Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
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So according to the thread dates, the NAM should be In range soon....:weenie:....sorry... can’t help it.... i love all types of winter precipitation..., even ice storms....
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The energy coming in has been shown for the last few runs of the NAM; and it's close to the CMC/Euro.
This is a situation where it's obvious the cold is there, from the 1040+ high pressure. The GFS surface temps do not reflect the strength of the wedge or the general wetbulb/true temps. You can throw it's temperature profiles out.
On the flipside of that, the Euro is usually too warm in a CAD situation also. It has a major ice storm with temps pretty cold, along with dewpoints more than cold enough.
If there is precip in this storm, it is becoming more likely it will be a sleet/zr beast for GA/SC & parts of NC.
On the flipside of that, the Euro is usually too warm in a CAD situation also. It has a major ice storm with temps pretty cold, along with dewpoints more than cold enough.
If there is precip in this storm, it is becoming more likely it will be a sleet/zr beast for GA/SC & parts of NC.
Far Eastern Alabama, at this point, possibly.
Dang this is looking rough to say the least for the Midlands area. Need a stronger push to get more of a sleet profile.
We are looking at a Feb. 2014 deal again. Modeling had an ice storm through here, and luckily the core areas of Lexington, CAE, Sumter, Florence, Newberry, etc escaped with sleet.
Stormsfury
Member
I will be honest...the Midlands based on this run would likely have a better run at sleet. The inland coastal plain on this run is pretty much screwed ... with very damaging ice.
Cary_Snow95
Member
At this rate it looks like central NC is pushing towards a more snow event
Clem282340
Member
Can this storm amp up more like the cmc was showing
Last time I remember a wedge this string and models showing a major ZR in N GA...(can’t remember the year...2004 or 2005 maybe?). We ended up getting pounded with sleet! Temps fell into the teens at first but slowly warmed to the mid 20s and stayed there for the duration.
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Yes, there will likely be a slight NW shift; but the CAD means serious business. I do not see any low circulation getting much North of say, Macon, GA. At best.
I'm hoping we can get a repeat of that again, sleet wise! I remember the news outlets, etc. hyping it up as Icemageddon. Be great to escape again with more IP or SN vs dang Ice.
What about Atlanta...More ZR or sleet?
I hope you are right man! It's worrisome seeing those ice accumulation maps.
carolinachaos
Member
Clem282340
Member
I was hope maybe if we got a stronger push of cold air that all of the upstate would be just snow instead of sleet and freezing rain
Stormsfury
Member
The aloft temperatures are the issue. 850mb temperatures are 3-6C. Pronounced aloft melting layer, hence the ZR...if your depth of shallow cold air is sufficient, you will get sleet instead of ZR, but unfortunately not a SN sounding.
Clem282340
Member
Thanks do you think that the upstate still in the game since after the euro move moisture south some are there still a possibility this storm shift back nw some
Stormsfury
Member
The Upstate is on the fence. The 850mb 0C thermal line straddles just south of the NC/SC line...most likely sleet, but close enough to wriggle into snow with better rates.
What about Atlanta...u thoughts more ZR than sleet?
Clem282340
Member
Thanks for the info. Is there a possibility this storm can shift back to the nw some look like the better rates move south some towards Columbia area after the euro run
For my SC friends, @Stormsfury knows his stuff. In fact, back in the day from old boards, I learned a great majority from him on SC weather.
You got that right! I remember him , as you do from back then and he knows SC climate like few others do! When he speaks I pay attention, you can learn a lot from him.
Stormsfury
Member
Atlanta is always a tricky animal...seems to be on the fence with almost every storm. Based on the look, ZR/IP.
Stormsfury
Member
The push of cold, dry air damming into the region depicted on the CMC/EURO camp is absolutely a wicked animal. I am hoping that the push can extend into the 850mb-925mb layer and increase the chances of more IP vs ZR. KCHS right now right in that 32 line at the SFC. Being NW of that puts me at 30° with an 850mb layer eunning 6C... significant ZR sounding
I believe the wedge will get stronger each run. I have seen this before.
Anyone have the EPS and would care to divulge if it's similar to the OP?
don't think it's out yet.
I think it's on StormVista already, but can't access it.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Weak southern slider.... 850's creep into upstate SC this round.
Thanks for the information. That's a good thing, that the 850's are sliding further south. Hope that trend continues.
Clem282340
Member
How for south did it creep down in the upstate
Precip still gets in to make an ice storm I would assume?
^^ To go with the above; that is very telling; because the members run off the lower resolution control. So if the control is dry and even the members are wetter; we have a problem (for an ice storm).
We have members with 0.10 - 2.5 inches of precip. Wide variety... I feel comfy with the operational's idea at this point.
We have members with 0.10 - 2.5 inches of precip. Wide variety... I feel comfy with the operational's idea at this point.
Let's just make this thing a sleet storm...I hope we trended colder in the mid levels.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
yeah shawn, this is the most confident i have been since 2014 about our areas seeing freezing/frozen precipitation. I also feel very confident at this lead that someone is going to get a legit >.25" accretion ice storm..