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Pattern December Discussion

Re: December Discussion

12z gfs has light ice for cad regions Saturday . high is moving offshore , timing will be the issue

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Re: December Discussion

gfs is beating back the ridge in the medium range thanks to a bigger cold push
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it's hell bent on breaking off a piece of the trough and leaving it behind
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just some slight differences in the 12z gfs vs 06z for next week. 12z gfs H5 pattern is much closer to the 06z gfs para

12z gfs
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06z para
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06z gfs
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Re: December Discussion

this is the 12z gfs christmas eve look
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which is the exact same look the gfs had for Mid week next week which now kooks like this
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very changeable pattern next week with multiple systems, certainly no torch

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Crazy how consistent (rather it happens or not) the models favor ice over snow for our winter storms that fail to happen. Don't like this pattern at all think it will take a major pattern change to fix this. Anything before Christmas just doesn't scream snow to me at all!
 
WilkesboroDude link said:
Crazy how consistent (rather it happens or not) the models favor ice over snow for our winter storms that fail to happen. Don't like this pattern at all think it will take a major pattern change to fix this. Anything before Christmas just doesn't scream snow to me at all!
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good thing we realistically don't expect snow and ice in December. This actually isn't a completely horribpe pattern . it's serviceable for your area and certainly not a torch pattern

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So the Euro, Canadian, and GFS are all showing something to watch for next Monday/Tuesday now?
 
Supershow link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg1516#msg1516 date=1481563942]
Canadian is Nasty Ice Storm for S Ark, N LA, W TN, and N MS next week!
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it's an interesting system as there will be cold air around. would just depend on timing of the cold moving  out and the moisture moving in

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the cmc also is very close to crushing the Carolinas mid week . just need it to go negative tilt and boom
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Storm5 link said:
the cmc also is very close to crushing the Carolinas mid week . just need it to go negative tilt and boom
f8349781e19baf6e763d555348041b84.jpg
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I just keep thinking about Dec 2010. I remember there were a couple of threats that showed up on the models that didn't pan out before we got the big storm on Christmas. This feels really similar to what happened then.
 
Lets not forget that December 2010 was also a moderate El Nino.  This year is quite different.
 
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