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Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Not mad but not happy 
RVD
Meteorology Student
The second northern stream piece has trended weaker the past few runs, which I'm worried is related to it getting sampled more. Not a good thing.
Yeah, it trended in the wrong direction, but I don't think it was enough to really cause the waves to interact like the other models. Verbatim I'm okay, but on a larger scale, I'm devastated.
Lol, womp nothing this run.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I think the gfs had a hiccup earlier. While it was fun to look at we knew it wouldn't last. Icon has been the most consistent model so far.
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cd2play
Member
Welp; another damn ULL with no cold air around. 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS is also crappy. Good night folks
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're definitely gonna need enough lift here to saturate/activate the DGZ, light-very light precip isn't gonna cut it and will keep everyone liquid in such a case virtually regardless of 850-925 mb temps. Even if we had the cold air in place at the sfc to snow, if the DGZ is dry, you typically end up w/ freezing drizzle, not snow.
Like the trend with That wave in PA on cmc but the N/S energy in IL is getting weaker 
Avalanche
Member
Running short on time to iron this out. So close, yet so far away. (Hall & Oates).
What a massive shift to the GFS on the UK...
Old
New
while I think precip was to far south, glad to see it trend to the GFS
Old
New
while I think precip was to far south, glad to see it trend to the GFSAvalanche
Member
I guess we can get a SW trend afterall.
Hugely Workable vs the 12z run , sfc temps are just to warm, this trend is encouring here 
Avalanche
Member
Surface temps and lack of moisture. 850 check.
UK soundings across CLT/GSO/WNC reveal if you could get heavy enough precip, you could get snow, and DGZs look good 
Jeremy Camp
Member
Clem282340
Member
What about the upstate
Warmer over the upstate although the very NW part is cold enough