money phase as we have for getting frozen precipitation in NC. These plots done by Allan Huffman are a good reference as well to see how it varies by month and by strength.


P.S. and looking at the H5 composite of phase 7 January, it's no great mystery why that is.
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Does it matter if it takes a wider or a tighter turn through the segment?
 
BullCityWx said:
Does it matter if it takes a wider or a tighter turn through the segment?
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@Webberweather53 is certainly more of the expert on this subject matter, but the wider turn as you say is indicative of a stronger wave, which would likely stay in that location for longer. That said, the signal is virtually the same for the higher amplitude MJO events ("wider turn") compared to including all in the composite analyses (ignoring the amplitude of the wave and looking at all phase 7 January MJO events) Allan did (I'd need to see how many years of < 1 were included to figure out how significant this is, because if there aren't many years included it could be why the composite anomaly looks so similar).

JanuaryPhase7All500mb (1).gifJanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’ll take a while to recover from this garbage.

Even once the pattern flips back for the better, it’ll take at least a week to 10 days for true Arctic air (from Siberia) to get advected back into the CONUS.

Kicking the can til early January.

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This is the classic cold rain purgatory pattern.

Not cold enough to snow and nowhere near warm enough to get good severe weather chances except for maybe the gulf coast.

Yuck 🤢
 
Last half of Dec last year was similar to what ensembles are hinting at and then it was very cold in the heart of the country in January. Tenn/AL/MS had a couple of good winter events if I recall.

compday.EYdMmX1dZC.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4868800.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’ll take a while to recover from this garbage.

Even once the pattern flips back for the better, it’ll take at least a week to 10 days for true Arctic air (from Siberia) to get advected back into the CONUS.

Kicking the can til early January.

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I was called a clown and a weenie for saying a couple of weeks ago that I hope we aren't kicking the can down the road and wasting the cold when the models showed a couple of storms, but they always kept them past 10 days.
 
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Figured y'all might want to see what we are talking about in Synoptic Meteorology. We are doing a mini-unit on CAD!!! One of the only met schools that goes over CAD. Our professor used Feb 16, 2003 as an example. He also used one of the sleet/snow maps that NC State makes for North Carolina from this event. Im sure one of y'all could post that in here as a response to this. Seriously such a fun class!
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 155594
Figured y'all might want to see what we are talking about in Synoptic Meteorology. We are doing a mini-unit on CAD!!! One of the only met schools that goes over CAD. Our professor used Feb 16, 2003 as an example. He also used one of the sleet/snow maps that NC State makes for North Carolina from this event. Im sure one of y'all could post that in here as a response to this. Seriously such a fun class!
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Is this 443 with Dr. Lackmann?
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 155594
Figured y'all might want to see what we are talking about in Synoptic Meteorology. We are doing a mini-unit on CAD!!! One of the only met schools that goes over CAD. Our professor used Feb 16, 2003 as an example. He also used one of the sleet/snow maps that NC State makes for North Carolina from this event. Im sure one of y'all could post that in here as a response to this. Seriously such a fun class!
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That was supposed to be the second horrific ice storm in that winter and CAD saved the day with sleet
 
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