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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Happy hour
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I guess we need the northwest trend now. Not saying it will happen this time, but this seems to be a pattern with the models the last few years. They show a potential storm, then the precip goes further south and east, only to come back northwest the closer we get.
Yep, and it’s not like the nam was terrible either, just shift the precip 30-50 miles NW and you have snow breaking out (rates help tremendously)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snowing all the way down to the Mexico border with this system, I’ll feel shafted if we don’t at least eek out a few flurries somewhere in the Carolinas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol I was wondering why no one posted the 12z EPS yet, it must have sucked & it did.
Charlotte precip shield is up in full force!
Charlotte precip shield is up in full force!
I honestly completely forgot about it, and I’m glad I did
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Alpine is close to 5,000' in elevation. When you are far south and have elevation then it's a different story.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mt Locke, TX's (south of Ft Stockton) snow climo is roughly equivalent to Greensboro, NC, it still would hurt seeing them get snow while we don't
Dont know how good the HRRRV4 is in the more longer range but it’s a improvement with the southern wave Vs last run
12z
18
12z
18
Metwannabe special ??
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
At this point I am not paying attention to the euro or gfs whatsoever. They are not short range models. It's all about the nam icon hrrr ukie and eventually rap
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z NAM looks a wee bit colder than 12z thus far in NC & VA prior to precip arriving.
Nam is trending to less stream separation and actually getting them closer and closer, but the response has been a NW trend in the precip sheild 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Meaty, just way too warm
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah these soundings won’t cut it 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Sloppy inch or two for the mtns on 18Z NAM. Good trend on the NAM with precip.