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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 šŸŽ„ ā„ļø

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Watch this death ridge set up shop and rock everybody to sleep then we miller B into a setup with low level cold anchored by a 1042 high and drop an ice storm for the ages. Weā€™ve been overdue for the past 15 years.
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I wish. Yall underestimate how awesome mixed bag events are if there's enough QPF. Gimme 6-8" SN / 1" Sleet / 1/4 - 1/2" ICE on top and 5 days after at 35 and below all day over 8-12" Of pure snow and then its in the 40s -50s and gone 48hrs later. Hell even 10-12" of snow pure isnt as good as 8" / 1"IP? 1/4" ice
 
GaWx said:
Most negative PNA for 6ā€+ RDU storms since 1950 (based on research I did previously):

-0.8: 3/2-3/1960
-0.5: 3/9/1960
-0.3: 12/26/2010

These had -0.1 PNA, which I consider neutral PNA:
-0.1: 2/18-19/1979
-0.1: 2/26-27/2004
-0.1: 1/17/2018
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Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
1960-03-020.png
Then adding on the next three:
1960-03-020.png
 
Question: is the AIGFS gonna be as bad as the GFS?(not possible i wouldn't think) What's everyone's opinion?
It's showing some lame wedging as @webhas eluded to. But still mostly above average temps through NYE...sad
While the Euro AI is really close temp wise as well..they are alot closer to each other than their operational for sure
 
Oconeexman said:
Question: is the AIGFS gonna be as bad as the GFS?(not possible i wouldn't think) What's everyone's opinion?
It's showing some lame wedding as @webhas eluded to. But still mostly above average temps through NYE...sad
While the Euro AI is really close temp wise as well..they are alot closer to each other than their operational for sure
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Considering it's AI, should be far better then the GFS.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
View attachment 179045
Then adding on the next three:
View attachment 179046
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Whatā€™s interesting with those is that the ridge is centered over the Rockies and Southern Plains which looks to be the case the next couple weeks.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
View attachment 179045
Then adding on the next three:
View attachment 179046
Click to expand...
Very Nino-esque looks with undercutting, something we arenā€™t seeing showing up anytime soon
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
View attachment 179045
Then adding on the next three:
View attachment 179046
Click to expand...
Also notice to most of these storms were late season events, when wavelengths are shorter and itā€™s easier to have a amplified pattern/undercutting and cutoff lows, we are working against typical early-mid season long wavelengths. Best bet is what @KyloG mentioned going poleward with the Aleutian ridge and bridging it to a -NAO block, and trying our luck with that, because thereā€™s nothing really there right now to change up the pacific, later on it might be easier to change it up if we get the pacific warm pool to migrate eastward
 
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