Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance

[superjames1992]

Yeah these soundings won’t cut it View attachment 55859

Rates will overcome all. modernweenie

 

[Stormdoc]

WowwwwsaView attachment 55885

Ok so now we root for that NS energy to hang back even more, strengthening the upper level low on the backside?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ok so now we root for that NS energy to hang back even more, strengthening the upper level low on the backside?

Yes, that gives us a chance at getting some backside precip going

 

[SD]

Want to see how the 0z runs handle the wave interactions. The rgem and icon handle the northern mid atlantic energy differently than the gfs nam euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Want to see how the 0z runs handle the wave interactions. The rgem and icon handle the northern mid atlantic energy differently than the gfs nam euro

Hopefully they keep keeping going that way, puts more people in play, the better UL energy, the more expansive the precip sheild would be and by that time 850s are already -2 to -6 across NC, rates can take care of the rest, but ATM NE NC stands the best chance at some snowflakes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Like I been saying it’s sort a good thing models have been all over the place due to known and unknown causes, it gives more room for trends

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Even if this does fail it’s been fun tracking this tho, helps you learn more

 

[Myfrotho704_]

VA system on euro, but it changed quite a bit compared to 12z in which now is the right direction

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS looked good for VA and even tried throwing a bone for NC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I guess we have to get back to this look
Yesterday’s 18z tonight’s 00z
We have to get back a stronger and more closed off upper level trough/low again, it’s been improving but I don’t know if we have enough time

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam 3km is also doing the same by trying to strengthen the 3rd northern stream piece again, but it’s a bit to Far East for my liking

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Nam 3km is also doing the same by trying to strengthen the 3rd northern stream piece again, but it’s a bit to Far East for my liking View attachment 55914View attachment 55915

We need a West trend!

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

as much as I hate to say it, this one is beginning to go on life support if your outside of VA

 

[Nomanslandva]

as much as I hate to say it, this one is beginning to go on life support if your outside of VA

ICON rained up here...Not good. But no sun angle at 4 AM so maybe white rain can stick.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If your outside VA or the NC mountains and maybe NE NC, this one is probably over, however in WNC/the piedmont into SC, there may be some showers in the afternoon/evening that fire under the cold pocket aloft with maybe some small hail/graupel/snow pellets, melting layer under these cells is around 900-925 mb so it would be difficult to get snow to make it to the surface

 

[Rain Cold]

Wow this turned around quickly!

 

[Stormsfury]

If your outside VA or the NC mountains and maybe NE NC, this one is probably over, however in WNC/the piedmont into SC, there may be some showers in the afternoon/evening that fire under the cold pocket aloft with maybe some small hail/graupel/snow pellets, melting layer under these cells is around 900-925 mb so it would be difficult to get snow to make it to the surface View attachment 55938View attachment 55939

Yeah...KCHS mentioned that H500 temps will be as low as -25C Monday Afternoon with the upper low passage which could spark graupel..
HRRR run there showing some crazy connective elements...with this new upgrade, it'll be interesting to see how this upgrade pans out...

 

[JJr]

If your outside VA or the NC mountains and maybe NE NC, this one is probably over, however in WNC/the piedmont into SC, there may be some showers in the afternoon/evening that fire under the cold pocket aloft with maybe some small hail/graupel/snow pellets, melting layer under these cells is around 900-925 mb so it would be difficult to get snow to make it to the surface View attachment 55938View attachment 55939

I was hoping this system would at least give most east of the mountains a few novelty flakes.
Thanks for all the PBP analysis you others do

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@metwannabe special ?!

 

[SD]

So close yet so far