Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[SnowNiner]

The last 3 +enso....

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Yeah, enso seems to have little to do with our problem the last 8-10 years or so (I'd argue 2014 was the last great winter for mby). Nino or nina, western troughing and the SE ridge prevails. And we're relegated to hoping for Miller B CAD miracles when a 50/50 forms. I think it's the warming of the ocean at the equator in the bad phases of the mjo/Indian ocean/maritimes that's the problem. Puts the forcing in the wrong spot for us and we get Aleutian ridges.

Nothing really to say about the long term. It's just more of the same, and I hope it gets switched up out in the pacific sometime in January.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Like I said earlier, this pattern is CAD purgatory. You gotta take what you can get, because relative to the pattern we’re in, that’s probably about the best we can do

no yeah I take it over warm personally, I was just hoping it would have prettier colors closer to my house honestly

 

[RBR71]

29 almost midday, full sun.... I'll take a little warmup, I'm freezing my baguettes off

 

[Rain Cold]

ough we have different definitions of nice


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Model underestimating the cold.

 

[NBAcentel]

Just barfed in my mouth. Here comes a wedge out the blue in the medium range

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

11.7 Here in Mooresville off Linwood Road this AM.

Currently - 27.3 at Noon…..in December


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[ChrisAMB]

30.2 at noon. The dry air is great for the lungs.

 

[Webberweather53]

-NAO onset is consistently trending earlier and stronger on the models. We’re trying…

 

[NBAcentel]

-NAO onset is consistently trending earlier and stronger on the models. We’re trying…

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wonder what winter storms we’ve had with -PNA/-WPO/-NAO, I’m sure they are messy and likely CAD driven

 

[Avalanche]

That was a cool front passage @Avalanche

Loved it!! Seems like things have been stale for a while so it was exciting to see the front usher in

 

[jackendrickwx]

noon metar roundup. 95% of the carolinas at or below freezing at lunchtime

 

[Webberweather53]

wonder what winter storms we’ve had with -PNA/-WPO/-NAO, I’m sure they are messy and likely CAD driven

Quick database search for -PNA/-WPO/-NAO/+EPO in Dec-Jan I pulled up a storm from Christmas Day in 1948 and the other was an ice storm in late January 1969.

 

[Chazwin]

Quick database search for -PNA/-WPO/-NAO/+EPO in Dec-Jan I pulled up a storm from Christmas Day in 1948 and the other was an ice storm in late January 1969.

Wasn’t February 2004 as well? I know it had a -PNA/-NAO

 

[Webberweather53]

Wasn’t February 2004 as well? I know it had a -PNA/-NAO

Nope it didn’t show up. Most recent event I saw from any point in the year was from March 2005

 

[MichaelJ]

I must be in a cold pocket, it was 9 this morning for the low. Long range, it could be ugly for those wanting cold/snow in the SE (excluding the mountains) until mid-late January

 

[Stevo24]

It’s crazy to keep logging on here and seeing no hope. This is the worst iv seen it in a while.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

It’s crazy to keep logging on here and seeing no hope. This is the worst iv seen it in a while.

Don't worry. It will get cold again in March.

 

[weather bubba]

Alan Huffman, this morning said he believes we will be warm until at least Mid January.
Just thought I’d pass along some more depressing news. Have a great day everyone!


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While this is not encouraging for the next thirty days or so if Allan's statement ends up being correct, remember 2000 and the warm weather we in North Carolina had for the first part of that January. Things changed during the second part of the month and we got the record snowstorm in the last week of January that so many of us remember.

 

[NBAcentel]

Wasn’t February 2004 as well? I know it had a -PNA/-NAO

Feb 2004 was more so of a cutoff traveling under a Canadian omega block/-NAO keeping a suppressed track and a 50/50 low up in the NE, more of a -NAO/-AO dominated pattern, WPO looks positive. Looked very Nino esque. Probably gotta wait a while for something like this to show up

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Roan Mountain courtesy of Thomas Mabry

 

[iGRXY]

Just barfed in my mouth. Here comes a wedge out the blue in the medium range View attachment 179024View attachment 179025

Ask Twister if I just have CAD on the brain now lol. This is like clockwork every year. Not cold enough for frozen 9/10x, but cold enough for 35-45 degree rain and clouds

 

[iGRXY]

wonder what winter storms we’ve had with -PNA/-WPO/-NAO, I’m sure they are messy and likely CAD driven

Webber has said in the past that -PNA/-NAO combo is CAD, mixed bag messy storms.

 

[Webberweather53]

The sensible weather over the holidays looks like a big roller coaster ride on most models over the Carolinas.

I’m pretty confident we won’t see much snow or ice, but daytime temperatures could waffle between the mid-upper 40s and 70s depending on the placement and timing of the 50-50 low and upstream Southern Plains ridge.

 

[Chazwin]

Webber has said in the past that -PNA/-NAO combo is CAD, mixed bag messy storms.

That does make sense when generally Miller B storms have a -PNA/-NAO combo. Miller B storms generally have a mixed bag

 

[jackendrickwx]

not looking super impressive on QPF this side of the Apps with our frontal rain thursday night into friday morning. shocked! of course, the great swnc rainforest looks to cash





quietly dry, but not dry enough to make much noise lately
30-day anomaly


90-day

 

[GaWx]

wonder what winter storms we’ve had with -PNA/-WPO/-NAO, I’m sure they are messy and likely CAD driven

12/26/2010 was the only 6”+ storm at RDU since 1950 that qualifies as it had:

- weak -PNA (-0.3)
- -WPO (-1.4)
- moderate -NAO (-0.8)

It also had:
- +EPO (+1.2)
- strong -AO (-2.9)
- moderate MJO 5
- La Nina

 

[NBAcentel]

Thing of beauty, 70s would feed families

 

[GaWx]

Wasn’t February 2004 as well? I know it had a -PNA/-NAO

I count Feb of 2004 as neutral PNA (-0.1) as opposed to -PNA

 

[Webberweather53]

Parade of cold highs come out of Canada into New England between the 22nd & 28th on the EPS

I.e. CAD purgatory; cold enough to get on your nerves, but not cold enough to actually do anything

 

[GaWx]

Most negative PNA for 6”+ RDU storms since 1950 (based on research I did previously):

-0.8: 3/2-3/1960
-0.5: 3/9/1960
-0.3: 12/26/2010

These had -0.1 PNA, which I consider neutral PNA:
-0.1: 2/18-19/1979
-0.1: 2/26-27/2004
-0.1: 1/17/2018

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[FortMillSCWx]

ough we have different definitions of nice


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Probably very selfish but I will be here (X) from the 22nd-27th (Just south of Pennsylvania)....so I dare say bring it. For anyone who lives in this area, it's dark early. Constant clouds and CAD. Just yuck. But, if we can squeeze that out, I won't argue.

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 179037

That pattern just screams misery. I’ll pass

 

[KyloG]

What about the last few modoki Nino years

2 groups....ones that suck and ones that are good.

But..how do we know we are getting a modoki next year.

 

[GaWx]

Now I’ll add GSO 6”+ storms since 1950 that weren’t also at RDU to the RDU 6”+ list that I already showed the PNAs for to list what the most negative PNA of all of these was:

6”+ storms since 1950 at GSO and/or RDU: most negative PNA (**note that only 12 of the 37 storms had PNA<0**):

-1.1: 2/12-13/2014 (moderate +NAO)
-0.8: 1/22-24/1954 (moderate +NAO)
-0.8: 3/2-3/1960 (neutral NAO)
-0.7: 1/6-7/2017 (moderate +NAO)
-0.5: 3/9/1960 (neutral NAO)
-0.3: 12/26/2010 (moderate -NAO)
-0.3: 2/24-26/2015 (strong +NAO)
-0.2: 2/27/1987 (weak -NAO)
-0.1: 2/18-19/1979 (neutral NAO)
-0.1: 1/12-14/1982 (neutral NAO)
-0.1: 2/26-27/2004 (weak -NAO)
-0.1: 1/17/2018 (strong +NAO)

Note that of these 12 big RDU/GSO storms since 1950 with PNA<0, almost half (5) had a moderate or strong +NAO, only 25% (3) had a -NAO, and none had a strong -NAO.

 

[KyloG]

Now I’ll add GSO 6”+ storms since 1950 that weren’t also at RDU to the RDU 6”+ list that I already showed the PNAs for to list what the most negative PNA of all of these was:

6”+ storms since 1950 at GSO and/or RDU: most negative PNA:

-1.1: 2/12-13/2014 (moderate +NAO)
-0.8: 1/22-24/1954 (moderate +NAO)
-0.8: 3/2-3/1960 (neutral NAO)
-0.7: 1/6-7/2017 (moderate +NAO)
-0.5: 3/9/1960 (neutral NAO)
-0.3: 12/26/2010 (moderate -NAO)
-0.3: 2/24-26/2015 (strong +NAO)
-0.2: 2/27/1987 (weak -NAO)
-0.1: 2/18-19/1979 (neutral NAO)
-0.1: 1/12-14/1982 (neutral NAO)
-0.1: 2/26-27/2004 (weak -NAO)
-0.1: 1/17/2018 (strong +NAO)

Note that of these 12 big RDU/GSO storms since 1950 with PNA<0, almost half (5) had a moderate or strong +NAO, only 25% (3) had a -NAO, and none had a strong -NAO.

Few of the dates above thrown in...need the aleutian ridge to build poleward...that would change the sentiment.

It's what I am hoping for in early/mid January. Fingers crossed...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Watch this death ridge set up shop and rock everybody to sleep then we miller B into a setup with low level cold anchored by a 1042 high and drop an ice storm for the ages. We’ve been overdue for the past 15 years.

 

[Tarheel1]

Watch this death ridge set up shop and rock everybody to sleep then we miller B into a setup with low level cold anchored by a 1042 high and drop an ice storm for the ages. We’ve been overdue for the past 15 years.

Don’t worry, winter 26/27 gonna be yalls winter! Currently 27 here, full sun, melting everywhere

 

[NBAcentel]

Leaning on the warmer side since it’s more of the majority but the spreads is rather large

 

[Prestige Worldwide]