Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I would gladly take this and run in Fayetteville, NC...
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RollTide18
Member
Snow into Ga too lol...
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Lol CMC wants to turn this into a near boardwide winter storm.
Going back to looking at 00z GFS vs 12z run is like night and day over the CAD regions. Its MUCH colder on the 12z run vs the 6z and 0z. The GFS is trending toward the euro and cmc so far on this. Wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS correct even colder with 2m Temps as we get closer.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Please let the CMC be right this one time.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Damn CMC much more of a board wide event! More snow and sleet vs ZR as well!
Cary_Snow95
Member
Ratios would be really good on the cmc. Temps on the low 20s with snow falling. Don’t see that often
I'd gladly take 2-3 inches of snow than the 3/4"-1"+ ZR it's been laying down...only model showing this scenerio though.
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Storm5
Member
Lol the cmc . Too bad it’s the cmc
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah you could nearly double the totals in areas well away from mixing w/ IP & ZR w/ temps < 25F verbatim... But unfortunately it's the CMC, however the CMC has been comparable to the GFS of late wrt N hem z500 skill scores
I know it's the CMC and we should all run. Lol I will say that makes for a very interesting euro run today tho. Gfs is trying it's trending better
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
CMC has a conveyor belt of winter storms, round 4 (after Dec 27, Dec 28-29, Jan 1-3) is waiting in the wings near truncation over TX... Given that other models are showing a similar general solution, this is an extremely active pattern and nearly every storm system that goes by has a legitimate chance to produce wintry weather in the southeastern US after Christmas.
RollTide18
Member
I'd argue that the CMC did better with the last storm than the GFS.
BHS1975
Member
Yes this is banter feel free to move it. I'll take both the cmc and gfs
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Actually could be as many as 4 in a little over a week for some in the Carolinas and Ga
Stormsfury
Member
In regards to the CMC, it has a good rep on sniffing out SE winter storms..FWIW.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the CMC actually smoked most other models with our storm in early December and it performs pretty well with CAD events once we get inside day 5 which we are for the 28-29th event and potential appetizer on the 27th
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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When's the next DWD icon run?
Yellow Snow
Member
BTW, mets in Atlanta are starting to talk about the 12/28-29 ice storm threat.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think it runs near or just before when the UKMET comes out
Jean-Claude Van Nam
Member
CMC bringing the goods east of 65 and north of 20 in Bama. I’m reeling in that one.
How’s the 12z GEFS?
Storm5
Member
It’s actually a great run for i20. Problem is , it’s the coldest model and does not have much support for it being that cold in northern Alabama
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It just started running; will be abit.
Shawn is your confidence growing for us Lexington folks?
Very much so. Will grow greater if we get another Euro Wintry run.
What about southeast TN in this setup? Will CAD affect our area?
Stormsfury
Member
KCHS drops to 26° during the CMC event...120hr. Great chance to go over to IP wirh 850mb crashing down to 2C. I can't find 925mb temps
Pivotal has 925mb temps for CMC
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=925th&rh=2017122412&fh=120&r=us_se&dpdt=
Storm5
Member
12z ukmet looks like a whiff for most
Cary_Snow95
Member
This is trending like the March storm last winter. We wanted it to trend south and it trended too far and was a sheared mess. Hopefully this sw can recover in future runs
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
UKMET precipitation data only goes out to 72 HR on the metrocentre site and I don't see the 144 hr precip data for the 12z on weather.us yet
Storm5
Member
Massive gefs run
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What you mean?
GEFS looks better.
Storm5
Member
It looks like it has a weak wave that only brings wintry precip to North Carolina it looks like