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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

GaWx said:
Most negative PNA for 6”+ RDU storms since 1950 (based on research I did previously):

-0.8: 3/2-3/1960
-0.5: 3/9/1960
-0.3: 12/26/2010

These had -0.1 PNA, which I consider neutral PNA:
-0.1: 2/18-19/1979
-0.1: 2/26-27/2004
-0.1: 1/17/2018
Click to expand...
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
1960-03-020.png
Then adding on the next three:
1960-03-020.png
 
Question: is the AIGFS gonna be as bad as the GFS?(not possible i wouldn't think) What's everyone's opinion?
It's showing some lame wedging as @webhas eluded to. But still mostly above average temps through NYE...sad
While the Euro AI is really close temp wise as well..they are alot closer to each other than their operational for sure
 
Oconeexman said:
Question: is the AIGFS gonna be as bad as the GFS?(not possible i wouldn't think) What's everyone's opinion?
It's showing some lame wedding as @webhas eluded to. But still mostly above average temps through NYE...sad
While the Euro AI is really close temp wise as well..they are alot closer to each other than their operational for sure
Click to expand...
Considering it's AI, should be far better then the GFS.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
View attachment 179045
Then adding on the next three:
View attachment 179046
Click to expand...
What’s interesting with those is that the ridge is centered over the Rockies and Southern Plains which looks to be the case the next couple weeks.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
View attachment 179045
Then adding on the next three:
View attachment 179046
Click to expand...
Very Nino-esque looks with undercutting, something we aren’t seeing showing up anytime soon
 
730pm and already down to 24. Dew point is up to 16 so we might be flirting with MEGAFROST territory.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even then, you can see how you snow with that look - nice western ridge. I think the only reason the PNA registered as negative is because of the trough in the NW US. However, I think that's just a second low that resulted from an active pattern.
View attachment 179045
Then adding on the next three:
View attachment 179046
Click to expand...
Also notice to most of these storms were late season events, when wavelengths are shorter and it’s easier to have a amplified pattern/undercutting and cutoff lows, we are working against typical early-mid season long wavelengths. Best bet is what @KyloG mentioned going poleward with the Aleutian ridge and bridging it to a -NAO block, and trying our luck with that, because there’s nothing really there right now to change up the pacific, later on it might be easier to change it up if we get the pacific warm pool to migrate eastward
 
Aleutian Ridges, on average, last 32.6 days. They almost always cause the PV to get disturbed, especially early events. I would think this one would be considered early. The "season" for them in the study I read was November 1st until March 10th. 33 of 35 of the early events between the 70s and 2010s saw the PV split or get highly perturbed around 26 days on average, after the AH formed.

We roasted from December 8th or so, 1984, until January 3rd or so, 1984 with the Aleutian high in place. That verification was basically what we see on models now. 15 to 20f AN, with 70s here a week after early December 20s and single digits with light snow as the AH was establishing itself, it was also in the 70s here after New Years (my normal for late December is around 46) .

The PV was split on December 30th, 1984, 27 days into the Aleutian ridge pattern. A week later it broke down, and cold returned to the East. It's total duration was 31 days.
 
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John1122 said:
Aleutian Ridges, on average, last 32.6 days. They almost always cause the PV to get disturbed, especially early events. I would think this one would be considered early. The "season" for them in the study I read was November 1st until March 10th. 33 of 35 of the early events between the 70s and 2010s saw the PV split or get highly perturbed around 26 days on average, after the AH formed.

We roasted from December 8th or so, 1984, until January 3rd or so, 1984 with the Aleutian high in place. That verification was basically what we see on models now. 15 to 20f AN, with 70s here a week after early December 20s and single digits with light snow as the AH was establishing itself, it was also in the 70s here after New Years (my normal for late December is around 46) .

The PV was split on December 30th, 1984, 27 days into the Aleutian ridge pattern. A week later it broke down, and cold returned to the East. It's total duration was
Click to expand...
Good find. Looks like much of the 2nd half of that dec had an Aleutian ridge/-PNA/-WPO/+SCAND with a +NAO. Looks like a pacific jet extension resulted in the flip, along with a +SCAND —> -NAO retrogression, both occurring at the same time. End result was a +PNA/-NAO ridge bridge. Looks like in NC no storms occured with the pattern but that’s a good look. The -NAO in this instance could good be a good analog but not sure if we get another pacific jet extension with mountain torque in east asia not cooperative. But if we can see a +EAMT event finally show up with all the +AAM in the background as well, then something like this isn’t to far fetched. At the moment though, we are looking at the Atlantic side for help. IMG_0795.gifIMG_0796.gifIMG_0797.gif
 
If the Models where supreme court Justices. It's a unanimous decision this morning our Chestnuts want be roasting by the fire Christmas Eve & Day. They will be on Fire.
My advice is don't look and maybe at 12z it will look different. Warm 70 degree temps don't do me any favors Christmas eve/day as most Golf courses are closed. Dec 26, we'll you just take what the wx offers and go tee em up, if it want send us any cold and snow. Ole can't beat em, so go join them mantra.
 
John1122 said:
Aleutian Ridges, on average, last 32.6 days. They almost always cause the PV to get disturbed, especially early events. I would think this one would be considered early. The "season" for them in the study I read was November 1st until March 10th. 33 of 35 of the early events between the 70s and 2010s saw the PV split or get highly perturbed around 26 days on average, after the AH formed.

We roasted from December 8th or so, 1984, until January 3rd or so, 1984 with the Aleutian high in place. That verification was basically what we see on models now. 15 to 20f AN, with 70s here a week after early December 20s and single digits with light snow as the AH was establishing itself, it was also in the 70s here after New Years (my normal for late December is around 46) .

The PV was split on December 30th, 1984, 27 days into the Aleutian ridge pattern. A week later it broke down, and cold returned to the East. It's total duration was
Click to expand...
Yea, this is how I remembered it as well. The last five days of Dec-1984, Memphis recorded highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's, then flipped cold on Jan-3, 1985 and we received 8.1" of snow. This was one of my favorite snow events that month as we received a total of 21" for the season. Many southeast cities had record lows later that month.
 
Snowman63 said:
Yea, this is how I remembered it as well. The last five days of Dec-1984, Memphis recorded highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's, then flipped cold on Jan-3, 1985 and we received 8.1" of snow. This was one of my favorite snow events that month as we received a total of 21" for the season. Many southeast cities had record lows later that month.
Click to expand...

That was the year it was so cold in DC the inauguration was indoors

And it was way colder than this years around the time of the Gulf snow
 
Snowman63 said:
Yea, this is how I remembered it as well. The last five days of Dec-1984, Memphis recorded highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's, then flipped cold on Jan-3, 1985 and we received 8.1" of snow. This was one of my favorite snow events that month as we received a total of 21" for the season. Many southeast cities had record lows later that month.
Click to expand...
Our all time coldest temperature at the Tri-Cities Airpirf here in Northeast Tennessee was January 21st, 1985. We hit -21. All time record low.
 
Crazy to think Jan 85 was 41 years ago. I’m almost positive that was the year that Bay St. Louis, MS bay froze solid. It’s a mostly brackish shallow bay. I think my mom has pictures of me as a 2 year old walking out on the solid ice bay, quite a ways out from the sea wall.
 
NCSNOW said:
If the Models where supreme court Justices. It's a unanimous decision this morning our Chestnuts want be roasting by the fire Christmas Eve & Day. They will be on Fire.
My advice is don't look and maybe at 12z it will look different. Warm 70 degree temps don't do me any favors Christmas eve/day as most Golf courses are closed. Dec 26, we'll you just take what the wx offers and go tee em up, if it want send us any cold and snow. Ole can't beat em, so go join them mantra.
Click to expand...
We open the clubhouse and cart shed long enough for our group to get started and close the gate behind us..lol
Of course most of us are on the board.
I'm looking forward to playing without long johns on
 
Until we see a breakdown of the Aleutian ridge, CAD is the best we can hope for which normally means ice around here and that is even no guaranteed outcome. If we stay warm through March (which is very possible), you can bet your house we will have a cold and dry April and May
 
Our airport had a low of 25 for the 2nd morning in a row. My lowest was likely ~30 vs 26.6 yesterday. But the freeze last night was radiational rather than advective/windy with a much longer duration of ~9 hours.
 
MichaelJ said:
Until we see a breakdown of the Aleutian ridge, CAD is the best we can hope for which normally means ice around here and that is even no guaranteed outcome. If we stay warm through March (which is very possible), you can bet your house we will have a cold and dry April and May
Click to expand...

I already joked on someone's page well probably get buried in April haha
 
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