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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

DadOfJax said:
You know its rough when only 4 counties in the lower 48 are under some sort of winter weather notification in mid Dec. Currently 2 in California and 2 in Texas (WWA's). OUCH!
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It’s just the calm before the storm. Lol.
Pattern is relaxing. We will have plenty to talk about here in about a week.
 
We may have to start talking about drought conditions if this keeps up. After this weekend, GFS has no type of rain event at all til around hour 300. Y’all will be begging for cold rain by then
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We may have to start talking about drought conditions if this keeps up. After this weekend, GFS has no type of rain event at all til around hour 300. Y’all will be begging for cold rain by then
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You're starting to get annoying with the constant negativity. Most of your posts fit more in banter than discussion. Try harder.
 
I was going to ask last night what happened in the winter of 09/10. If my memory is right didn’t that winter look dead until about the middle of January and then suddenly winter came roaring back.?.


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DadOfJax said:
You're starting to get annoying with the constant negativity. Most of your posts fit more in banter than discussion. Try harder.
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Drought was a hyperbole. You can look at the 06z GFS yourself. Bone dry after this weekend til around 300. I don’t make the weather, Dad
 
BHS1975 said:
The ground is mush it would take a month to dry out.


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I’m getting new gutters installed next week so that would be my luck. Everything dries out when the new gutters go up
 
I’m looking forward to some sunshine. It’s been way to dreary in Atlanta this fall. After this weekend we should get a good stretch before the Christmas storm system.


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If only that B$$$$ in the SW would kick
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12z GFS also dry after this weekend. No precipitation showing up for nearly 12 days. Of course this is subject to change. Hr156 is close to being a rain event for some. Anyway, don’t shoot the messenger please
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
12z GFS also dry after this weekend. No precipitation showing up for nearly 12 days. Of course this is subject to change. Hr156 is close to being a rain event for some. Anyway, don’t shoot the messenger please
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It will nice to dry out a little bit. We are like 5 inches above normal for the year on rain.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
12z GFS also dry after this weekend. No precipitation showing up for nearly 12 days. Of course this is subject to change. Hr156 is close to being a rain event for some. Anyway, don’t shoot the messenger please
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Yes a dry period would be nice, my yard has been soggy since September. At least the dry period gives us time to do some yard work and trim some limbs so when the snow storm(s)come we done have to worry about them falling on the house due to 2 feet of snow and 5in of ice.
 
If that GFS look is close to right, that’s not just going to sit and spin off the coast of CA, the flow is too fast on the STJ! It’s coming out, just hope the 500mb pattern is close to right!
 
I really, really hate waiting 4 weeks during the heart of winter for the pattern to change to something that can produce snow. I mean, I'm fine to take a week off...even two weeks, if we must. But these multi-week periods where the cold abandons our side of the globe are just so sucky to have to deal with.
 
deltadog03 said:
I really don't think the pattern is that bad. Yes it's not brutally cold or super wintry, but it's not awful either. Relative to normal, it's actually not that bad considering we always go through patterns like this.
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And it was 70 here the week before this past winter storm. People seem to forget that we can go from nothing to a big storm quickly.
 
Very rarely do we get snow in major cold. Yes, without major cold up north, we definitely are threading the needle even more so...but I'd rather it be anything other than deep trough suppression city.
 
Storm5 said:
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I don't know that person.....but to call a model a terrible model because of wild OP swings is kind of silly, to be honest. Yes, all models are bad at times, but I wouldn't say the model is terrible...SMDH....I will say when we start seeing wild swings in the model runs, that usually tells me that the pattern is starting to change and a pattern change is likely on its way.
 
deltadog03 said:
I really don't think the pattern is that bad. Yes it's not brutally cold or super wintry, but it's not awful either. Relative to normal, it's actually not that bad considering we always go through patterns like this.
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It's not a bad pattern as in temps are going to be blazing into the 70s and 80s. But it doesn't look like it will be conducive to any wintry threats for most of the SE. There isn't enough of a cold air tap, and there is the usual dirth of high pressure to the north. Plenty of lows swinging by up there, though. It's what happens when you have an energetic Pac Jet with no sustained PNA. This is all speculation based on what the models are showing currently. It might change at 18z. But I'm starting to have this feeling that we're going to still be having this discussion at the end of the month.
 
deltadog03 said:
I don't know that person.....but to call a model a terrible model because of wild OP swings is kind of silly, to be honest. Yes, all models are bad at times, but I wouldn't say the model is terrible...SMDH....I will say when we start seeing wild swings in the model runs, that usually tells me that the pattern is starting to change and a pattern change is likely on its way.
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Totally agree. Wonder what model would he take over the Euro, lol?
 
Rain Cold said:
It's not a bad pattern as in temps are going to be blazing into the 70s and 80s. But it doesn't look like it will be conducive to any wintry threats for most of the SE. There isn't enough of a cold air tap, and there is the usual dirth of high pressure to the north. Plenty of lows swinging by up there, though. It's what happens when you have an energetic Pac Jet with no sustained PNA. This is all speculation based on what the models are showing currently. It might change at 18z. But I'm starting to have this feeling that we're going to still be having this discussion at the end of the month.
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Very true. And honestly we might. Once we kick the MJO out of warm phases it should help
 
whatalife said:
I was going to ask last night what happened in the winter of 09/10. If my memory is right didn’t that winter look dead until about the middle of January and then suddenly winter came roaring back.?.


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I believe you are correct. I remember no winter storms happening as is usually the case 95% of the time in December. As soon as January hit though we got some serious cold and some snow also. The lakes and streams around here froze solid and although minor it snowed off and on for 4-5 days in the first 10 days of January. Then late in the month we received a 6 inch snow followed by a couple more snow storms in February!
 
deltadog03 said:
Very true. And honestly we might. Once we kick the MJO out of warm phases it should help
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Speaking of MJO, since it’s somewhat slow in here, can someone give me a brief synopsis of what this is/how it works? Or point me to an article where I can get some learns on this? Thanks!
 
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