.3 this morning what a model bust
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Pattern December Dud đź‘€
- Thread starter SD
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I definitely want/hope the euro AI is correct, but the GFS is showing a warm pattern for the whole North American continent. This would take some time to cool down.
6z GFS Christmas Eve:
6z GFS Christmas Eve:
NCSNOW
Member
EURO is right there with Canadian for onset ice late this weekend. Nice 1047HP will suffice.
Depends on the wind. It dries ground up pretty quick if we get winds like we have had last couple of winters. Definitely helps us when trying to work
NCSNOW
Member
NWS only forecasted a tenth of an inch:
Most Gauges western Piedmont .30+
This one in Greensboro about to top half inch mark
Most Gauges western Piedmont .30+
This one in Greensboro about to top half inch mark
| SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK AT US 220 AT GREENSBORO, NC | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 2024-12-09 07:55:00 |
1.28” so far.
tazaroo
Member
.55 at my house overnight.
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AI might be fixing to throw us a big one
RAH is not saying much (details), except to confirm the possibility of CAD for the weekend.
<<<last paragraph of long-range discussion>>>>>
"Our next system appears to be associated with a shortwave trough
situated near the central Plains Sat and the sliding generally
eastward with time over the weekend. Although the 00z GFS and Euro
are in relatively good agreement, this appears to be exception to
the rule as EOF H5 patterns show a considerable amount of variance
related to timing as well as amplitude of this feature, resulting in
low-forecast confidence on this next system. Depending on the
timing, given the initial favorable location of the surface high over
the Northeast, a classic or perhaps hybrid CAD pattern may develop
over the weekend into early next week."
Us eastern Piedmont folks don't like hybrid CAD setups. Not enough cold air. For the western Piedmont / foothills areas, this may work (as shown on the Canadian). Maybe we can trend that NE high westward some and build the classic (strong) CAD setup.
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^^The euro would be a close call. Looks like a race with the cold air and moisture.
Brent
Member
Still some snowy members on the EPS around the 19th
No sign of a big torch
No sign of a big torch
In the big picture, the Euro AI continues to want to favor enhanced western ridging compared to the standard modeling
I hope this model becomes useful & reliable. I get the hunch that it has a cold bias though.
Meanwhile, some in our region could see some moods flakes tomorrow night into Wednesday AM.
The latest GFS ensemble runs (to me) would support the euro AI.
PNA is staying solidly positive (good), NAO is going solidly positive (not good), and AO will go solidly negative(good) in 7-10 days.
PNA is staying solidly positive (good), NAO is going solidly positive (not good), and AO will go solidly negative(good) in 7-10 days.
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.19" here today. Looks like Tuesday is the rain maker day.
NCSNOW
Member
The High off the 6z Euro off pivotal on 12/22 is 28 degrees
I just find it remotely interesting being that it is the new kid on the block with higher validation scores, and I thought it performed pretty well in the long range with sniffing out our recent cold period
Here are the last 4 runs of the Euro AI, 5-day average for Dec 18-23
Here is the 00z Euro AI Ensemble Mean for Dec 20
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OP Euro was as close as you can get on 12/20
Interesting that the AI is slowly backing the GOA bomb around D10 west while the overnight runs and now the 12z GFS were stronger farther EI just find it remotely interesting being that it is the new kid on the block with higher validation scores, and I thought it performed pretty well in the long range with sniffing out our recent cold period
Here are the last 4 runs of the Euro AI, 5-day average for Dec 18-23
Here is the 00z Euro AI Ensemble Mean for Dec 20
ForsythSnow
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We can't even get our torches right!
Now if we can get that trough further down out west and the ridge to spike we're in business.
The last image in that gif has a pretty spikey ridge with energy undercutting. You get a legit NAO to pop and we're open for biz. Looks like some ridging in that area showing up, but I don't know if it's enough to help very much yet.
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Euros got you
CNCsnwfan1210
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If that upper low didn't get stuck in the SW that would have been something
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Nice bump back west on the Canadian ens later in the run
Ware slo 
Brent
Member
Well our usually wrong met is predicting 64/37 for Christmas so there's that
Still quite a few snowy EPS members around the 19th-20th
Still quite a few snowy EPS members around the 19th-20th
EC AIFS has been a snow printer for the SE so far… but it liking this timeframe is a understatement 
So hard not to look....
...visions of Dec. 2010 and that one wasn't figured out (even the major H5 players) until < 24 hours out.
...visions of Dec. 2010 and that one wasn't figured out (even the major H5 players) until < 24 hours out.
What will not happen for $1000 Alex!