Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

[TarHeelSnow]

I don’t even remember the last time I saw a clown map for an upcoming storm ?

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

I don’t even remember the last time I saw a clown map for an upcoming storm ?

We suck so bad even the models have learned its not gonna snow here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

At this point if your looking for hope in NC, you want a further west/more nuetral/- tilted piece of energy here (this is the last piece of NS Energy in this setup) as this allows some precip to breakout ahead of the upper level trough, and at this point 850s are well below freezing

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

At this rate, Los Angeles will see snow before us. Good god. And I don't mean the foothills or mountains of LA. I mean the city itself. SMDH.

I predict downtown Houston will see snow before Charlotte this winter ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rgem about to provide the goods for VA per this shift

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep

 

[SD]

Yep View attachment 55877

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yep View attachment 55877

I’ll take my chances here with that look. Much much more qpf.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[RVD]

Yep View attachment 55877

Yeah maybe we could see something on the back end if this is the way models are going to trend?

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 55878

Here’s another map, I’ll take my chances with this setup, 0.1 FTW!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah maybe we could see something on the back end if this is the way models are going to trend?

Maybe, I guess the way we was looking before isn’t working out no more so I say let’s trend the way we’re trending now

 

[TarHeelSnow]

Here’s another map, I’ll take my chances with this setup, 0.1 FTW!
View attachment 55880

I stand corrected. THIS is a clown map.

 

[RVD]

Yeah so if we're doomed to have the first N/S piece slow down and interact more, increasing/amping that --> heavier precip (rain) at first, then as the second upper level trough approaches and provides cold air and additional forcing we might be able to see some flakes:

 

[RVD]

Maybe, I guess the way we was looking before isn’t working out no more so I say let’s trend the way we’re trending now View attachment 55883

Exactly

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs is slowly doing what the ICON/RGEM has done, I guess it’s progressive bias played a role in its fail and it mislead me yesterday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wowwwwsa

 

[Ollie Williams]

WowwwwsaView attachment 55885

I wonder if there is any way we can get snow with this look, or will it just cut off at the VA border or maybe @metwannabe’s house if we’re lucky?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wonder if there is any way we can get snow with this look, or will it just cut off at the VA border or maybe @metwannabe’s house if we’re lucky?

Now we need the opposite, and earlier phase between the energy, and then the last part to tilt favorably and more south and that could introduce wrap around backend snow into NC

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Gfs is slowly doing what the ICON/RGEM has done, I guess it’s progressive bias played a role in its fail and it mislead me yesterday View attachment 55884

Like I said. Icon has been the most consistent model

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